- 1 Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights: two penalty kills under 70% and a power play at 27%
- 2 Detroit Red Wings: Gibson at .874 and a 4-5 home loss to St. Louis
- 3 Vegas Golden Knights: Eichel’s 20 points and a penalty kill at 69.44%
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights: two penalty kills under 70% and a power play at 27% 
The last time Vegas played in Detroit, on 4 March, Tomas Hertl won it 4-3 in overtime with a power-play goal. Special teams decided that game, and the numbers say they could decide this one too.
The Golden Knights visit the Red Wings on Thursday 5 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET. Vegas is 9-5-1 and second in the Pacific Division with 19 points. Detroit is 6-5-3 with 15 points, tied for eighth in the Atlantic.
Detroit’s penalty kill has stopped 66.67% of power plays. Vegas is at 69.44%. Neither kill is stopping seven power plays in ten, and both teams’ power plays are working: 27.27% for Vegas, 21.74% for Detroit.
The schedule is almost identical for the two. Vegas plays in Boston on Monday and Pittsburgh on Tuesday before arriving in Detroit. The Red Wings play in Florida on Monday and Tampa on Tuesday, then fly home. Both get Wednesday off after a back-to-back.
Vegas also won the other meeting last season, 1-0 at home on 4 November 2025, so the two most recent games between these teams finished with one goal and seven.
With two leaky penalty kills and two tired teams, I see more value in the total than in either moneyline.
Detroit Red Wings: Gibson at .874 and a 4-5 home loss to St. Louis 
John Gibson gave up five goals on 15 shots against St. Louis on Saturday, and Detroit lost 5-4 at home. Through the end of October he’s 4-4-1 with a 3.15 goals-against average and an .874 save percentage.
Tarasov has better numbers in a small sample, 1-0-2 with a .940, but he missed a game on 26 October for an undisclosed reason. Todd McLellan’s goalie choice after a two-game Florida trip is one to watch.
The scoring is spread out. Alex DeBrincat leads with 15 points, Arvidsson has eight goals and 14 points, Raymond has 12 and Finnie nine. Detroit had scored 37 goals in 13 games before Saturday, then added four more against the Blues.
Recent results have bounced around. The Red Wings won 5-2 in Vancouver, 4-3 in a shootout in Edmonton and 4-1 at home to Chicago, but lost 4-1 in Calgary and 5-4 to St. Louis in the same stretch.
Dylan Larkin is active, though he’s been slow to start and has reportedly asked for a trade. Kasper (upper body) and Appleton are on injured reserve.
Detroit games have produced 84 goals in 14 matches, 41 for and 43 against. That’s six a game.
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Vegas Golden Knights: Eichel’s 20 points and a penalty kill at 69.44% 
Jack Eichel has 20 points, seven goals and 13 assists. Mark Stone has nine goals and 17 points, and Mitch Marner has 13 assists and 15 points. Barbashev adds 11.
That attack has produced 53 goals in 15 games, 3.53 a game, and the power play has scored 12 times from 44 chances. Vegas has also allowed 44, nearly three a night.
The penalty kill is the weakness under Ryan Craig, who took over as head coach in June. At 69.44%, Vegas concedes on almost one in three opposing power plays.
Neither goalie has separated himself. Carter Hart is 4-3-1 with an .889 save percentage and missed a game on 27 October for an undisclosed reason. Hill is 5-2-0 at .891.
The last six games show a team that can win big and lose big: 6-2 over Pittsburgh and 4-1 over Ottawa, but also 6-2 losses to Tampa Bay and in St. Louis, and a 5-2 defeat to New Jersey on 30 October.
Vegas games have produced 97 goals in 15 matches, an average of 6.47. Marner was listed out for personal reasons on 27 October, and his status for this trip hadn’t been confirmed at the time of writing.
Probable lineup Detroit Red Wings: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Vegas Golden Knights: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights
Our prediction: Over 5.5 goals
Vegas games average 6.47 goals and Detroit games average 6.0. Both teams carry penalty kills under 70% and power plays over 21%, and neither has a goalie above .891 among its regular starters this season, Tarasov’s small sample aside.
The argument for a tight game is fatigue. Both teams play a back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday, and tired legs sometimes slow everything down. The one-day break before Thursday, though, is the same for both, and tired defenses on bad penalty kills tend to give up more, not less.
Last season’s game in Detroit finished 4-3 in overtime. No odds had been posted at the time of writing, so check the total before puck drop: if the line opens at 6.5, the Over is still the side I’d lean to, at a smaller stake.
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