- 1 Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm: two grand finalists caught by the table
- 2 Brisbane Broncos: a leaking defence and a Suncorp that has turned sour
- 3 Melbourne Storm: Jahrome Hughes’ return gives the halves some shape back
- 4 NRL Prediction Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm: two grand finalists caught by the table 
The numbers tell the story better than any pre-match chat: nine wins for Melbourne, seven for Brisbane. The two teams that contested last season’s big final now head into round 26 sitting 11th and 15th, out of the finals race.
That gap between reputation and reality changes the feel of this one. There is precious little left at stake on the field, which leaves pride and a few tweaks for 2027 to do the heavy lifting.
Brisbane are playing their final home game of the season here. That is the one clear plus the Broncos can sell this week.
They do at least arrive with a fresh boost. Last Friday they stunned the Raiders in Canberra, driven by Ben Hunt taking control again and Hayze Perham standing out at fullback.
Melbourne, meanwhile, were 22-0 down at half-time against the Panthers last Thursday. The Storm shut them out after the break but still went down 22-14. That 13th defeat of the campaign sums up a season in which they have never really found any rhythm.
Kick-off is set for Thursday 27 August at 19:50 AEST at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The match opens round 26.
One stat jumps off the page already: Brisbane have lost their last eight at home. Melbourne, by contrast, boast the best win percentage of any NRL club at the venue.
Brisbane Broncos: a leaking defence and a Suncorp that has turned sour 
Seven wins and 15th place: the Broncos’ record has been the biggest letdown among the competition’s heavy hitters. The defence is where the real damage has been done.
Michael Maguire’s side have shipped 140 points across their last four games, an average of 35 a night. No team wins regularly with numbers like that, no matter how much punch it has going the other way.
Suncorp Stadium is no longer a safe place for them. Eight straight home defeats is a nasty look for a club that built so much of its identity around the noise from its own stands.
Maguire has stuck with continuity and named exactly the same 19-man squad that beat Canberra. Ben Hunt remains at halfback, while Tom Duffy stays on the bench.
The real hope sits out wide and at the back. Hayze Perham keeps the No 1 jersey after his strong display against the Raiders, and Kotoni Staggs remains the sharpest centre option.
Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan will need to win the middle for longer than usual. If Brisbane do not get forward momentum in the first 20 minutes, the Ezra Mam-Ben Hunt pairing will be working off slow ball.
The Canberra win showed this group can still put together clean passages. The question is whether a side conceding 35 points a game can suddenly tighten up in one week of prep.
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Melbourne Storm: Jahrome Hughes’ return gives the halves some shape back 
Nine wins, 13 losses, 11th place: Melbourne are going through one of their toughest seasons in years. Even so, they remain dangerous when their senior men are on the park.
Jahrome Hughes is back in the No 7 after three games out with a hamstring injury. His return gives Melbourne a proper halves combination again alongside Cameron Munster.
That also triggers a chain reaction in the backline. Tyran Wishart, who filled in at halfback last week, moves into the centres to cover the vacancy.
Jack Howarth, meanwhile, is out for the rest of the season after opting for surgery on an old shoulder injury. It is a straight loss in a spot that has already been shuffled around too many times this year.
Marion Seve returns to the bench after two NSW Cup games, coming off the back of a long lay-off with a triceps problem. Even with the injuries, the Storm still have options.
Harry Grant is the most obvious weapon on the Melbourne side. The hooker has scored four tries in his last four games against Brisbane, a record that matters against a defence already looking fragile close to its line.
The stadium history adds to the case. The Storm have a 71% win rate at Suncorp Stadium, the best mark of any NRL club at the ground.
Probable Brisbane Broncos line-up: Perham; Karapani, Staggs, Mariner, Anderson; Mam, B. Hunt; Willison, Walters, Haas, J. Hunt, Riki, Carrigan. Bench : Mozer, Tawha, Gosiewski, Semu.
Probable Melbourne Storm line-up: Faalogo; Tuimalatu-Brown, Wishart, Meaney, Leo; Munster, Hughes; Utoikamanu, Grant, King, Blore, Keeley, Loiero. Bench : Toelau, MacDonald, Hetherington, Clarke.
NRL Prediction Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
Our prediction: Melbourne Storm to win
Brisbane’s 140 points conceded in four matches is the key stat here. A defence that loose is not holding up against an attack built around Munster and Hughes.
The venue only strengthens the case. Melbourne have the best win percentage at Suncorp Stadium in the competition, while Brisbane are stuck on eight straight home losses there.
Brisbane have won four of the last five head-to-heads, but none of those came with a defence this brittle or a home run this bad. The balance has shifted since then.
Melbourne to edge it at Suncorp Stadium. The return of the starting halfback and Brisbane’s defensive mess should settle it.
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