- 1 Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters: 17 regular-season wins up against 46 points in the semi-final, two arguments that point in different directions
- 2 Dolphins: a week off after a second-half job in Auckland
- 3 Sydney Roosters: a 46-10 hammering of Cronulla, but a third game in three weeks
- 4 NRL prediction Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters
- 5 Before we start, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters: 17 regular-season wins up against 46 points in the semi-final, two arguments that point in different directions 
The Dolphins finished the 2026 regular season in third place, with 17 wins and 7 defeats. Sydney Roosters, meanwhile, arrive off the back of a 46-point haul in their last outing.
The two sides meet on Friday 25 September at 11:50, at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, in a knockout preliminary final.
The winner goes to the Grand Final. The loser is done that night, with no second chance left at this stage of the competition.
It is the first time in their history that the Redcliffe club will host a preliminary final at home. The Dolphins have never reached the Grand Final since joining the NRL.
The Roosters, though, have already played two finals this year, while the Dolphins have only had one. Freshness may be the biggest hard number in this showdown.
The other semi-final pits Penrith against Newcastle on Sunday 27 September at Accor Stadium. So Friday’s winner will know their Grand Final opponent two days later.
The Dolphins are playing the biggest match in their short NRL history. A win on Friday would put them into a first Grand Final.
The Roosters know this kind of stage inside out. They had 38 points on the table heading into the final round of the regular season.
Suncorp Stadium is the only Queensland venue booked for this finals week. The other three semi-finalists still standing are all based in New South Wales.
Dolphins: a week off after a second-half job in Auckland 
The Dolphins booked their home preliminary final by beating the New Zealand Warriors 26-16 on 12 September. The match was played at Go Media Stadium in Auckland, hostile ground and all.
The script mattered. Down 12-8 at the break, the Queensland side took control after half-time and finished with a 10-point cushion.
That sort of comeback away from home, in a do-or-die game, says plenty about the group’s mentality. It also earned them the most valuable prize in the finals calendar: a week off.
Their regular-season record underlines the consistency: 17 wins from 24 games, a return above 70%. Only two teams were better across the full campaign.
Suncorp Stadium changes the picture too. The Dolphins will play their first game of this size there, in front of a crowd that has never had a night like this to savour.
The market reflects that with a 1.63 price and a line set at minus 3.5 in their favour. The bookmakers do not expect a blowout, just a tight win.
That qualifying-final victory in Auckland carried double value. It bought them the bye and knocked out a side that had been on a six-game winning streak before the finals began.
The Dolphins, for their part, came into the finals on a seven-match winning run. That momentum has held into September, which is rare for a team with no real big-stage experience.
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Sydney Roosters: a 46-10 hammering of Cronulla, but a third game in three weeks 
The Roosters demolished Cronulla 46-10 in their knockout semi-final. It was the biggest winning margin seen in these 2026 finals so far.
That came after they had narrowly dodged elimination. Beaten 19-12 by Penrith in the qualifying final, the Sydney side had their season on the line against the Sharks.
The response was immediate and ruthless. Hitting 46 points against a side that had survived a sudden-death game a week earlier points to an attack that has clicked at just the right time.
The catch is the schedule. Friday will be their third match in three weeks, against a team coming in fresh after a full week to recover.
Add the interstate trip to Brisbane into the mix, and the edge starts to tilt the other way. The Roosters had already played their semi-final at Allianz Stadium, in familiar surroundings.
Priced at 2.37, they remain a live outsider after that last performance. The 45.5 total suggests points, which suits their style more than a trench fight.
Their finals run began with that 19-12 loss to Penrith at CommBank Stadium. They were up against the regular-season leaders at the time.
That defeat sent them straight into sudden death the following week. They answered with their best attacking display of the season, but it cost them energy the Dolphins have not had to burn.
Probable Dolphins lineup: Not confirmed at the time of publication.
Probable Sydney Roosters lineup: Not confirmed at the time of publication.
NRL prediction Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters
Our pick: Dolphins to win
The Dolphins head into this preliminary final with a week off, a record of 17 wins from 24 rounds and Suncorp Stadium behind them. The Roosters, by contrast, are coming off a third finals game and an interstate trip.
Their 46-10 win over Cronulla was eye-catching, but it followed a 19-12 defeat to Penrith that pushed them into sudden death. On the season as a whole, the consistency still sits with the Queensland side.
The 1.63 price gives solid value to the favourite in what the handicap line has marked out as a tight game. Back the Dolphins to get it done.
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