- 1 Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje: nine straight home wins and 37 Europa League goals
- 2 Bayer Leverkusen: four points from three Bundesliga games and the attack already ticking
- 3 NK Celje: Slovenian champions and 13 straight away games with a goal
- 4 Europa League prediction Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that can change
- 8 Your job
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje: nine straight home wins and 37 Europa League goals 
Bayer Leverkusen have won their last nine home games in the Europa League, scoring 37 times in that run. No club in action on Wednesday can match that record on home turf in this competition.
The BayArena is hosting the competition again for the first time since the 2023-2024 final. A sixth-place finish in the Bundesliga last season sent the club back into Europe’s second-tier tournament.
Kick-off is set for Wednesday 16 September at 21:00. Celje travel across Europe as Slovenian champions, their second title in three years.
The Slovenians also arrived the hard way. After losing 3-2 on aggregate to Slovan Bratislava in the second qualifying round of the Champions League, they drop into the league phase of the Europa League.
The gap in resources between the two clubs is obvious, but Celje do bring a few weapons. They have scored in each of their last 13 away games in all competitions, a run that says plenty about their ability to carry a threat on the road.
This opening match starts a 36-team league phase in which the top eight avoid the play-offs. Leverkusen have every reason to hit the ground running in front of their own fans.
The single 36-team table sends the top eight straight through to the last 16. Clubs finishing ninth to 24th go into a play-off in February.
The schedule then sends Leverkusen to Lech Poznan for matchday two. Celje host Omonia Nicosia, which makes this trip to Germany the toughest test of their opening stretch.
Bayer Leverkusen: four points from three Bundesliga games and the attack already ticking 
Bayer Leverkusen have taken four points from their first three Bundesliga matches. One win, one draw and one defeat leaves them seventh for now.
The bright spot has been their attack, with eight goals scored in three games. But the five they have shipped in the same period point to a defence that is still a bit loose.
The results tell the story. A 3-2 defeat at Elversberg on 29 August, a 4-0 rout of Union Berlin on 5 September, then a 2-2 draw at Augsburg on 12 September.
The change in setting could suit Carles Martinez’s side. Those nine straight home wins in the Europa League, with 37 goals to go with them, show that the BayArena is still a place where Leverkusen can crank up the tempo.
The squad is close to full strength, with Nathan Tella among those unavailable. Malik Tillman is expected to start in a 4-2-3-1, with Mark Flekken in goal.
The contrast between domestic form and European pedigree is clear enough. Sixth in the Bundesliga last season, but a Europa League final only two years earlier.
The defeat at Elversberg at the end of August is still the only real blot on Leverkusen’s record this month. The two games since then have produced six goals, which suggests the issue is more about defensive structure than chance creation.
Facing a side that does not press high should suit the German outfit. The spaces Celje leave between the lines are exactly where Leverkusen’s attackers like to work.
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NK Celje: Slovenian champions and 13 straight away games with a goal 
Celje arrive in Germany as champions of Slovenia. It is the club’s second domestic title in the last three seasons.
That title earned them a place in the second qualifying round of the Champions League. Slovan Bratislava knocked them out over two legs, 3-2 on aggregate, and sent the Slovenians into the Europa League.
The most telling stat for the visitors is the one on the road. Celje have scored in each of their last 13 away games in all competitions, without exception.
That attacking consistency does not erase the gap in depth and quality between the two squads. A Slovenian club facing a regular European contender starts with a clear disadvantage in pace, power and bench strength.
The Slovenians are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Leban in goal. That mirrors Leverkusen’s shape and points to a game built on transitions, an area where the Germans hold a clear edge.
Their Champions League qualifying run at least gave them proper high-level minutes. Two legs against Slovan Bratislava is better preparation than a diet of domestic football alone.
The eight-game league phase also leaves some room for clubs from smaller leagues. A defeat in Germany does not kill the campaign if the points come later against Omonia Nicosia or Ararat-Armenia.
So the real question on Wednesday is the margin, not the result. Celje need to survive the first 15 minutes or this could unravel quickly.
Probable Bayer Leverkusen XI: 4-2-3-1 with Flekken in goal, full line-up not confirmed at the time of publication.
Probable NK Celje XI: 4-2-3-1 with Leban in goal, full line-up not confirmed at the time of publication.
Europa League prediction Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win with a -1.5 handicap, meaning at least a two-goal margin
Thirty-seven goals across their last nine home Europa League games: Leverkusen do not just win at the BayArena, they usually win big. A scoring rate north of four per match makes the straight home win look a little thin and pushes the case toward the handicap.
Celje are coming off Champions League qualifying elimination and now face a side that has already put four past Union Berlin this season. Leverkusen have conceded five in three Bundesliga matches, but that has not stopped them scoring at least twice in each of their last two outings.
Leverkusen should win by two goals or more. The gulf between the Bundesliga and the Slovenian top flight, added to the club’s record at home, leaves little room for a different read.
The only real counterpoint is Celje’s away scoring streak, which could keep the final margin down. But they have not faced a Bundesliga defence in a stadium this size.
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