- 1 Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets: the first Jets trip to Dallas since the Hellebuyck trade
- 2 Dallas Stars: 2.29 goals allowed per game and a penalty kill at 89.7%
- 3 Winnipeg Jets: Connor’s 13 goals against a 69.4% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets: the first Jets trip to Dallas since the Hellebuyck trade 
On October 23, Winnipeg traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey. The return was Dawson Mercer, goaltender Nico Daws, prospect Alexander Command, the injured Nick Bjugstad and two draft picks. The Jets have played a very different kind of hockey since.
They went 0-6-2 between October 15 and November 1, a run that ended with a 7-0 loss in Carolina. Then came two wins: 5-4 in overtime in Montreal on November 3 and 6-2 at home to Vancouver on November 5, when Mercer scored his first goal for the club. Winnipeg are 6-8-3 with 15 points.
Dallas are 10-5-2 and haven’t played since a 4-3 win over San Jose on Saturday. Thomas Harley had a goal and two assists that night, and Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn and Jason Robertson also scored. The Stars get four full days off before this one.
Puck drops at 8:00pm ET on Thursday 12 November at American Airlines Center. Winnipeg host Tampa Bay on Sunday and New Jersey, with Hellebuyck in the other crease, on Tuesday. They fly south with one day in between.
These teams met in Dallas on October 22. The Stars outshot Winnipeg 38-19, needed a late Hintz goal with the goalie pulled to tie it, then won 3-2 in overtime on another Hintz finish. Stuart Skinner made 35 saves for the Jets and still lost.
Dallas Stars: 2.29 goals allowed per game and a penalty kill at 89.7% 
Dallas concede 2.29 goals per game and allow just 22.9 shots. Winnipeg’s equivalents are 3.53 and 29.1, and the special teams widen the gap: 27.5% on the power play, 89.7% on the penalty kill.
Jake Oettinger is 9-3-1 with a 1.99 GAA, a .906 save percentage and three shutouts. He started Saturday against San Jose after Casey DeSmith took the 2-1 shootout loss in Columbus on November 5. With four days off, I’d expect Oettinger back in net on Thursday.
Mikko Rantanen leads the team with 21 points (9 goals, 12 assists). Wyatt Johnston has 13 assists, and Hintz has the habit of scoring in this matchup: two of the three Dallas goals in the October 22 overtime win were his.
Home form is the one dent. The Stars are 6-4-0 at American Airlines Center, against 4-1-2 on the road, and they lost back-to-back home games in late October: 5-1 to New Jersey and 5-2 to Montreal. They answered with a 3-1 win over Columbus two days later.
Miro Heiskanen is listed out with an estimated return date of November 12, so he’s a game-time call. Matt Duchene is on long-term injured reserve until January. Without Heiskanen, the minutes fall to Harley, who has 3 points in his last game alone.
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Winnipeg Jets: Connor’s 13 goals against a 69.4% penalty kill 
Kyle Connor has 13 goals and 19 points, and he scored in the October meeting in Dallas. The Jets score 2.65 goals per game, a touch below Dallas, so the offense isn’t the main problem.
The defense is. Winnipeg allow 3.53 goals per game and kill only 69.4% of penalties. Against a Dallas power play converting 27.5%, that gap is the biggest single number in this preview.
In goal, the Jets have gone from one of the league’s best to a rotation. Skinner, who signed as a free agent in the summer, is 5-4-3 with a 3.28 GAA and an .885 save percentage. Clay Stevenson, claimed off waivers before the season, sits at 3.61 and .870. Daws arrived with the Hellebuyck deal.
Injuries have stripped the blue line. Josh Morrissey is on injured reserve, Haydn Fleury is day-to-day and Elias Salomonsson is out until the end of the month. Vladislav Namestnikov is also on IR until late November, and Bjugstad is long-term.
The road record is 3-4-2. Winnipeg also play twice at home before this trip, including the emotional Tuesday night against Hellebuyck, and the Stars will be the fresher team by two games to none since Saturday.
Probable lineup Dallas Stars: Jake Oettinger in goal (not confirmed); Rantanen, Hintz, Robertson, Johnston, Benn up front; Harley on defense (lines not announced)
Probable lineup Winnipeg Jets: Not announced at time of publication (Skinner likeliest in goal)
Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets
Our prediction: Dallas Stars to win in regulation time
Winnipeg concede 1.24 goals per game more than Dallas, and the special teams gap is wider still: an 89.7% kill against a 69.4% one. Oettinger has three shutouts already. Skinner hasn’t posted one.
The October game is the reason this isn’t a bigger call. Dallas needed a six-on-five goal and overtime to beat a Jets team that took 19 shots all night. I’d still take a rested Stars team at home over a Winnipeg group playing its third game in five days.
The two Jets wins last week came against Montreal and Vancouver. Dallas are a different level of opponent, and I’m backing them to settle it inside 60 minutes.
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