- 1 Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks: a 5-0 home team against a tired road team
- 2 Boston Celtics: Paul George’s 36 in Philadelphia and a defense holding teams near 100
- 3 Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg’s 43 caps a homestand sweep, then three games in four nights
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks: a 5-0 home team against a tired road team 
Boston is 5-0 at TD Garden this season, and the average margin in those five wins is 12.2 points. The closest call was a 125-124 overtime escape against Brooklyn on Oct. 27. The other four came against New York (107-103), Chicago twice (134-99 and 125-111) and Milwaukee (109-102).
Dallas comes to town on Sunday, Nov. 15, with tip-off at 6pm ET. The Celtics are 9-2 after a 123-101 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday, with a Wednesday game in Toronto still to be played when this preview was written.
The Mavericks are 7-4 and have won three straight, all at home: 112-100 over Utah, 130-93 over Brooklyn and 125-122 over Indiana. That sweep left them three games over .500 for the first time since March 2025.
The schedule is the problem for Dallas. The Mavs play at Minnesota on Thursday, at Cleveland on Saturday at 7:30pm ET, and then at Boston less than 24 hours later. It’s the third game in four nights, and the second half of a back-to-back on the road.
That matters more than usual because of Kyrie Irving. He’s back after 19 months out with a torn ACL, he sat the second game of Dallas’s first back-to-back this season, and he only completed one for the first time against Indiana, when he logged a season-high 38 minutes. Whether he plays both nights this weekend is the biggest variable on the board, and we think it tilts this game toward Boston before a ball is tipped.
Boston Celtics: Paul George’s 36 in Philadelphia and a defense holding teams near 100 
Paul George scored 36 points in 30 minutes at Philadelphia, on 14-of-22 shooting and 6-of-11 from three. Boston led 62-51 at halftime, and the Celtics outscored Philadelphia 32-19 in the fourth quarter.
Jayson Tatum added 21 points on 8-of-17 with four assists in that game. He was then listed out for the second night of the back-to-back in Toronto, so his status for Sunday needs checking closer to tip-off. Boston has three days between Toronto and Dallas, which works in its favor either way.
The bench carried real weight in Philadelphia. Payton Pritchard scored 18 in 30 minutes and finished plus-26, and Sam Hauser went 4-of-6 from three for 12 points in 18 minutes. Pritchard has already led the team in scoring twice this season, with 28 against Chicago and 30 in the rematch.
The defense is the stronger argument. Before the Philadelphia game, Boston was scoring 115 points per game and allowing 104.3. Charlotte managed 80, Milwaukee 97 and Philadelphia 101 in the last three games, so no opponent has reached 102 against the Celtics since Nov. 4.
Boston’s two losses both came on the road: 121-113 at Detroit on opening night and 109-93 at Houston on Nov. 2. George and Tatum have shared the team scoring lead almost evenly, with Tatum top scorer five times and George four times in the first 11 games.
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Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg’s 43 caps a homestand sweep, then three games in four nights 
Cooper Flagg had 43 points and 10 rebounds against Indiana, a season high and his fourth straight double-double. Irving scored 35 with seven threes. The two of them combined for 26 points in the fourth quarter, including Dallas’s first 13, as the Mavs came back from a 66-56 halftime deficit.
It was closer than the final score suggests. P.J. Washington missed two free throws with four seconds left, Indiana got the rebound, and the Pacers’ last possession only ended when Caleb Martin tipped away a pass near the sideline.
The home form has been solid at 5-2. The road form is where we have doubts: Dallas is 2-2 away from American Airlines Center, with wins at Indiana (121-105) and Miami (113-109) and losses at Houston (128-110) and San Antonio (112-111). Neither of those wins came against a team currently above .500.
The starting five against Indiana was Irving, Martin, Flagg, Washington and Daniel Gafford, with Naji Marshall, Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher and Max Christie off the bench. If Irving rests in Boston, the shot creation falls heavily on Flagg, who has already been the team’s top scorer in five of its 11 games.
Dallas also arrives off a game in Cleveland the night before. The Cavaliers were 5-6 on Nov. 10, but they’re at home for that one. Even a win in Cleveland would leave the Mavs flying into Boston late on Saturday night for a 6pm ET start.
Probable lineup Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Paul George, Jordan Walsh, Jayson Tatum (status to confirm), Neemias Queta
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving (back-to-back status to confirm), Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
Our prediction: Boston Celtics to win by 6 or more points (handicap -5.5)
We’re backing Boston on the handicap rather than the moneyline, because the straight win price for a 5-0 home team against a side on a back-to-back is likely to sit too short. No line was posted for this game at the time of writing, so check that the spread hasn’t moved past -6.5 before taking it.
Dallas deserves credit for the three-game run, and Flagg’s 43 against Indiana shows the ceiling. But all three wins came at home, the Mavs are 2-2 on the road, and they’ll play this one on Sunday evening after a Saturday night game in Cleveland. Boston will have had three days off.
The deciding factor for us is the Celtics’ defense at home against a tired offense. Opponents have scored 80, 97 and 101 in Boston’s last three games, and the Garden margin so far is 12.2 points. If Irving sits or plays limited minutes, we’d expect that margin to hold.
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