- 1 England vs Croatia: Kane’s 126th cap against a side that has conceded 11 to England since June
- 2 England: 12 goals in three games, but Saka and Rashford are missing
- 3 Croatia: Perišić suspended and 14 goals conceded in four group games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: England vs Croatia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
England vs Croatia: Kane’s 126th cap against a side that has conceded 11 to England since June 
Harry Kane equalled Peter Shilton’s record of 125 England caps in the October window. If he plays at Wembley on Thursday, he becomes the most-capped player in the history of the men’s national team. He has scored four times against Thursday’s opponents since June.
England meet Croatia on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time, on matchday five of League A, Group 3. The two sides have already played twice in 2026. England won 4-2 in Arlington at the World Cup on 17 June, with Kane scoring twice, and then won 7-0 in Rijeka on 3 October, a game played behind closed doors because of a UEFA sanction.
That second result was 4-0 at half-time. Kane and Bukayo Saka scored two each, and Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers added the rest. Across two meetings this year, Croatia have conceded 11 goals to Thomas Tuchel’s side.
The table follows that pattern. Spain lead the group with 12 points and are already through to the quarter-finals. England are second on nine, with 14 goals scored and three conceded, a goal difference of plus 11. Croatia have three points and a goal difference of minus 10, and Czechia are bottom on zero.
England need to avoid defeat to guarantee a quarter-final place, before a trip to Madrid on Sunday. We don’t expect them to settle for that. A side that has scored 12 in its last three group games is facing a defence that has conceded 14 in four, and we think the goal line is where the value sits.
England: 12 goals in three games, but Saka and Rashford are missing 
The group started badly. Spain won 3-2 at Wembley on 26 September, after England had led at half-time through Gordon and Kane. Lamine Yamal, Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal scored for Spain, and Kane hit the crossbar with a second-half penalty.
England have won all three games since. They beat Czechia 2-0 in Prague on 29 September, with Gordon and Kane scoring, put seven past Croatia, and then beat Czechia 3-0 at Wembley on 6 October, when Vladimír Coufal scored an own goal and Kane added two more.
Kane has six goals in this Nations League campaign. Gordon has three, including England’s first goal against Spain. The supply from wide areas changes this time, though: Saka, who scored twice in Rijeka, is injured, and so is Marcus Rashford, who scored against Croatia in June.
Tuchel has also left out Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Kobbie Mainoo. Jobe Bellingham and Josh King are in the squad for the first time, Declan Rice and Djed Spence are back from injury, and Ben White has his first call-up since March. Eberechi Eze, Morgan Gibbs-White, Rogers and Gordon give Tuchel four options behind Kane.
Defensively, England have kept three clean sheets in a row in the group. Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa are both in the squad, and Konsa scored in the 6-4 win over France in the World Cup third-place match in July.
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Croatia: Perišić suspended and 14 goals conceded in four group games 
Slaven Bilić took over in July, after Zlatko Dalić stepped down following the World Cup round-of-32 defeat to Portugal in Toronto. His first game was a 2-1 win in Czechia on 26 September, with Luka Modrić and Marco Pašalić scoring. Croatia haven’t won since.
Spain beat them 4-1 in Seville three days later, England scored seven in Rijeka, and Spain then won 2-1 in Split on 6 October with two late goals from Mikel Merino. Croatia led that game through an Ivan Perišić header before half-time.
Perišić was sent off on 79 minutes in Split for a second yellow card and serves a one-match ban at Wembley. He scored Croatia’s goal in the 2-1 round-of-32 defeat to Portugal and their goal in Split, so Bilić loses the forward who scored in two of their last four defeats.
The injury list adds to it. Josip Pongračić has a hamstring problem and Franjo Ivanović is out with a mild concussion. Andrej Kramarić and Nikola Vlašić aren’t in the latest squad list, and Hajduk Split pair Hrgović and Šotiček have been called up for the first time.
Croatia are 12th in the FIFA ranking, have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals and have lost their last six matches against teams in the top ten. Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Joško Gvardiol are all in the squad, but the defence has let in 3.5 goals a game in this group.
Probable lineup England: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Croatia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: England vs Croatia
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (1.51)
England’s win is priced around 1.23, which is too short to back. The goal line gives a better route to the same reading of the match: England have scored 12 in their last three group games, and Croatia have conceded 14 in four.
The two meetings this year produced six goals in Arlington and seven in Rijeka. Saka’s injury takes out one of the scorers from October, and that’s the one argument for a tighter game, but England still have Kane, Gordon and Rogers, and Croatia are without Perišić at the other end.
Croatia have also conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals. At 1.51, we’re backing three or more goals at Wembley, with England doing most of the scoring.
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