- 1 ASM Clermont vs Racing 92: twelfth against thirteenth, one point apart
- 2 ASM Clermont: two home wins, and three straight league defeats behind them
- 3 Racing 92: a 20-10 win at La Rochelle, and little to show on the road since
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: ASM Clermont vs Racing 92
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
ASM Clermont vs Racing 92: twelfth against thirteenth, one point apart 
One point separates twelfth from thirteenth in the Top 14, and on Saturday the two clubs holding those places meet at the Stade Marcel-Michelin. Clermont have 12 points from seven games, Racing 92 have 11. Only Vannes, on 5, sit below them.
Kick-off is Saturday 31 October at 13:30 UK time, the opening game of round 8. Both sides arrive off narrow defeats last weekend, and both of those defeats came with a losing bonus point that barely softened the blow.
Clermont’s defeat was the more damaging of the two: they led 16-6 at half-time at Vannes and were 23-6 up shortly after the restart, then conceded three tries and lost 27-26 when captain Francisco Gorrissen went over in the 79th minute. It was the bottom club’s first win of the season.
Racing lost 20-17 to Montpellier in Le Mans, where their home fixture had been moved. They thought they’d levelled it in the 76th minute, but Jordan Joseph’s try was ruled out by the video referee for obstruction, and a late penalty kick to touch missed its target.
The bookmakers have Clermont at 1.29 and Racing at 3.70. That’s a wide gap for two teams this close in the table, and most of it comes down to where the game is being played. I think the price on Clermont is about right on the result and wrong on the margin.
ASM Clermont: two home wins, and three straight league defeats behind them 
Clermont’s record at Marcel-Michelin this season reads two wins and one defeat. They beat Stade Français and Castres, the latter 20-6, and lost 23-22 to Union Bordeaux-Begles. Even that defeat came by a single point.
Away from home, they lost 38-13 at La Rochelle before the trip to Vannes, and the Rabine result made it three league defeats in a row. Before that league weekend, they’d also been beaten by Leinster in the Champions Cup.
“Notre rugby n’est pas assez précis,” Christophe Urios said after the Vannes defeat, and Anthime Hemery added that the side had failed to take its chances and lacked discipline at the moments that decided the game.
Harry Plummer kicked four penalties at Vannes, and Baptiste Jauneau and Giorgi Dzmanashvili scored the tries. Clermont scored 26 points and still lost, which points to the second half rather than the attack: they didn’t score a try after Dzmanashvili’s in the 46th minute.
Their numbers across the season are 166 points scored and 196 conceded, with four bonus points already banked. Apart from the 38-13 defeat at La Rochelle, Clermont’s losses this season have been tight ones, and the bonus-point count reflects that.
Their two home wins came against Stade Français and Castres, currently ninth and eleventh in the table, which is the level Racing are playing at right now. Clermont also have the more settled goal-kicker in Plummer, and in games decided by a score or less that has counted for a lot.
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Racing 92: a 20-10 win at La Rochelle, and little to show on the road since 
Racing have two league wins from seven. One was a 55-25 thrashing of Perpignan, the other a 20-10 win at La Rochelle, which remains their only success away from home. They lost at Bordeaux-Begles and 29-15 at Toulon.
Both home defeats have come by three points. Bayonne beat them 20-17, and Montpellier won by the same score in Le Mans last Saturday. That’s two three-point losses in front of their own supporters, one of them at a ground nobody at the club would choose.
Against Montpellier, Patrice Collazo’s side went in 12-10 down at half-time after Ibrahim Diallo’s yellow card in the 29th minute. Selestino Ravutaumada scored the first try from a move started by Max Spring, and Josua Tuisova crossed in the 68th minute to set up the late push.
The forwards dragged them back into that game in the last 20 minutes, with Taniela Tupou’s break leading to the disallowed Joseph try. Racing have the pack to stay in touch at Clermont. They’ve conceded 216 points in seven games, though, and only Bayonne, Perpignan and Lyon have let in more.
Racing sit on 11 points with three bonus points, so most of what they have came from two wins. Another losing bonus at Clermont would keep them in touch with the sides above. A defeat without one would leave them looking at Vannes rather than at Castres.
Probable lineup ASM Clermont: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Racing 92: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: ASM Clermont vs Racing 92
Our prediction: Clermont to win by 12 points or fewer
I’d back Clermont to win. They’ve won two of three at home, and the one defeat was by a point against the second-best side in the country. Racing’s only away win this season came at La Rochelle, and they’ve lost the other two road trips.
The margin needs more thought than the result. Clermont have lost by one point to Bordeaux-Begles and by one at Vannes, and Racing have lost twice by three at home. Neither of these teams has been putting opponents away, and Clermont’s 20-6 win over Castres came by 14 points, only just outside the line.
At 1.29 the straight Clermont win doesn’t pay enough, and Racing have the bench and the ball-carriers to stay within a converted try. A home win inside 12 points covers the result I expect while respecting a Racing side that has collected three bonus points this season.
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