- 1 Brisbane Bullets vs Tasmania JackJumpers: a 2-0 season series against a JackJumpers roster missing five players
- 2 Brisbane Bullets Analysis
- 3 Tasmania JackJumpers Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Brisbane Bullets vs Tasmania JackJumpers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Brisbane Bullets vs Tasmania JackJumpers: a 2-0 season series against a JackJumpers roster missing five players 
Tasmania have beaten Brisbane twice this season, 109-99 in overtime and 106-85, by a combined 31 points. The third meeting is at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre on Sunday 15 November, with tip-off at 7h00 Paris time.
This is the final game of Round 9 in NBL27. Tasmania are second on the ladder at 8-3, level on wins with Sydney, while Brisbane sit sixth at 6-6.
Both teams carry a heavy schedule into Sunday. Tasmania play in Perth on Thursday, and Brisbane travel to Auckland to face the Breakers on Friday before flying home.
The form lines diverge. Tasmania have won four of their last five, while Brisbane are 3-2 over the same stretch and were beaten 120-92 in Melbourne on 7 November.
The key data point is the JackJumpers’ injury list. Five rotation players are sidelined, so the analysis must weigh a strong record against a thinner roster.
In Hobart on 21 October, Brisbane played without Tyrell Harrison and Jacob Holt. Tasmania won that game by 21 points, their widest margin against the Bullets this season.
The first meeting, in Brisbane on 3 October, was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation. Tasmania scored the last 10 points of overtime to win 109-99.
Brisbane Bullets Analysis 
The Bullets’ last five results read: 98-81 win in Illawarra, 107-85 home loss to Cairns, 96-89 win in Adelaide, 109-104 home win over Perth and 120-92 loss in Melbourne. That is a 3-2 stretch with two heavy defeats.
Home court is their main asset. Brisbane are 4-2 at home and 2-4 away, and Sunday’s game is in front of their own crowd.
The defence is the problem. The Bullets score 94.9 points per game and concede 99.3, a -4.4 differential, and Melbourne out-rebounded them 49-23 in the last game.
Max Mackinnon scored 21 points in both games against Tasmania this season and is expected back from concussion in Round 9. In the overtime loss on 3 October, Tyrell Harrison posted 24 points and 12 rebounds and Nate Hinton added 21.
Lat Mayen led the Bullets with 15 points in Melbourne, and Hinton added 13 with 4 steals. Mitch Norton and Taine Murray scored 13 and 12, so the scoring is spread but lacks a dominant option while Mackinnon is out.
The injury list is long. Jacob Holt (ankle) and Sam McDaniel (lower leg) target Round 10, Arnas Velicka (lower limb) is out until Rounds 11 to 12, and Jaylin Williams left the Melbourne game after 10 minutes with a right shoulder injury and is day to day.
Raul Neto made his debut in the 106-85 loss in Hobart with 9 points and 6 assists. He had 6 points and 6 assists in Melbourne, and his playmaking is central with the rotation thinned out.
The 109-104 win over Perth on 4 November is the scoring level Brisbane need at home. Anything near 85 points, their total in Hobart, will not trouble a defence that allows 89.5 per game.
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Tasmania JackJumpers Analysis 
Tasmania’s last five games read: 98-92 over New Zealand, 106-85 over Brisbane, a 71-68 loss to Sydney, a 98-89 win at the Phoenix and a 79-77 win over New Zealand. The only defeat came by three points against the ladder leader.
The JackJumpers win with defence. They concede 89.5 points per game against 94.1 scored, a +4.6 differential, and held Sydney to 71 in the loss.
Josh Bannan scored 22 points in both wins over Brisbane, with 11 rebounds in the first. Taran Armstrong had 29 in the overtime game and 19 in Hobart, so the Bullets have not found an answer for either player.
Dakota Mathias led the 79-77 win over the Breakers with 18 points and four threes, and Will Magnay added 16 points and 3 blocks. Magnay also scored 22 in the first meeting with Brisbane.
The absences are significant. Nick Marshall (ankle), Ben Gold (heel) and David Johnson (calf) are out until around Round 11, Majok Deng (lower leg) until Round 13, and Bryce Hamilton (ACL) has no return date.
Thursday’s game in Perth comes first, so Sunday is the JackJumpers’ second game of the round. The club has signed Nick Stoddart as cover for Hamilton.
The 98-89 win at the Phoenix on 1 November showed Mathias at his best, with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists. Armstrong added 18 that night.
Probable lineup Brisbane Bullets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Tasmania JackJumpers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Brisbane Bullets vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Our prediction: Tasmania JackJumpers win
Tasmania’s core of Armstrong, Bannan, Magnay and Mathias is intact, and it produced both wins over Brisbane. Their defence has held each of their last five opponents under 93 points.
Mackinnon’s return gives Brisbane a scorer who produced 21 points in both meetings. Brisbane still lost both of those games, by 10 and 21 points.
The rebounding numbers are a concern for the hosts. Melbourne out-rebounded them 49-23 last week, and Tasmania bring Bannan and Magnay inside.
Brisbane’s travel is the harder of the two: a Friday game in Auckland followed by a Sunday tip-off at home. Add a -4.4 differential and an injury list of their own, and the Bullets’ home record is not enough to tip the balance.
Our pick is the Tasmania JackJumpers to win. The defensive numbers, the head-to-head record and the matchup history all support the visitors.
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