- 1 Benfica vs Aarhus: a walk in the park for the Lisbon side?
- 2 Benfica: two home routs and just one real warning sign
- 3 Aarhus: 10 goals conceded in four European games
- 4 Europa League prediction Benfica vs Aarhus
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Benfica vs Aarhus: a walk in the park for the Lisbon side? 
Benfica eased past Hearts 7-2 on aggregate in the third qualifying round. Aarhus, by contrast, head to Lisbon after shipping four unanswered goals in Baku against Sabah.
The two clubs meet on Thursday 20 August at 21:00 at the Estadio da Luz in the first leg of their Europa League play-off. The return is set for 27 August in Denmark.
The winner over two legs reaches the Europa League league phase. The loser does not drop out of Europe altogether, though: they go straight into the Conference League league phase.
Benfica: two home routs and just one real warning sign 
Benfica have played four European qualifying matches since the end of July. The record reads two wins, one draw and one defeat, with 13 goals scored and four conceded.
That split is mainly down to what happens in Lisbon. The 5-0 demolition of St. Gallen and the 6-1 hammering of Hearts were both delivered at the Estadio da Luz.
The only blemish came away from home, in a 2-1 defeat at St Gallen in the first leg of the second round. They put that right the following week.
Across the two legs against Hearts, Benfica wrapped things up inside the first half of the first meeting. The 1-1 draw in Scotland after that was game management, not a genuine scare.
The Portuguese side come into this tie with a clear rhythm advantage. They have been playing high-intensity football since July, while their opponents have just been stopped dead in their tracks.
11 goals in two European home games this summer is a blunt stat, but it tells the story. No one has handled the pressure at the Luz this season.
One thing to keep an eye on, though: Benfica have already been caught out away from home this summer, which shows they can be exposed when they lose control of the tempo. At home, that has not happened once.
The Portuguese side come into this play-off with a level of match sharpness few teams can match at this stage. Four European games in three weeks have helped settle the patterns.
The two-legged battle with Hearts also gave minutes to the whole squad. That matters with the fixture list about to get busier at the end of August.
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Aarhus: 10 goals conceded in four European games 
Aarhus have played four European qualifying matches this summer, all on the Champions League route. The Danish club have come through with a very mixed record.
Against Lech Poznan, they lost 4-1 at home before going to Poland and winning 4-1. The tie was then settled on penalties, 4-3.
That says plenty about their ability to bounce back, but it also highlights a fragile back line. A side that ships four at home and scores four away is not built on solid foundations.
The third qualifying round confirmed the issue. After winning 2-1 at home against Sabah, Aarhus collapsed 4-0 in the return in Azerbaijan.
Across their four continental outings, they have conceded 10 goals. That is the big number to swallow before a trip to Lisbon.
Their status as Danish champions is still a useful marker, though. Aarhus finished top of their league by seven points, so this is not a side that is soft over the long haul.
But the schedule works against them here. They arrive four days after being knocked out of the Champions League path, with no real time to sort out the defensive mess.
Aarhus still carry a real threat going forward. The four goals they scored in Poznan to wipe out a three-goal deficit remain the standout result of their summer.
The problem is that it always seems to come with chaos at the other end. The Danes have not kept a clean sheet once in their European campaign.
Benfica likely lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Aarhus likely lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Europa League prediction Benfica vs Aarhus
Our prediction: Benfica win by at least two goals
Benfica have won both of their European home games this summer, 5-0 and 6-1. Neither opponent was able to live with the Lisbon press for 90 minutes.
Aarhus, meanwhile, come in off a 4-0 defeat and have shipped 10 goals across their four continental games. The gap in quality is matched by an immediate gap in defensive form.
The Danish side have had no time to recover from their Champions League exit. That lack of preparation usually costs you badly on a trip of this size.
Benfica should win and take a clear advantage back to Denmark. The two-goal handicap is the bet to back in this first leg.
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