- 1 Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs: the NHL’s best penalty kill meets a top-five power play
- 2 Calgary Flames: three wins in a row with Devin Cooley in net
- 3 Toronto Maple Leafs: four straight wins and six goalscorers in Edmonton
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs: the NHL’s best penalty kill meets a top-five power play 
Toronto killed 97.4% of its penalties going into the weekend, the best rate in the NHL. Calgary’s power play was converting at 26.1%, fifth in the league, and it’s been the one part of the Flames’ game that has worked since opening night.
The two meet at Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday 26 October (8:30pm ET, 6:30pm local), with Toronto on the second stop of a trip through Western Canada and Calgary on its best run of the season. The Flames have won three straight, most recently 4-1 over Detroit on Saturday, after losing six of their first nine.
The Maple Leafs arrive at 7-4-2 on a four-game winning streak, having beaten Edmonton 7-2 at Rogers Place on Saturday, a night on which William Nylander scored his 300th NHL goal and six different players found the net.
Before the weekend Toronto averaged 3.58 goals a game, eighth in the league, and Calgary 2.11, 31st. The Flames were also allowing 4.22 a game, 31st again, and shooting 7.3%, the lowest rate in the NHL. Three wins in a week have only started to chip away at those figures.
Discipline is the number I keep coming back to. Calgary averages 13 penalty minutes a game, 31st in the NHL, and that’s a dangerous habit against a team whose own power play runs at 28.6%. If the Flames spend long stretches in the box, Toronto’s special teams settle this one.
Calgary Flames: three wins in a row with Devin Cooley in net 
Devin Cooley stopped 28 of 29 shots against Detroit on Saturday, while Calgary scored four times on 25 shots against John Gibson. Joel Farabee opened the scoring late in the first period, then Zayne Parekh and Matvei Gridin scored on the power play and Ryan Strome added the other in a three-goal second period.
The streak started with a 3-2 win over Carolina last Sunday and continued with a 2-1 win over Minnesota on Thursday. Calgary has allowed four goals across those three games, after conceding 4.22 a game over the season before Saturday.
Cooley’s numbers explain much of the turnaround: he was at a 3.26 GAA and .898 save percentage before the Detroit game, while Dustin Wolf is 1-4-0 with a 4.86 GAA and .834 save percentage. Starting Cooley again is the obvious call, and it’s the decision that shapes Calgary’s chances most.
Morgan Frost has three goals and six points, Matt Coronato has six points, Farabee led the team with five assists before scoring on Saturday and Aydar Suniev has three goals. Nobody on the roster is near the pace of Toronto’s top two forwards.
Injuries have hit the middle of the lineup. Mikael Backlund is out, and Samuel Honzek and Jonathan Huberdeau are on injured reserve. Without Backlund, Calgary is short of an experienced center for the matchups against Auston Matthews.
The power play is the route to an upset. Parekh and Gridin both scored with the man advantage on Saturday, and the unit’s 26.1% rate ranked fifth before the weekend. Toronto’s kill, at 97.4% over the same period, is the worst possible opponent for it.
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Toronto Maple Leafs: four straight wins and six goalscorers in Edmonton 
Toronto led 3-0 early in the second period in Edmonton on Saturday. Jack Roslovic opened the scoring in the first, Matthews and Troy Stecher scored 54 seconds apart in the second, and the Oilers never got closer than two goals after that.
Nylander’s power-play goal in the third and his empty-netter with 2:04 left took him to 300 in his 763rd game. That makes him the fourth-fastest Swedish player to the mark, behind Tomas Sandstrom, Mats Sundin and Peter Forsberg. Zack MacEwen and Vinni Lettieri also scored, both for the first time in more than a year.
Matthews went into that game leading the team with 18 points, eight goals and 10 assists, and added his ninth goal. Nylander had 16 points before his two goals, and Kirill Marchenko (12) and Easton Cowan (11) were both into double figures for points.
Edmonton came in at 8-2-1 and scored twice, once short-handed at four-on-four and once on the power play, both by Leon Draisaitl. Anthony Stolarz made 30 saves, and Matthews credited the penalty kill, the defense and the goaltending afterwards.
The crease is less settled than that result suggests. Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-3-2 with a 3.10 GAA and .895 save percentage, and he allowed four goals on 25 shots in the 5-4 win over the Rangers. Jim Hiller’s starter for Calgary wasn’t confirmed at the time of writing.
John Tavares is on injured reserve until late November, and Nick Blankenburg, Marshall Rifai and Dakota Joshua are also on IR. Miles Wood’s listed return date is 26 October, the day of this game, so his status will be clearer after the morning skate.
Probable lineup Calgary Flames: Not announced at time of publication (Devin Cooley expected in goal after Saturday’s 28-save win)
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Not announced at time of publication (Anthony Stolarz or Sergei Bobrovsky in goal)
Free NHL Prediction: Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Our prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs to win (moneyline)
Toronto scores 3.58 goals a game and Calgary shoots 7.3%. A three-game run built on Cooley’s goaltending and power-play goals runs straight into the league’s best penalty kill, and I don’t see the Flames winning enough five-on-five minutes to make up the difference.
The Leafs won the last meeting 4-2 on 2 February, and they arrive with six different scorers from Saturday and Matthews and Nylander both producing. Calgary’s 13 penalty minutes a game hand Toronto’s 28.6% power play chances it shouldn’t need.
Cooley is the one thing that could swing this, and another .966 night would give Calgary a real chance to steal it. I’m still taking Toronto to win. Odds weren’t posted at the time of writing, and I’d want 1.45 or better.
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