- 1 Everton vs Chelsea: unbeaten Toffees against the league’s most dangerous front three
- 2 Everton: joint-best defence in the league, but four draws in six
- 3 Chelsea: Joao Pedro leads the league in goal involvements, but 13 conceded in six
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Everton vs Chelsea
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Everton vs Chelsea: unbeaten Toffees against the league’s most dangerous front three 
Six games, zero defeats. Everton have earned the right to be taken seriously, and Saturday’s visit of Chelsea to the Hill Dickinson Stadium is where that reputation gets stress-tested.
The table couldn’t be tighter. Both sides sit on 10 points from six matches, Everton fifth on a tiebreaker, Chelsea sixth. Kick-off is at 13:30 Paris time, and the winner steps straight into the top-four conversation.
Here’s the catch for David Moyes. Four of those six unbeaten games were draws. Everton don’t lose, but they don’t kill games off either, and last weekend’s 2-2 at newly promoted Hull City showed exactly that.
Chelsea arrive with the opposite profile. They put five past Bournemouth last time out, and they’ve shipped 13 goals in six league matches. Wild at both ends. That’s Xabi Alonso’s first few months in a sentence.
So what gives first: an Everton defence that’s joint-best in the division, or a Chelsea attack built around Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers? The numbers point one way, and it isn’t towards a home win.
The market agrees. Chelsea are priced at 2.17 at best, Everton at 3.15, and the draw sits at 3.45. That’s a fair reflection of a visiting side with more firepower against a home side that’s very hard to beat.
Everton: joint-best defence in the league, but four draws in six 
Start with what Moyes has built at the back. Everton own the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League right now, with James Tarkowski still the anchor. That isn’t a fluke after six games. It’s a side that knows what it’s about.
The trouble is the other end. A 1-0 home win over Ipswich, then a 2-2 draw at Hull. Everton grind. They rarely run away with anything.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has been the spark. He was decisive twice at Hull, he’s on two goals and an assist in the league, and his pressing has led directly to two goals this season. Thierno Barry, with three league goals, scored again last weekend after a slow-burning first season under Moyes.
Team news is mixed. Left-back Vitalii Mykolenko came back injured from international duty with Ukraine and is a genuine doubt. Right-back Röhl and midfielder Christian Nørgaard, signed from Arsenal this summer, were back in the squad last weekend without getting on the pitch.
Jack Grealish, back at the club since the summer, is available, as are wide men Johnson and George, the latter on one league goal. There’s no shortage of bodies in the attacking midfield line.
Everton have already drawn with Spurs and Manchester United, so they’ll back themselves to frustrate anyone. Four draws in six also tells you they struggle to finish teams off. Against this opponent, that’s a risk they can ill afford.
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Chelsea: Joao Pedro leads the league in goal involvements, but 13 conceded in six 
Eight goal contributions in six games. Joao Pedro has five goals and three assists, more involvements than anyone in the Premier League, and he scored twice in the 5-1 demolition of Bournemouth.
He isn’t doing it alone. Morgan Rogers has four league goals and an assist since arriving, Palmer has two goals and three assists and has just extended his contract, and the experienced Henderson has two goals and an assist from his two league outings. That’s a frightening spread of threat for any back line.
The defence is another story. Chelsea have conceded 13 times in six league matches, and right before the break they were beaten 3-0 at Brentford, part of a three-game run without a win. It makes for uncomfortable reading for a club chasing Champions League football.
Alonso came in this summer after a 10th-place finish last season. The attacking identity is already obvious. The game management isn’t, and that’s what separates a top-four side from a sixth-placed one.
Absences are limited. Jamie Gittens is still out, Emmanuel Emegha, signed from Strasbourg this summer, hasn’t played yet and remains unavailable, and Reece James is a question mark. Italian full-back Palestra made his debut off the bench last weekend.
No fixing the leaks with one lineup change. But Chelsea don’t need clean sheets to win games like this. They need two goals, and they’ve got three players capable of providing them.
Probable lineup Everton: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Chelsea: Not announced at time of publication
Free Premier League Prediction: Everton vs Chelsea
Our prediction: Draw or Chelsea & Over 1.5 goals (odds 1.49)
Chelsea carry more attacking quality into this game than anyone Everton have faced so far. Joao Pedro, Palmer and Rogers have 11 league goals between them, and even a defence as disciplined as Everton’s has to deal with three different threats at once. We don’t see the Toffees shutting that out for 90 minutes.
We’re not going all the way to a straight away win. Everton haven’t lost yet, and a draw is a realistic outcome against a Chelsea side conceding more than two a game. The double chance covers the Blues and the stalemate.
The goals line is the extra layer. Everton just drew 2-2 at Hull, Chelsea scored five in their last outing, and both teams have strikers in form. Two goals or more, with Everton not winning: that’s the play at 1.49.
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