- 1 Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals: the league’s weakest red zone attack against a pass rush with 14 sacks
- 2 Miami Dolphins: no Achane, a 73.0 passer rating and an offence that can’t finish drives
- 3 Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow is sharp, but Chase and Higgins are both day to day
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals: the league’s weakest red zone attack against a pass rush with 14 sacks 
Forty-six points in four games. That’s Miami’s entire output this season, and it’s the number that frames Sunday’s meeting with Cincinnati at Hard Rock Stadium, kick-off 19:00 Paris time.
The Dolphins are 0-4 with a point differential of minus 55, the worst in the league. They’ve scored just four touchdowns, and they turn only 33.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the lowest rate in football. Losing De’Von Achane to a torn ACL against Kansas City has made a thin offence even thinner.
The Bengals aren’t flying either. They’re 2-2 after a 22-17 home defeat to Jacksonville last week, and they lost more than a game that afternoon. Ja’Marr Chase went into the concussion protocol after a second-quarter hit, and Tee Higgins picked up an adductor injury after catching 11 passes for 157 yards. Zac Taylor called both players day to day at the start of the week.
That uncertainty matters. The market has Cincinnati as a road favourite of around six and a half to seven and a half points, with the total sitting at 42.5. Last December, the Bengals won 45-21 in Miami, but that was a different season with different rosters.
Here’s the thing about this game: the side looks obvious, the spread doesn’t. And the total might be the cleanest angle of all.
Why? Because one team can’t score, and the other may be missing the two players who make its passing game dangerous.
Miami Dolphins: no Achane, a 73.0 passer rating and an offence that can’t finish drives 
Malik Willis has thrown for 712 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in four games. The team passer rating sits at 73.0, near the bottom of the league, and Miami average just 163.5 passing yards a game.
The ground game is where the Dolphins have found some joy. They average 4.3 yards a carry, and Ollie Gordon II has stepped into the lead role since Achane went down, with 17 carries for 41 yards and a touchdown in his first game as the starter. Jaylen Wright is the change of pace option.
That run-first identity is Miami’s only realistic route into this game. Slow it down, shorten the clock, use Willis’s legs to extend plays. Malik Washington is the most reliable target in the passing game, but there isn’t much depth behind him.
Defensively, the numbers make uncomfortable reading. Opponents post a 110.9 passer rating against Miami, the third-highest figure in the league, and teams convert 46.7% of their third downs. The Dolphins have also generated very little pressure, with one sack a game on average.
The quarterback situation adds another layer of doubt. Kyle McCord and Willis are the two options, with the starter set to be confirmed late in the week.
This is a side that knows what it has to do. Whether it can do it for four quarters is another question.
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Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow is sharp, but Chase and Higgins are both day to day 
Joe Burrow has thrown for 1,171 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. The Bengals average 277.5 passing yards a game and convert 45.3% of third downs, both strong numbers. On paper, this is a mismatch.
The problem is who’ll be catching the ball. Chase must clear the concussion protocol before he can play, and Higgins, who leads the team with 401 receiving yards, was hurt on the final drive against Jacksonville. If either misses out, Burrow’s options shrink to Mike Gesicki, Mitch Tinsley and Dohnte Meyers. They can run routes, but they don’t change a defence the way Chase does.
The defence has been the more reliable unit. Cincinnati have 14 sacks, among the best totals in the league, and they allow touchdowns on just 30.8% of opponents’ red zone trips. Against a Miami attack that already struggles inside the 20, that’s a significant edge.
Chase Brown leads the running game with 207 yards, without ever really breaking out. If the passing game is short-handed, he’ll be asked to carry more of the load, which tends to keep the clock running.
The ground game is the weaker part of the Cincinnati offence. The Bengals average 74.2 rushing yards a game at 3.6 a carry, which isn’t the profile of a side that runs opponents off the field.
The Bengals should win. How comfortably depends almost entirely on Friday’s injury report.
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: Not announced at time of publication (starting QB to be confirmed between Malik Willis and Kyle McCord, RB Ollie Gordon II, WR Malik Washington)
Probable lineup Cincinnati Bengals: Not announced at time of publication (QB Joe Burrow, RB Chase Brown, WR Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both day to day)
Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
Our prediction: Under 42.5 points
Miami have averaged 11.5 points a game. Even against a Bengals defence that’s been far from perfect, there’s little in their profile to suggest a breakout: they can’t finish drives, they’ve lost their best runner, and their passing game ranks near the bottom of the league. Cincinnati’s 30.8% red zone defence only makes that harder.
The Bengals should carry most of the scoring, but their ceiling drops sharply if Chase or Higgins are missing. A Cincinnati lead would also encourage Taylor to lean on Chase Brown and run the clock, while Miami’s run-heavy plan is designed to shorten the game from the other side.
The risk is a Burrow masterclass with both receivers cleared. Even then, Miami would need to add points of their own for this to fly over. We expect a Bengals win in a controlled, low-scoring game, and Under 42.5 points is our pick.
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