- 1 Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators: Thompson’s five goals in two games against a crease without Ullmark
- 2 Buffalo Sabres: a power play back from 1-for-19, and a penalty kill still at 67.4%
- 3 Ottawa Senators: Stutzle’s 21-point October and 21 goals allowed in five games
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators: Thompson’s five goals in two games against a crease without Ullmark 
Tage Thompson scored five goals in two nights in California. He had a hat trick and two assists in Buffalo’s 7-6 win at Anaheim on Thursday, then scored twice more in Saturday’s 3-2 win over the Kings, the second a power-play one-timer with 6:20 left that took him to 223 goals for Buffalo, one more than Rene Robert, for ninth in franchise history.
That’s the form Buffalo brings home to KeyBank Center for Wednesday 4 November, puck drop at 7:30pm ET. The Sabres are 7-4-3 after three straight wins, and they haven’t lost a road game in regulation in their last seven (4-0-3).
Ottawa arrive at the end of a five-game road trip. The Senators were 1-1-1 on it after Saturday’s 5-1 win in San Jose, with a game in Anaheim still to come on Sunday night, and they sit at 9-5-1 overall.
The Senators have scored freely and conceded freely. Across their last five games they’ve allowed 21 goals: six to San Jose at home on 22 October, four to the Rangers, four in Vegas and six in the 6-5 overtime loss to the Kings on Thursday. The one-goal night in San Jose on Saturday was the exception.
Linus Ullmark isn’t available for Ottawa, and the goaltending has become the variable the whole game turns on. We think that, more than the standings, is where this preview starts and ends.
Buffalo Sabres: a power play back from 1-for-19, and a penalty kill still at 67.4% 
Buffalo’s power play went 2-for-3 at Anaheim and 2-for-3 again in Los Angeles. Before that it had scored once on 19 chances over six games. Lindy Ruff tied the turnaround to Rasmus Dahlin’s return from the upper-body injury that cost him three games between 13 and 17 October, and Dahlin had two assists on Saturday.
The line of Thompson, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson did most of the damage in California. Quinn scored on the power play and set up Thompson’s winner on Saturday, Benson had two assists, and Benson already had nine assists on the season before that game.
The penalty kill is the other side of it. Buffalo were killing 67.4% of their penalties heading into Saturday, and they’ve allowed four or more goals in eight of their 14 games, including six in Columbus on opening night and six in Anaheim on Thursday.
In goal, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 27 saves on Saturday. Colten Ellis has the better numbers so far, with a 2.28 goals-against average and a shutout, while Luukkonen’s average sat at 3.56 before the Kings game. Alex Lyon is on the injured list along with Justin Danforth, Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich and Matt Grzelcyk.
Home ice hasn’t been much of an edge. Buffalo are 3-3-0 at KeyBank Center, with wins over Chicago, Minnesota in overtime and Florida, and losses to Dallas, Utah and Philadelphia. This is their first home game since a 3-1 defeat to the Flyers on 21 October.
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Ottawa Senators: Stutzle’s 21-point October and 21 goals allowed in five games 
Tim Stutzle finished October with 21 points, the most any Senators player has ever put up in that month. His goal in San Jose was his ninth of October, and Drake Batherson also has nine; only Bob Kudelski, with ten in October 1993, has scored more for Ottawa in the opening month.
Batherson has points in seven straight games, six goals and six assists. Dylan Cozens scored and assisted on Saturday, and Ridly Greig added a short-handed goal. Ottawa have scored 49 goals in 15 games, more than three a night.
With Ullmark out, the crease is shared. Samuel Ersson, traded from Toronto on 26 June, made 22 saves for his first win in an Ottawa jersey on Saturday after starting the season 0-3-1. Jonas Johansson was projected for the San Jose game before Ersson got the start, which says the job isn’t settled.
Ottawa’s road record is 4-3-1, and the trip has been demanding: Vegas on 27 October, Los Angeles on the 29th, San Jose on the 31st and Anaheim on 1 November. It ends with a flight across the continent and a game against a Buffalo team that will have had three days off.
Hayden Hodgson’s two-game suspension for boarding Brandt Clarke covers the San Jose and Anaheim games, so he’s eligible again in Buffalo. Over the last five games the Senators have gone 2-2-1 and been outscored 21-20.
Probable lineup Buffalo Sabres: Not announced at time of publication (Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Colten Ellis in goal)
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication (Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Jake Sanderson expected; Samuel Ersson or Jonas Johansson in goal)
Free NHL Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators
Our prediction: Over 5.5 goals
Four of Ottawa’s last five games have produced six goals or more, with totals of 8, 11, 11 and 6, and the exception was a 4-1 defeat in Vegas. Buffalo’s penalty kill at 67.4% faces a Senators attack with two nine-goal Octobers, while Ottawa’s goaltending has given up four or more in four of those five games.
Buffalo’s own totals are less consistent. Three of their last five games finished with five goals or fewer, including the 2-0 win in San Jose. We’d still weight the special teams here: a Sabres power play converting four of six over two games against a Senators side without its first-choice goalie.
No price had been posted for this game at the time of writing. We’d take the Over 5.5 at 1.70 or better; if the line opens at 6.5, we’d look at Tage Thompson to score instead.
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