- 1 Cairns Taipans vs Melbourne United: a rematch of a 202-point shootout
- 2 Cairns Taipans Analysis
- 3 Melbourne United Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Cairns Taipans vs Melbourne United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cairns Taipans vs Melbourne United: a rematch of a 202-point shootout 
The Cairns Taipans host Melbourne United at the Cairns Convention Centre on Saturday 31 October, with tip-off at 9h30 Paris time. It is the opening game of a Saturday double-header in Round 7 of NBL27, and the rematch of a Round 3 game that Cairns won 107-95.
Cairns started the season 1-3 and have gone 4-1 since, which has pushed them into the top four of the ladder. United sit at 4-5, and a win in Queensland would take them back to 5-5.
Both teams arrive on the back of a big scoring night. Cairns beat Brisbane 107-85 on Thursday, while United beat Sydney 105-95, their highest tally of the season and the heaviest defeat the Kings have suffered in NBL27.
The first meeting set the tone for this one. Cairns made 15 threes to United’s 5 in Round 3, and the game finished with 202 points even though United led at the end of the third quarter.
The market makes Melbourne United clear favourites at $1.40, with Cairns at $2.90 and the total set at 194.5 points. That total sits well below the Round 3 score, and Cairns’ three home games this season have produced 180, 188 and 170 points.
Cairns Taipans Analysis 
Cairns have won all three home games this season, and the Convention Centre has become a reliable base for a team that began the year 1-3. That slow start now looks like history.
The Taipans are 4-1 since and sit inside the top four. They conceded 84 and 85 points in the two games before Thursday, so the defence has tightened at the same pace as the attack has grown.
The three-point shot drives everything they do. Over the 4-1 run Cairns have shot 39% from deep on 35.4 attempts per game, and they set a club record with 20 threes against Brisbane.
Jack McVeigh leads the surge, averaging over 20 points across his last four games. Reyne Smith has made 15 threes in the same stretch, and the pair combined for nine of them against the Bullets.
The Taipans are healthy, with Jaylin Galloway back from injury. Keanu Pinder was damaging against United in Round 3, so the decisive point is whether Cairns can keep that three-point volume against a side that has promised to contest more shots.
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Melbourne United Analysis 
Melbourne United are 4-5, and their season has been a run of tight results with one big night. Narrow losses to Illawarra and Perth came before the 105-95 win over Sydney.
That win matters beyond the scoreline. It was United’s highest tally of the season, and it came against the Kings, who had not lost by that margin in NBL27 until then.
Cole Anthony scored 30 points and played 30 minutes or more for the first time this season. He and Josh Oduro combined for 57 points on 20-of-38 shooting.
The club describes Luke Travers as in form, and the trio of Anthony, Oduro and Travers average 58 points per game between them. Chris Goulding also returns from a calf injury and later health issues, which widens the options for Coach Jacob Chance.
Chance has named his focus: contest Cairns’ threes better and keep the momentum for all 40 minutes. In Round 3 United led after three quarters and still lost, so the decisive point is whether they can hold their shape on the perimeter in the fourth.
Probable lineup Cairns Taipans: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Cairns Taipans vs Melbourne United
Our prediction: Under 194.5 points
Cairns have played to totals of 180, 188 and 170 at home this season, and all three sit under the 194.5 line. The Convention Centre has produced fewer points than the Round 3 shootout suggests.
United’s plan is built around running Cairns off the three-point line, and a quieter night from McVeigh and Smith pulls the total down with it. Cairns have also held their last two opponents before Thursday to 84 and 85 points.
Round 3 reached 202 on a 15-three night for the Taipans, and that game is the outlier of the group. We back the Under 194.5 points.
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