- 1 Cardiff City vs West Ham United: unbeaten at home against unbeaten away
- 2 Cardiff City: 13 goals in six home games, six in seven away
- 3 West Ham United: Bowen’s 12 goal involvements and 2.50 points a game on the road
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Cardiff City vs West Ham United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cardiff City vs West Ham United: unbeaten at home against unbeaten away 
All three of West Ham’s league defeats have come at the London Stadium. Away from it, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have played six, won three, drawn three and lost none, scoring 15 and conceding seven.
Cardiff City hold the mirror image of that record. Brian Barry-Murphy’s team are unbeaten in six league games at the Cardiff City Stadium, with three wins and three draws, and they’ve failed to win any of their seven away from it.
The two records meet on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time. West Ham are eighth on 22 points, one behind sixth-placed Birmingham, and Cardiff are 17th on 14.
Both lost on Saturday. West Ham went down 3-1 at home to West Brom, a second straight home defeat after the 3-2 loss to Southampton. Cardiff lost 3-0 at Wolves, their fifth away defeat of the season.
West Ham are 1.85 to win, the draw is 4.00 and Cardiff 3.60. We’d take the visitors, and we think the numbers on their travels matter more than Saturday’s result.
League meetings between the sides have gone West Ham’s way eight times to Cardiff’s three, with one draw. At the Cardiff City Stadium it’s closer: three West Ham wins, two for Cardiff and a draw, the last of them a 2-0 Cardiff win on 9 March 2019.
Cardiff City: 13 goals in six home games, six in seven away 
Cardiff’s split by venue runs through every number they have. At home they’ve scored 13 and conceded six. Away they’ve scored six and conceded 14, and that gap is the reason they’re 17th.
The home wins were 5-1 against Watford, 3-1 against Charlton and 1-0 against Birmingham. The three draws came against Stoke, Sheffield United and Wrexham, two of them 1-1.
Jack Moylan has six league goals and three assists, the best figures at the club. Oliver Tanner has two goals and four assists, and Yousef Salech has three goals, including the winner against Birmingham on 24 October.
Over their last ten matches in all competitions Cardiff have created 1.88 expected goals a game and allowed 1.55. At home those figures improve to 2.43 and 1.05, which is the profile of a much higher-placed side.
The defence is depleted. Calum Chambers and Dylan Lawlor are both out, and Gabriel Osho is listed as suspended after a red card. Bielik and Robinson are also listed as unavailable, and Robinson has two league goals.
Cardiff have failed to score in three of their 13 league games, all of them away from home. West Ham have scored in all 13 of theirs.
Their last ten matches in all competitions brought 1.10 points a game overall, 2.50 at home and 0.17 away. They’ve scored first in six league games and conceded first in six, and their one league clean sheet came in the 1-0 win over Birmingham.
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West Ham United: Bowen’s 12 goal involvements and 2.50 points a game on the road 
West Ham have scored 33 league goals in 13 games and haven’t failed to score in any of them. Six came at Lincoln, and six more at home to Wrexham, though the away form doesn’t rest on the Lincoln result alone.
They’ve also won 1-0 at Swansea and 3-2 at Bolton, and drawn at Millwall, Watford and Burnley. Across their last ten matches in all competitions they’ve taken 2.50 points a game away from home, with a clean sheet in half of those away games.
Bowen leads the side with seven goals and five assists. Kante, Mukasa, Piroe and Soucek have three goals each, so four more players have reached that mark behind him.
The loss of Konstantinos Mavropanos goes beyond the back line, since his knee injury has taken five league goals out of the side as well as a starting centre-back. Keiber Lamadrid is also out.
The home defeats have a common thread. West Ham conceded three in each of the last two, to Southampton and West Brom, and they’ve let in 11 of their 18 league goals in the seven games at the London Stadium.
The away figure is seven conceded in six games, and it’s the reason we’re comfortable backing them against a home side with a good record.
Finishing separates the two sides more than volume does. West Ham have needed five shots per league goal, a 22% conversion rate, against eight shots and 13% for Cardiff. Both teams average 11 shots a game.
Probable lineup Cardiff City: Trott; Bagan, Ng, Scanlon, Fish; Colwill, Robertson; Tanner, Moylan, Willock; Ashford
Probable lineup West Ham United: Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Veltman, Kilman, Morato; Bowen, Mukasa, Engels, Austbo; Kante, Solomon
Free Football Prediction: Cardiff City vs West Ham United
Our prediction: West Ham United to win (odds 1.85)
West Ham are unbeaten in six league away games and have scored in all 13 of their matches, while Cardiff go into this without Chambers, Lawlor and Osho. We have the visitors shorter than 1.85.
Cardiff’s unbeaten home record is the case against, and their 2.43 expected goals at home means we expect them to create chances. Two straight home defeats for West Ham also raise a fair question about their back line.
Those defeats came in London, however, and Nuno’s side have been a different proposition elsewhere. A 2-1 away win is the score we expect, with Bowen the likeliest name on the scoresheet.
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