- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder: two injury reports, one unbeaten champion-level defense
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Dusty May has one win, and it came with Flagg on the floor for 17 minutes
- 3 Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-0, and Gilgeous-Alexander has carried the scoring as the bodies drop
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder: two injury reports, one unbeaten champion-level defense 
Jalen Williams was carried off on a stretcher late in Sunday’s 108-101 win over the Clippers with a severe left leg injury. No diagnosis has been announced, he’s out for Monday’s game against Phoenix, and Oklahoma City expects him to miss more time.
The Thunder lost more than Williams that night. Cason Wallace left in the first quarter with a left shoulder injury that may be a dislocation, and Jaylin Williams went out with a hand and wrist problem in the same period. Both are listed with no timeline.
Dallas has its own list. Cooper Flagg sprained his left shoulder on a flagrant foul in Indianapolis last Friday, missed Saturday’s game and is due to be re-evaluated this week. Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery, and Kyrie Irving is playing on a minutes limit after his ACL tear.
The game is Wednesday 28 October, 9:30pm ET at American Airlines Center. Oklahoma City is 3-0 and plays Phoenix on Monday on the second night of a back-to-back, then gets Tuesday off. Dallas is 1-2 and visits Miami on Monday before a day of rest of its own.
No prices had been posted for this game at the time of writing. We expect the Thunder to open as clear favorites, and we think that’s right even with the injuries, because the gap between these teams last season was 38 wins.
Dallas Mavericks: Dusty May has one win, and it came with Flagg on the floor for 17 minutes 
Dallas finished 26-56 last season, 12th in the West, and lost all three meetings with Oklahoma City: 101-94 and 100-87 at home, 132-111 on the road. Dusty May was hired in June to replace Jason Kidd, and the rebuild around Flagg is in its first weeks.
Flagg scored 32 in the 128-110 opening loss in Houston. Sasser added 17, Naji Marshall 16 and Irving 15, but the Mavericks gave up 128 and were never close in the second half.
The win came two nights later in Indianapolis, 121-105. Irving scored 24, P.J. Washington had 20 points and 13 rebounds, Christie added 16 and Marshall 15. Flagg played only 17 minutes and scored 14 before the shoulder injury ended his night.
Saturday’s 122-106 home loss to San Antonio came without both Flagg and Irving, who rested on the second night of a back-to-back. Sergio de Larrea scored 21 off the bench and Daniel Gafford had 12 points and nine rebounds, but Dallas turned it over 21 times. The starting five that night was Marshall, Zaccharie Risacher, Washington, Gafford and Christie.
The Mavericks are allowing 118.3 points per game and rank 24th in pace. A slow team that turns the ball over against a defense built on deflections and blocks tends to lose by double figures, and that’s what happened in all three meetings last season.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-0, and Gilgeous-Alexander has carried the scoring as the bodies drop 
Oklahoma City won 64 games last season and finished first in the West. Through three games of this one, the Thunder have beaten San Antonio 116-104 on the road, Denver 96-84 at home and the Clippers 108-101.
The defense has set the tone. In the first two games the Thunder allowed 188 points combined and blocked 19 shots, and Chet Holmgren posted 26 points, 24 rebounds and eight blocks across those two nights. Denver scored 84 in Oklahoma City and San Antonio managed 104 on its own floor.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 83 points in three games. He had 34 on 13-of-26 shooting against the Clippers, with Mitchell adding 18, Hartenstein 12 points and 12 rebounds and Caruso 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists.
Losing Jalen Williams hurts the half-court offense. He had 33 points and 12 rebounds in the first two games, and he was the second creator next to Gilgeous-Alexander. McCain, who scored 24 across the first two games, and Mitchell are the likely beneficiaries of the extra shots.
Depth was already thinner than usual before Sunday. Otega Oweh is out for the season with an Achilles tear, Nikola Topic has a back problem and Thomas Sorber a knee injury. If Wallace and Jaylin Williams also miss Wednesday, the Thunder are down to a short rotation, and that’s the strongest argument for Dallas.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication (last starters: Naji Marshall, Zaccharie Risacher, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Christie; Cooper Flagg doubtful)
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Our prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win
We’re backing Oklahoma City to win outright. The Thunder have held two of three opponents under 105, they have the best player on the floor, and they swept Dallas 3-0 last season with an average margin of 13.7 points. No price was available when we wrote this, and we’d only play it at 1.45 or longer.
The injuries are real, and they’re why we stop short of a spread pick. Jalen Williams is out, Wallace and Jaylin Williams are uncertain, and a short rotation can fade late on the road. If Flagg is cleared and Irving plays his full allotment, Dallas has enough scoring to keep this within single digits.
Even so, the Mavericks have turned it over 21 times in their last home game and have won once in three tries, against an Indiana team that gave the ball away 21 times itself. Gilgeous-Alexander against that defense is the matchup we trust.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply