- 1 Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights: 19 points each, and a penalty kill that keeps leaking
- 2 Boston Bruins: Pastrnak’s 18 points and the best goals-against number in the East
- 3 Vegas Golden Knights: an elite power play undone by a 69.4% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights: 19 points each, and a penalty kill that keeps leaking 
Boston has allowed 2.29 goals per game through 14 games, and Jeremy Swayman and Michael DiPietro have a combined .916 save percentage, the best tandem number in the league so far. That’s the base the Bruins have built a 9-4-1 start on, and it’s why they sit first in the Atlantic Division going into Monday’s game with Vegas.
The puck drops at 7:00pm ET at TD Garden on Monday 2 November. The Golden Knights are 9-5-1 and also on 19 points, second in the Pacific behind Edmonton, so the standings offer no separation at all.
The recent form does. Vegas has won one of its last five, 1-3-1, and Friday’s 5-2 home loss to New Jersey was the kind of night head coach Ryan Craig summed up as “We didn’t help ourselves tonight.” Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev scored in the first period, and Vegas then managed only 21 shots all game.
Boston has its own wobble to explain. The Bruins lost 2-1 at Carolina on October 27 and 4-1 at St. Louis on October 29, scoring once in each, and they host Chicago in a Saturday matinee before this one. At home, though, they’re 5-1-0, with a 6-0 win over Nashville and a 6-4 win over San Jose in their last two games at the Garden.
The schedule leans toward the home team. Vegas flies across the country for the first game of a four-game road trip, and Monday is the first half of a back-to-back, with a game in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Boston gets Sunday off after the Chicago game and plays only once in this stretch.
Boston Bruins: Pastrnak’s 18 points and the best goals-against number in the East 
David Pastrnak leads Boston with 7 goals and 11 assists in 14 games, three of those goals on the power play, and he’s put 46 shots on net. Under Marco Sturm the attack has spread out behind him: Elias Lindholm has 11 points, and James Hagens and Fraser Minten have five goals each.
JJ Peterka, acquired from Utah on June 26 for the 23rd pick in the 2026 draft and a conditional 2028 first, has 4 goals and 9 points. He’s been skating on a line with Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha, who was listed day-to-day with an upper-body issue on October 20 but has played 13 of the 14 games.
Goaltending is where Boston separates itself. Swayman is 7-3-1 with a 2.35 goals-against average, a .912 save percentage and a shutout, and DiPietro has started three times for a 2-1-0 record, a 1.69 average and a .941 save percentage. Their 15.54 goals saved above expected is the main reason a team taking 25.9 shots a game is scoring 3.57 and allowing 2.29.
The penalty kill is the soft spot. It’s working at 77.6%, while the power play converts 20.9%. Against most opponents that’s a manageable gap, but Vegas scores on 27.3% of its chances with the man advantage.
Boston has no injuries listed heading into the weekend. Charlie McAvoy has appeared in only eight of the 14 games, with no reason given, and his availability is worth checking on Monday morning, since he has 6 points in those eight appearances.
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Vegas Golden Knights: an elite power play undone by a 69.4% penalty kill 
Jack Eichel has 20 points, 7 goals and 13 assists, and Stone has 9 goals, three of them on the power play. Mitch Marner adds 15 points in 13 games after his two assists against New Jersey, which gives Vegas one of the most productive top sixes in the West.
The power play is the reason the offense averages 3.53 goals a game. At 27.3% it’s among the best units in the league, and Vegas has also scored three shorthanded goals without conceding one.
The other side of special teams is the problem. The Golden Knights kill only 69.4% of the penalties they take, and that number has dragged them into some lopsided losses: 6-2 at home to Tampa Bay on October 20, 6-2 at St. Louis two nights later. Over the last five games they’ve allowed 16 goals.
Goaltending hasn’t covered for it. Adin Hill started on Friday and is now 5-2-0 with a 2.84 average and an .891 save percentage, and Carter Hart is 4-3-1, 2.76 and .889. Neither is giving Vegas the kind of saves Boston is getting from its pair.
Defenseman Parker Wotherspoon, acquired from Pittsburgh on June 30 for Kaedan Korczak, went on injured reserve on October 21 with an upper-body injury and isn’t due back until around November 7 or 8. Ryan Craig, promoted from AHL Henderson in June to replace John Tortorella, also has to choose between Hill and Hart with a game in Pittsburgh 24 hours later.
Probable lineup Boston Bruins: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Vegas Golden Knights: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Boston Bruins vs Vegas Golden Knights
Our prediction: Boston Bruins to win (moneyline)
The early markets have this close to a coin flip, with Boston around 2.00, and I think that undersells the home team. Boston is rested, 5-1-0 at the Garden and has the better goaltending by a distance, while Vegas arrives after a cross-country flight with a back-to-back to manage.
The Vegas power play is a genuine threat, and Boston’s 77.6% penalty kill gives it room to work. The Bruins’ own power play, at 20.9%, faces a unit that has killed fewer than seven of every ten penalties, so special teams should roughly cancel out.
The last two meetings went 6-5 to Vegas in October 2025 and 4-3 to Boston in January, and the Over has landed in each of the last five head-to-heads. With Swayman or DiPietro in net and Vegas on one win from five, we’d back Boston to win in any fashion.
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