- 1 Brighton vs Kauno Zalgiris: a Premier League side in form against European first-timers
- 2 Brighton: four straight wins and a list of absentees that hasn’t slowed them down
- 3 Kauno Zalgiris: domestic champions who’ve shipped ten goals in four European qualifiers
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Brighton vs Kauno Zalgiris
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Brighton vs Kauno Zalgiris: a Premier League side in form against European first-timers 
Brighton have won four on the bounce. Three of those came in the Premier League, and the last of them, a 2-0 win at Sunderland on Saturday, left Fabian Hurzeler’s side third in the table on 13 points.
That’s the backdrop to Thursday’s Conference League opener at the Amex, kick-off 21:00 Paris time. The visitors are Kauno Zalgiris, champions of Lithuania and, for the first time in their history, a club playing in the league phase of a European competition.
The gap between these two sides isn’t just about budgets. It shows up in almost every number you pull. Brighton finished eighth in the Premier League last season, then brushed Tromso aside 4-0 on aggregate in the playoff round. Kauno’s summer was a lot rougher: a 7-1 aggregate hammering by Dinamo Zagreb in Champions League qualifying, then a 3-1 aggregate defeat to Besiktas in the Europa League playoffs.
So how does a team that has been knocked out twice already end up here? That’s how the European pyramid works. Each defeat dropped Kauno one level, and they’ve landed in a group of fixtures that includes Brighton, Brann, Lugano, Riga, Egnatia and Freiburg.
Here’s the thing worth remembering, though. Domestically, Kauno are a side that knows what it’s about. They sit top of the Lithuanian table with 51 points from 28 games and a goal difference of +36. They don’t lose much at home. Away from home, against a Premier League team, that’s a very different conversation.
Brighton have been here before, too. They reached the last 16 of the Europa League in 2023-24 before Roma knocked them out, and they arrive as one of the favourites to go deep in this competition.
Brighton: four straight wins and a list of absentees that hasn’t slowed them down 
Look at the last three league results and you’ll understand why confidence is high on the south coast. Brighton beat Arsenal 3-0 at home, went to Old Trafford and won 3-2, then handled Sunderland 2-0. Before that, they’d put five past Coventry without reply.
The only real blemish in the last six games was a wild 4-3 defeat at Chelsea. Even then, scoring three at Stamford Bridge isn’t nothing.
What’s impressive is that this run has come with a crowded treatment room. Evan Ferguson, Stefanos Tzimas, Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer and Femi Azeez are all out injured. That’s a lot of attacking quality sitting in the stands. Jack Hinshelwood and Zadok Yohanna also need to be assessed before kick-off.
And yet the goals keep coming. Seventeen in the last six games across all competitions. That tells you plenty about the depth Hurzeler has built.
Rotation is the obvious question. Brighton have another Premier League game three days after this one, so some changes are expected. Lewis Dunk should come back into the side, and Matt O’Riley is in line for a start in midfield. Will a changed eleven lose its edge? On recent evidence, probably not by much.
The Tromso tie is a decent guide to how Brighton handle these nights. They drew 0-0 in Norway, where conditions and travel made it awkward, then won the return leg 4-0 at the Amex. At home, against a side they’re expected to beat, they’ve shown they can turn the screw.
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Kauno Zalgiris: domestic champions who’ve shipped ten goals in four European qualifiers 
Ten goals conceded, two scored. That’s Kauno’s record across their four European games against Dinamo Zagreb and Besiktas this summer. The 5-0 defeat in Zagreb and the 3-0 loss in Istanbul make for uncomfortable reading.
To be fair to Zeljko Sopic’s side, they didn’t fold completely. They lost only 2-1 at home to Dinamo and actually beat Besiktas 1-0 in Kaunas in the second leg. On their own pitch, they compete. On the road, against stronger opposition, the defence simply doesn’t hold.
Their path into the competition started in July, when they edged KI Klaksvik 1-0 on aggregate after a goalless first leg in the Faroe Islands. That’s the kind of tie they win. Brighton away is not.
The good news for Sopic is a clean bill of health. There are no injury or suspension concerns, so he can pick his strongest side. Gabriel Debeljuh, who has one goal in four appearances this season, is expected to lead the line, with Fabien Ourega also likely to start.
Recent domestic form is solid. Kauno beat Minija 3-0 in the Lithuanian Cup in their latest outing, and they won their last league game against FA Siauliai. Top of the league, scoring freely, confident at home. Not a bad side at all.
The problem is the step up. This is the biggest match in the club’s history, and history usually tells us what happens when a Baltic champion travels to a Premier League ground in good form. Kauno will likely sit deep, defend in numbers and hope to nick something on the break. It’s a fair plan. It just hasn’t worked away from home this summer.
Probable lineup Brighton: Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Vuskovic, Dunk, Boscagli; O’Riley, Ayari, Gross; Gomez, Kostoulas, De Cuyper
Probable lineup Kauno Zalgiris: Mikelionis; Moutachy, Lekiatas, Hernandez, Iyobosa; Karashima; Ourega, Fiolic, Kalik, Ribeiro; Debeljuh
Free Conference League Prediction: Brighton vs Kauno Zalgiris
Our prediction: Brighton to win with a -1.5 handicap (win by two goals or more)
Brighton have scored 17 goals in their last six games and won four in a row. Kauno have conceded 10 goals in four games against Dinamo Zagreb and Besiktas this season, and their two away trips in those ties finished 5-0 and 3-0. Put those two trends side by side and a comfortable home win is the logical conclusion.
The straight Brighton win is too short to be worth backing on its own, so the handicap gives a better return for the same reading of the game. Even with rotation, Brighton’s bench is stronger than most of what Kauno have faced in Lithuania, and the Tromso second leg showed how ruthless they can be at the Amex.
The only real risk is a slow, patient night where Kauno defend deep and Brighton get frustrated. We don’t see that lasting 90 minutes. Two clear goals is the minimum we expect from the hosts.
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