- 1 Coventry City vs Newcastle United: one league goal all season against a side that always scores on the road
- 2 Coventry City: no home goals yet, and the striker options are thin
- 3 Newcastle United: scoring on every away trip, but the treatment room is crowded
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Coventry City vs Newcastle United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: one league goal all season against a side that always scores on the road 
One goal. That’s Coventry City’s entire Premier League output after five games, and it didn’t even come in front of their own supporters. On Monday night they host Newcastle United at the Coventry Building Society Arena, kick-off 21:00 Paris time, in the game that closes Gameweek 6.
It’s worth setting the scene properly. Coventry are back in the top flight for the first time since 2001 after winning the Championship last season, and the first month has been a hard education. Four straight league defeats opened the campaign, 10-0 on aggregate, before Jay Dasilva’s second-half finish won it 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on 19 September.
That result was the club’s first Premier League win since April 2001. It lifted Frank Lampard’s side off the bottom for a while, but it didn’t change the bigger picture: they’ve failed to score in both home league games, losing 1-0 to Hull City and 5-0 to Brighton.
Newcastle arrive in a very different place. Matthias Jaissle’s side are ninth, with two wins, two draws and one defeat. They beat Hull 2-1 at St James’ Park before the international break, a fortnight after a 4-1 hammering at Leeds that still takes some explaining.
The two clubs haven’t met since a 2010 Championship game that Newcastle won 4-1, and Coventry’s last win in this fixture goes back to a 1999 Premier League meeting. Newcastle have won the last seven. History doesn’t play the game. It does tell you which way the current has been running for a long time.
So what does Monday come down to? Mostly whether Coventry can find a goal from somewhere. Newcastle have scored in each of their three away matches across all competitions this season, and that’s exactly the kind of consistency the hosts haven’t shown yet.
Coventry City: no home goals yet, and the striker options are thin 
Start with the attack, because that’s where the problems sit. Haji Wright is out with a thigh injury, and Taiwo Awoniyi serves the last game of his ban after being sent off in the 5-0 defeat to Brighton. That leaves Brandon Thomas-Asante to lead the line on his own.
Thomas-Asante does bring something. He’s drawn nine fouls in just 228 minutes and he works hard without the ball, with nine interceptions to his name. But one forward running the channels isn’t the same as a goal threat, and Coventry have produced exactly one goal in five league outings.
The home record is the bigger worry. Two league defeats, then a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa in the EFL Cup. Three home games, three defeats.
There are positives at the back. Ethan Pinnock and Bobby Thomas were outstanding at the City Ground, and Thomas has taken 10 shots this season, the joint-highest figure of anyone involved on Monday. Think about that for a second: the side’s leading shot-taker is a centre-back. It tells you everything you need to know about where the creativity is coming from.
Milan van Ewijk is back in training after a hamstring problem and could return at right wing-back, although Caleb Yirenkyi has done enough to keep his place. Josh Eccles, Luke Woolfenden and Aurele Amenda are still sidelined. Jack Rudoni, with nine chances created, is the one player who can genuinely unlock a defence.
Lampard’s side have shown they can defend deep for 90 minutes. Chasing a goal at home while staying compact is a different job entirely, and nothing so far suggests they’ve cracked it.
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Newcastle United: scoring on every away trip, but the treatment room is crowded 
Three away games, three games with a Newcastle goal. That’s been the one constant in an uneven start under Jaissle, who’s overseen four wins from six in all competitions.
The road form includes a 2-0 win at Tottenham, probably their best performance of the season. It also includes that 4-1 defeat at Leeds, where the back line came apart. This is a team that can look sharp and fragile inside the same month, and that’s worth keeping in mind.
The Hull win summed them up. Joe Willock and Lewis Hall scored inside the first seven minutes, both set up by Harvey Barnes, the earliest any Newcastle player has ever provided two assists in a Premier League game. Then they gave up 22 shots and needed Hull to keep missing. They got away with it.
The injury list is long. Jacob Ramsey, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Will Osula and Anthony Elanga, who has two league goals, are all carrying problems, and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen is out for two months with a hamstring injury. Jaissle has said he expects “three or four” players back, with Joelinton and Nico Gonzalez the most likely.
Even so, the spine holds up. Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw have played plenty together, Hall has won nine tackles and created five chances from left-back, and Yoane Wissa leads the line. Willock, with two league goals, is the one arriving late into the box.
Newcastle don’t need to be brilliant here. They need to be patient, and they can ill afford to hand Coventry the kind of transitions that Hull enjoyed.
Probable lineup Coventry City: Rushworth; Mfuni, Pinnock, Thomas; Yirenkyi, Grimes, Onyeka, Dasilva; Rudoni, Mason-Clark; Thomas-Asante
Probable lineup Newcastle United: Hornicek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Willock; Murphy, Fernandez-Pardo, Barnes; Wissa
Free Football Prediction: Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Our prediction: Newcastle United to win (odds around 2.10)
The case rests on one stubborn number. Coventry haven’t scored at home in the league this season, and none of their five Premier League games has seen both teams score. Against a Newcastle side that’s found the net on every away trip, that’s a big gap to close.
Newcastle’s defensive wobbles are real, and the Hull game showed it. But Coventry are without Wright and Awoniyi, and they’ve rarely tested a goalkeeper in front of their own fans. If the visitors score first, it’s hard to see where the reply comes from.
At around 2.10, Newcastle to win is a fair price for the stronger, more complete team. For a second angle, both teams to score “No” at around 2.45 fits the same reading of the game. We see something like 0-2 or 1-2.
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