- 1 Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos: the Under is 5-1 in Denver games and Bo Nix is under 200 yards in four of six
- 2 Arizona Cardinals: 29.7 points allowed a game, and an offence that rarely gets past 21
- 3 Denver Broncos: a top-ten defence carrying an offence ranked 31st in yards per play
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos: the Under is 5-1 in Denver games and Bo Nix is under 200 yards in four of six 
The Under has landed in five of Denver’s six games this season. The Broncos have scored 114 points and allowed 125, an average of 39.8 combined points per game.
Denver visit State Farm Stadium on Sunday for Week 7, kick-off 4:05pm ET on CBS. The Broncos are 4-2, second in the AFC West, and have won four of their last five. Arizona are 2-4 and have lost both of their home games.
The Cardinals arrive off an 18-16 win over the Rams, settled by a field goal on the final play. They were 12.5-point underdogs that afternoon, and the result ended a four-game losing streak that had included 45 points conceded to Detroit and 36 each to the Giants and San Francisco.
Denver last played on Thursday 15 October, beating Seattle 17-14 in overtime, so they come into this game on ten days’ rest. Their defence held the Seahawks to 14 points.
The Broncos are 4.5-point favourites, with the moneyline at 1.42 against 2.95 for Arizona. The total sits at 43.5, with the Under priced at 1.95. We’re more interested in that number than in the handicap.
Arizona Cardinals: 29.7 points allowed a game, and an offence that rarely gets past 21 
Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,328 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The Arizona offence averages 21.0 points and 307.3 yards per game, and it has scored 21 or fewer in three of its six games.
Trey McBride remains the focal point of the passing game with 49 catches for 361 yards and three touchdowns. Michael Wilson has added 320 receiving yards. On the ground, Jeremiyah Love has 245 yards at 3.7 per carry and is listed as questionable, with James Conner on injured reserve.
The defence has been the problem. Arizona allow 29.7 points and 350.5 yards per game, and they rank 28th in yards per play allowed and 29th in EPA per play. Budda Baker leads the team with 3.5 sacks and Mack Wilson Sr. has 44 tackles.
Offensive lineman Paris Johnson is on injured reserve, a loss for the protection in front of a quarterback who has already thrown six interceptions. Andrew Wingard and Wydett Williams Jr. are both questionable.
The Cardinals are 3-3 against the spread this season, 0-2 at home and 3-3 as underdogs with two outright wins, over the Chargers in Week 1 and the Rams last Sunday. The Over is 3-3 in their games.
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Denver Broncos: a top-ten defence carrying an offence ranked 31st in yards per play 
Bo Nix has completed 114 of 189 passes for 1,049 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, at 5.6 yards per attempt. He’s been held under 200 passing yards in four of six games and ranks 29th in EPA per dropback.
The offence as a whole averages 19.0 points and 252.2 yards per game. Denver are 31st in yards per play and 29th in success rate, and J.K. Dobbins has 270 yards on 81 carries, about 3.3 a time.
Jaylen Waddle leads the receivers with 22 catches for 228 yards, with Evan Engram on 134. Tyler Badie is questionable.
The defence has carried the team. Denver rank ninth in EPA per play and in success rate, allow 5.0 yards per play and have forced ten takeaways. Zach Allen has 4.5 sacks and Alex Singleton 68 tackles, and the unit has allowed 20.8 points per game.
Pat Surtain II is questionable and Talanoa Hufanga doubtful, with Pat Bryant and Jonah Coleman on injured reserve. Away from home, Denver are 1-2 both straight up and against the spread. Their wins over Seattle (17-14) and the Chargers (23-17) both finished with fewer than 41 combined points.
Probable lineup Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett (QB), Jeremiyah Love (RB, questionable), Michael Wilson (WR), Trey McBride (TE); defence led by Budda Baker and Mack Wilson Sr.
Probable lineup Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (QB), J.K. Dobbins (RB), Jaylen Waddle (WR), Evan Engram (TE); defence led by Zach Allen and Alex Singleton
Free NFL Prediction: Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos
Our prediction: Under 43.5 points at 1.95
Denver’s games have averaged 39.8 points, and their offence has produced 19.0 a game with a quarterback averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Arizona have scored 21 or fewer in half of their games. Neither attack gives us much reason to expect a shootout.
We accept the risk on the other side: Arizona’s defence has conceded 36 or more three times. The difference is that those points came against Detroit, the Giants and San Francisco, and Denver’s offence ranks 31st in yards per play. We expect the Broncos to lean on Dobbins and long drives rather than big plays.
Brissett’s six interceptions against a defence with ten takeaways adds another reason to expect stalled drives. We’re taking the Under at 43.5 for 1.95, and we’d still back it at 42.5 where that’s the line on offer.
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