- 1 Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks: two 0-1 teams, and a 23-0 run Boston still has to explain
- 2 Boston Celtics: Paul George scored 38 on debut, Jayson Tatum went 0-of-7 from three
- 3 New York Knicks: the champions shot 37% on banner night, but the roster is intact
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks: two 0-1 teams, and a 23-0 run Boston still has to explain 
The Celtics led Detroit 72-50 early in the third quarter on opening night and lost 121-113. The Pistons closed the game with a 23-0 run after trailing 99-89, and that collapse is the starting point for Friday’s game against the Knicks at TD Garden, tip-off 7pm ET on Prime Video.
New York’s opener went wrong in a different way. The defending champions raised their banner at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday and then lost 106-100 to Philadelphia, shooting 37% from the field. Jalen Brunson, last season’s Finals MVP, finished with 21 points on 6-of-19.
So both teams arrive at 0-1, both after losing games they could have won, and both have had three days to stew on it. Neither is on a back-to-back, which removes the usual early-season excuse about tired legs.
The market makes Boston a 2.5-point favourite, with the moneyline around 1.74 for the Celtics and 2.14 for the Knicks. The total sits at 223.5 at most books, with a range from 221.5 to 224.5. That’s a modest number for two teams who ranked 30th and 25th in pace last season.
Last season’s series went New York’s way, three wins to one, including a 111-89 win in Boston on 8 February when Brunson scored 31. I’d be careful about reading too much into a head-to-head from before the Jaylen Brown trade, but the Knicks’ roster is far closer to last year’s version than Boston’s is.
Boston Celtics: Paul George scored 38 on debut, Jayson Tatum went 0-of-7 from three 
The summer changed Boston Celtics’s identity. Jaylen Brown went to Philadelphia in the trade that brought Paul George to TD Garden, Mitchell Robinson arrived from the Knicks, and Mike Conley joined the bench. Joe Mazzulla now has a starting group of Derrick White, George, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh and Robinson.
George’s first night couldn’t have gone much better individually. He scored 38 points on 12-of-21 shooting with seven threes, a scoring record for a Celtics debut. White and Payton Pritchard added 17 each, and the team shot 45.5% overall with 17 made threes.
Tatum’s line tells the other half of the story. He scored 13 points with 11 assists, but he went 6-of-23 from the field and missed all seven of his threes. When the lead started to shrink in the fourth quarter, Boston had no second scorer who could steady things, and Detroit scored 23 straight points.
The rebounding margin also hurt. Detroit won the boards 49-39 and outscored Boston 76-55 after halftime, which points to a team that ran out of energy and size as the game wore on. Robinson’s arrival was supposed to fix that area, and he’ll face Karl-Anthony Towns, who took 12 rebounds against the Sixers.
The Celtics’ preseason was clean, four wins from four including two over Philadelphia, and the home numbers from last season show a team that keeps games low: only 17 of 45 home games went over the total. Devin Carter is out with mononucleosis, and no other Celtic is listed on the injury report.
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New York Knicks: the champions shot 37% on banner night, but the roster is intact 
The Knicks beat San Antonio 4-1 in the Finals in June and finished last season 59-23, first in the East. Mike Brown has kept the core together: Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Towns started again on Tuesday, with Landry Shamet, Andre Drummond and Jordan Clarkson among the new faces off the bench.
Tuesday’s loss came down to shooting. New York hit 37.2% from the field and 33.3% from three, and Brunson’s 6-of-19 was the clearest sign of a night when nothing dropped. Towns scored 19 with 12 rebounds, but he and Anunoby each picked up two early fouls, which disrupted the rotation in the first half.
The Knicks still won the glass with 53 rebounds and handed out 21 assists. They trailed 58-54 at halftime and were within reach until late, against a Philadelphia team now carrying Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey and Brown. That’s a tougher opening assignment than Boston’s.
There’s also a track record against the spread worth noting. New York went 49-33 ATS last season, a 59.8% cover rate, and 25-27 ATS on the road. They’ve won the last two meetings with Boston and six of the last ten overall.
The injury report is empty for New York. The one note of concern is the preseason, where the Knicks went 1-4, but preseason results from teams protecting their starters have rarely told us much about October form.
Probable lineup Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Mitchell Robinson
Probable lineup New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns
Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks
Our prediction: New York Knicks +2.5 at 1.91
Boston’s case rests on George repeating something close to his debut and on home court. I’d want more than one game of evidence that this new group can protect a lead, given that the same lineup gave up 23 straight points four days ago and lost the rebounding count by ten.
New York’s problem on Tuesday was shot-making, which tends to correct itself faster than structural issues. Brunson won’t shoot 6-of-19 often, the starting five is unchanged from a title team, and the Knicks’ rebounding edge (53 boards against Philadelphia) matches up well with a Boston team that was out-rebounded 49-39.
The 2.5 points give cover if the game is decided in the last possession, which a total of 223.5 between two slow teams suggests is likely. I’ll take the champions with the points at 1.91, with the Knicks moneyline at 2.14 as the bolder alternative.
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