- 1 Birmingham City vs Southampton: a misleading table for the Saints
- 2 Birmingham City unbeaten, but still short of top gear
- 3 Southampton sparked by a 5-1 rout and a red-hot Cyle Larin
- 4 Championship prediction Birmingham City vs Southampton
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Birmingham City vs Southampton: a misleading table for the Saints 
Birmingham City host Southampton on Tuesday, September 1 at 8:00pm UK time, which is 9:00pm in France. St Andrew’s and its 29,409 seats stage the fourth round of Championship fixtures.
The table shows eighth against 18th, but that does not tell the full story. Southampton have been hit with a four-point deduction for several breaches of EFL rules, linked to unauthorised filming of other clubs’ training sessions.
Without that penalty, the Saints would sit in a position much closer to their level of performance. Nine goals in three games is the second-best haul in the division.
Birmingham, meanwhile, come into this with five points and an unbeaten start, built on two draws and a win. Chris Davies has a stronger squad at his disposal and promotion is clearly the target.
The recent record leans firmly towards the visitors: Birmingham have not beaten Southampton in the last six meetings in all competitions. That run stretches back several seasons.
Both sides arrive off very different weekends. The Blues banked their first win against a direct rival, while the Saints produced the biggest result in the division since the season restarted.
A fixture like this, between a solid side and a team firing in attack, often opens up. The fourth round should tell us plenty about where these two are really headed.
Birmingham City unbeaten, but still short of top gear 
Birmingham began their season with two draws, against Sheffield United and Bristol City. Their first win came last Friday against Wrexham, another side openly aiming for promotion.
Phil Neumann scored twice in that victory, which Chris Davies described as a big win against a very good side. The German defender is quickly becoming a key figure in the group.
The result carried even more weight given it came only three days after a heavy EFL Cup defeat. Brentford hit the Blues for six in a 6-1 hammering.
Davies also praised his team’s response after such a painful night. This squad’s mentality is not the issue.
The club finished 10th last season, nine points outside the play-offs. Summer recruitment was aimed at closing that gap, with Jhon Solis, Dael Fry, James Beadle, Luis Vazquez, Kristoffer Lund and Max Bird all arriving.
Kai Wagner, Kyogo Furuhashi and Jonathan Panzo moved on in the same window. In goal, Beadle already has one clean sheet from three league matches.
There could be a tweak up front: Demarai Gray injured his shoulder against Wrexham, so Patrick Roberts is expected to come in. Solis and Tomoki Iwata should anchor midfield, with Neumann again alongside captain Christoph Klarer at centre-back.
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Southampton sparked by a 5-1 rout and a red-hot Cyle Larin 
Southampton started with a 2-1 loss to Watford, then flipped the script in style. A 3-1 win over Stoke City was followed by a 5-1 demolition of Millwall on Saturday.
That win over Millwall was both the biggest home victory and the highest-scoring match in the division since the restart. Millwall had gone into the game top of the table and finished third last season.
Cyle Larin scored twice that day and now has four goals, which puts him joint-top of the Championship alongside Will Lankshear. The Canadian striker is the focal point of Tonda Eckert’s side.
Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza and Tom Fellows added the other goals against the Lions. Nine goals in three games is the second-highest total in the league, level with Wolverhampton.
Eckert was pleased with the display, but insisted his side can still improve. He also warned that the trip to St Andrew’s will demand plenty from his team.
The only real problem for the Saints is on the table. The four-point deduction leaves them artificially low despite two wins from three.
There is likely to be a change in midfield: Flynn Downes picked up an injury against Millwall, and James Ward-Prowse should make his first start since returning to the club. Larin will lead the line, with Scienza and Kuryu Matsuki either side.
Probable Birmingham City XI: Beadle ; Osayi-Samuel, Neumann, Klarer, Cochrane ; Iwata, Solis ; Vicente, Roberts, Stansfield ; Priske
Probable Southampton XI: Peretz ; Bree, Wood, Schlotterbeck, Manning ; Ward-Prowse, Bragg ; Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza ; Larin
Championship prediction Birmingham City vs Southampton
Our prediction: Southampton to win
Nine goals in three games, including five against league leaders Millwall: Southampton have the sharpest attack in the early part of the season, alongside Wolverhampton. Birmingham have scored just four in the same spell.
Cyle Larin, with four goals and joint-top scorer in the division, arrives in form and should trouble the Neumann-Klarer partnership. The return of James Ward-Prowse to the starting XI adds more quality in possession.
The balance between the two clubs backs that view as well: Birmingham have not beaten Southampton in their last six meetings. The Blues also come in off a 6-1 drubbing by Brentford a week ago.
The Saints’ place in the standings is down to an administrative punishment, not what they are showing on the pitch. Back Southampton to take the points at St Andrew’s.
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