- 1 Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning: the NHL’s 4.1-goal offense against a team that’s won 7 of 8
- 2 Colorado Avalanche: first in second-period scoring, an .890 save percentage behind it
- 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: 2.56 goals allowed a game, and Kucherov’s nine assists
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning: the NHL’s 4.1-goal offense against a team that’s won 7 of 8 
Tampa Bay have won seven of their last eight games and arrive in Denver at 7-2. The latest was a 6-2 win over Vegas, built on six goals from 21 shots and a power-play goal on three chances.
Colorado’s start has been louder on the scoresheet and worse in the standings. The Avalanche have 41 goals in ten games, 4.1 per night, but they’re 5-4-1 after losing to Philadelphia and then 4-3 to New Jersey.
The gap between those two records is mostly at the other end of the ice. Colorado have allowed 30 goals and carry a team save percentage of .890, while Tampa Bay have allowed 23 in nine games, 2.56 per game, sixth in the league.
Puck drop at Ball Arena is 9:00pm ET. The Avalanche are home favorites at 1.80 on the moneyline, with the Lightning at 2.05, and the total is set at 6.5 goals.
We think the price is on the wrong side. Tampa Bay have won seven of the last ten meetings between these teams, and they’ve won six of their last eight as underdogs.
Colorado’s case rests on home form after a road loss. The Avalanche have won six of their last seven at Ball Arena in that spot, and eight of those nine games went over the total.
Colorado Avalanche: first in second-period scoring, an .890 save percentage behind it 
The Avalanche lead the league with 2.00 goals per game in the second period and have scored six or more three times, tied for the most in the NHL. They’ve also put 306 shots on net, fifth in the league, and convert 13.4% of them.
Artturi Lehkonen has eight goals and is shooting 50.0%, the best rate among qualified players. That number won’t hold, and Colorado’s 4.1 goals per game include a share of finishing that’s likely to come down over the next month.
Nathan MacKinnon has ten assists and has recorded at least one in each of his last eight home games against Tampa Bay. Nazem Kadri leads the team with 27 shots, and Brock Nelson has scored in six of his last seven home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
The goaltending is the weak spot. Mackenzie Blackwood has allowed 20 goals on 180 shots, a save percentage of .889, and Scott Wedgewood has conceded 8 on 91. The penalty kill sits at 82.6%, which has kept the damage down.
Nicolas Roy, Zachary L’Heureux and Georgii Merkulov are out, three forwards missing from a lineup that has already lost three of its last four.
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Tampa Bay Lightning: 2.56 goals allowed a game, and Kucherov’s nine assists 
Brandon Hagel leads the Lightning with seven goals, and Nikita Kucherov has nine assists, with four multi-assist games already, tied for third in the league. Tampa Bay average 3.44 goals per game.
The power play is the part that hasn’t clicked. It’s 4-for-31, 12.9%, and the penalty kill has allowed five goals on 24 chances, which ranks 29th. Colorado’s power play at 18.8% is the one area where the home side has a clear edge.
At even strength, Tampa Bay have scored 27 and allowed 18. Andrei Vasilevskiy has given up 17 goals on 166 shots this season, and Dennis Hildeby has allowed 4 on 50 in his appearances.
Victor Hedman has an assist in each of his last five road games against Colorado. Yanni Gourde is out, and Anthony Cirelli is day-to-day, so the Lightning could be two centers short against MacKinnon and Kadri.
Against Central Division teams, 13 of Tampa Bay’s last 15 games have gone under the total. They have also failed to cover the puck line in their last five games after a road win, so a one-goal game is the result we’d expect if they win.
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Our prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning to win (2.05)
We’re taking the Lightning on the moneyline. They’ve allowed seven fewer goals than Colorado in one fewer game, they’ve won seven of their last eight, and they hold a 7-3 edge over the last ten meetings.
Colorado can outscore anyone for a period, and their second-period average of 2.00 goals is the biggest threat to this pick. A team save percentage of .890 behind that offense is why we don’t trust the Avalanche at 1.80.
Cirelli’s status is the one thing we’d check before puck drop. Even without him, a road underdog at better than evens with the better defensive record and the better goaltender is the side we’d back.
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