- 1 Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Lamar Jackson’s ankle on a four-day turnaround
- 2 Baltimore Ravens: 141.7 rushing yards a game, 23.9 points allowed
- 3 Jacksonville Jaguars: 17.3 points allowed and the league’s top run defense
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Lamar Jackson’s ankle on a four-day turnaround 
Lamar Jackson hasn’t finished a game since 4 October, when he sprained his left ankle against Tennessee. Baltimore went 1-2 without him, and he was expected back on Sunday in Buffalo after a week of full practices with the ankle taped.
Whatever happens in Buffalo, the Ravens then get four days before Thursday Night Football. Jacksonville visits M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 8:15pm ET on Prime Video, in Week 9.
Baltimore is 4-3 and last in the AFC North after two straight defeats: 13-10 at Cleveland, then 35-13 at home to Cincinnati. Jesse Minter, in his first season in charge after replacing John Harbaugh, has watched his team score 23 points across those two games.
Jacksonville is 4-2, top of the AFC South, and came out of its Week 7 bye with a home game against Indianapolis on Sunday. The Jaguars’ point differential of plus 50 is the best of the two teams by a distance, Baltimore’s sits at plus 2.
The last two meetings went in opposite directions. Jacksonville won 28-27 at home in November 2022, and Baltimore won 23-7 in Jacksonville in December 2023.
The early market has Baltimore as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. I think that number is giving the Ravens too much credit for one quarterback returning.
Baltimore Ravens: 141.7 rushing yards a game, 23.9 points allowed 
Derrick Henry has 579 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, and the Ravens average 141.7 yards on the ground. That part of the offense has held up with or without Jackson.
The passing game hasn’t. Jackson completed 68 of 96 passes for 967 yards, six touchdowns and one interception before the injury. Tyler Huntley threw for 727 yards and four touchdowns in relief, and Baltimore’s points dried up: 10 at Cleveland, 13 against Cincinnati.
Zay Flowers is the one receiver producing every week, with 40 catches for 608 yards and three touchdowns. He’s the target Jacksonville will shade coverage toward.
The defense is the bigger worry. Baltimore allows 23.9 points a game, and its sack leader Tavius Robinson, with 3.5, is on injured reserve with a pectoral injury. The front added Trey Hendrickson in the offseason but lost Odafe Oweh in a trade, and Jaire Alexander was also moved on.
Guard Olaivavega Ioane (knee) and safety Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) were both listed out with an estimated return date of 5 November. Cornerback T.J. Tampa was questionable with a knee problem.
Third down has been a strength, at 41.7%, but the red zone rate of 62.5% trails Jacksonville’s. Against Cincinnati, Baltimore’s defense gave up four Joe Burrow touchdown passes in a 22-point loss.
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Jacksonville Jaguars: 17.3 points allowed and the league’s top run defense 
Jacksonville gives up 17.3 points a game, and before Week 8 it was allowing 72.2 rushing yards per game, the lowest figure in the NFL. That matters against a team that leans on Henry as much as Baltimore does.
The pass defense is the other story. The Jaguars ranked 30th against the pass at 273.8 yards per game in the same numbers, so a healthy Jackson is exactly the opponent they’d want to avoid.
Trevor Lawrence has 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions on 120 of 184 passing. Parker Washington has become his main target with 26 catches for 416 yards and four scores, while Brian Thomas Jr. was benched in the second half against Houston and has only nine catches for 105 yards.
The offensive line took a hit when left tackle Anton Harrison tore his ACL, an injury confirmed on 23 October that ends his season. Jacksonville had already added guard Daniel Faalele from the Giants and defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro from Atlanta, along with backup quarterback Quinn Ewers from Miami.
The Jaguars’ two losses came by seven at Denver and by three to Houston in London, 34-31 on a field goal with no time left. Their wins include 34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (hamstring) was questionable before Sunday, and safety Antonio Johnson (ankle) was out. Bhayshul Tuten leads the backfield with 388 rushing yards.
Probable lineup Baltimore Ravens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Jacksonville Jaguars: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Our prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5
I’d take the points with Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow 6.6 fewer points a game than Baltimore, their run defense takes away the part of the Ravens’ offense that has worked all season, and their plus-50 point differential is 48 points better than Baltimore’s.
The case against is Jackson himself. If the ankle holds up on a short week, Jacksonville’s 30th-ranked pass defense will be tested hard, and Flowers can win that matchup. A high ankle sprain three games old, a Sunday game in Buffalo and a Thursday kick-off is a lot to ask of it, though.
Baltimore has lost its last two games by 3 and 22 points and scored 23 across them. Jacksonville’s six games have been decided by seven points or fewer four times, and +4.5 covers a field-goal loss. The Jaguars moneyline sat at 2.70 in early markets for anyone wanting more.
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