76.7%
Opta ran the 2026-27 Bundesliga season 10,000 times. Bayern Munich came out champions in more than three quarters of them.
Vincent Kompany has won the league in both of his seasons in charge, and the model does not expect a third to be any harder. Bayern have finished top in 13 of the past 14 campaigns. The one break came when Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen took it in 2023-24.
The projections were run on 25 August, days before the opening round.
Try it for $0.99.
What last season looked like
They were champions on 19 April with four matches still to play, the fifth-fastest title win in Bundesliga history. They scored 122 goals, a single-season record for the league. No other club in Europe reached 100. Barcelona were closest, on 95.
Bayern dropped points six times all year, five draws and one defeat, a 2-1 loss at Augsburg in January. They finished 16 points clear of Borussia Dortmund, led the expected goals table on 100.9 and conceded 36, one more than Dortmund’s league-best 34.
Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Michael Olise are all still there. Ismael Saibari has arrived. The supercomputer puts Bayern’s Champions League qualification at 98.4% and did not relegate them in a single one of the 10,000 runs.
Who is meant to stop them
Dortmund get an 8.7% title chance, with second their most likely finish at 23.0%. Leverkusen, rebuilding under Carles Martinez after a season that burned through two managers, sit at 5.0%. Only RB Leipzig, Stuttgart, Hoffenheim and Freiburg clear one percent.
The Champions League race looks tighter than the title itself. Dortmund qualify in 62.2% of simulations and Leverkusen in 52.6%, then Stuttgart and Leipzig are separated by barely two points of probability, 39.4% against 37.2%.
The other end of the table
Schalke are back in the top flight for the first time since 2021 and carry the heaviest relegation risk at 24.5%. Paderborn, who ended Wolfsburg’s 29-year Bundesliga run with Laurin Curda’s goal in the 10th minute of extra time in the play-off, follow at 23.2%. Elversberg, in the Bundesliga for the first time in the club’s history, come out best of the three promoted sides at 22.9%.
Bayern open against Stuttgart on Friday.
Discover the rest of our football news on MathODDS!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply