- 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls: a home opener after a fourth-quarter collapse, against a team that hit 4 of 36 threes
- 2 Milwaukee Bucks: Herro and Jaquez scored 46 between them on debut, then the fourth quarter got away
- 3 Chicago Bulls: Claxton out, Hawkins and Swain ill, and a rookie shooting 1 of 8 from deep
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls: a home opener after a fourth-quarter collapse, against a team that hit 4 of 36 threes 
Four made threes from 36 attempts. That was Chicago’s line in Toronto on Wednesday, an 11.1% night that ended in a 135-92 defeat and set the tone for the Bulls’ first week under a rebuilt backcourt. Milwaukee didn’t fare much better on opening night, losing 128-116 in Washington after carrying a three-point lead into the fourth quarter.
Both teams are 0-1, and Friday’s game at Fiserv Forum is the Bucks’ home opener. Tip-off is 8pm ET (7pm local). It’s the first of this season’s Central Division meetings between the two.
We’d treat the opening results differently. Milwaukee lost a game it controlled for three quarters, on the road, against a team playing its own home opener. Chicago was beaten by 43 points in a game where its shooting collapsed from every spot beyond the arc. One of those is a closing problem. The other says more about the roster.
The market sees it as close to a coin flip. Milwaukee is priced around 1.90 to win, Chicago around 2.00, and the spread sits at Bucks -1.5 with a total of 238.5. A computer projection we reviewed has the Bucks winning 127-108, which is a far wider margin than the line implies.
Last season’s series leaned Milwaukee’s way, 3-1. The Bucks won 126-110 in November, 112-103 in December and 131-115 in February before Chicago took the last one 120-97 on 1 March. Both rosters have changed a great deal since, so we’d give that record limited weight, but it’s the only head-to-head evidence available.
Milwaukee Bucks: Herro and Jaquez scored 46 between them on debut, then the fourth quarter got away 
The post-Giannis Bucks started with a respectable offensive night. Tyler Herro had 24 points and nine assists in his first game for the franchise, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 22. Both arrived from Miami, along with Kel’el Ware, in the summer trade that sent Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat.
The fourth quarter in Washington was the issue. Milwaukee led by three heading into the final period and lost by 12, which means the Wizards outscored them by 15 over the last 12 minutes. That’s a defensive and late-game execution problem rather than a talent problem, and it’s the kind that usually tightens up in front of a home crowd.
The probable starting five is Ryan Rollins, Herro, Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner. The roster turnover goes beyond the headline trade: Bobby Portis has left, Taurean Prince went to Detroit, and Caris LeVert and Kasparas Jakucionis came in. Milwaukee reports no injuries ahead of Friday.
A full-strength roster matters here, because Chicago won’t have that. Turner and Ware give the Bucks size inside, and they’ll need it against a Chicago team that won the rebounding count 57-51 in Toronto even while losing by 43.
The betting record from last season isn’t kind to Milwaukee. The Bucks went 36-46 against the spread and only 14-15 straight up when favored. We’d point out that almost none of those games were played with this backcourt, and the first-night offensive numbers suggest Herro and Jaquez can carry the scoring.
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Chicago Bulls: Claxton out, Hawkins and Swain ill, and a rookie shooting 1 of 8 from deep 
Chicago’s injury report is longer than Milwaukee’s. Nic Claxton, acquired from Brooklyn, is out with a hamstring injury. Jordan Hawkins and rookie Dailyn Swain are both day-to-day with illness, and Hawkins is listed as very doubtful.
Caleb Wilson, the fourth pick in the 2026 draft, scored 16 points in his NBA debut but needed a lot of shots to get there and went 1 of 8 from three. He scored 35 in his Summer League debut in July with seven made threes, so the range is there. It didn’t show up in Toronto.
Norman Powell’s first game in a Bulls jersey was quiet: 3 of 9 shooting in 22 minutes. He’s part of a backcourt that has had to replace Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons, the two leading scorers from last season. Guerschon Yabusele and Rob Dillingham weren’t retained either.
The likely starters are Josh Giddey, Powell, Wilson, Matas Buzelis and Jalen Smith. That lineup won the boards in Toronto, and that’s the one area where Chicago can make this uncomfortable for Milwaukee.
The road numbers from last season give little reason for optimism. Chicago won 18 of the 52 games it played as an underdog in 2025-26, a 34.6% rate, though the Bulls did go 29-22 against the spread when getting 1.5 points or more. That suggests a team that keeps games closer than the scoreboard expects without finishing them off.
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner
Probable lineup Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Norman Powell, Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith
Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls
Our prediction: Milwaukee Bucks to win (1.90)
We’re backing Milwaukee at home. The Bucks are healthy, they had two scorers above 20 points on opening night, and they lost in Washington because of one bad quarter. Chicago arrives without Claxton, with Hawkins and Swain in doubt, and after a 43-point loss in which only four of 36 threes went in.
Chicago’s rebounding is the one real argument against us. If the Bulls dominate the glass again and Wilson or Powell find their shot, the 1.5-point spread could matter. We’d still expect Turner and Ware to limit second chances, and the Bucks’ size advantage grows with Claxton missing.
A price of 1.90 for a healthy home team against an injury-hit side coming off a blowout is fair value, and the 3-1 head-to-head from last season points the same way. Milwaukee to win.
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