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Auxerre vs Paris FC free Ligue 1 prediction

Auxerre vs Paris FC – Free Ligue 1 Prediction

Auxerre vs Paris FC: two draws in the top flight, and a host who’ve let in 23 Ligue 1

Neither of last season’s Ligue 1 meetings produced a winner. Paris FC and Auxerre drew 1-1 at the Stade Jean-Bouin in November 2025 and 0-0 at the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps in February, and the wider record is almost as tight, with 15 meetings split four Auxerre wins, six draws and five for Paris FC.

The clubs come into Saturday 7 November, kick-off 16:15 UK time, in very different places. Paris FC are fourth on 17 points after nine games, with 16 goals scored and ten conceded. Auxerre are 14th on 10, and their defensive record of 23 conceded in nine is the worst of the two by a distance.

Liam Rosenior’s side beat Monaco 3-1 at the Jean-Bouin last Sunday, with Sinayoko scoring twice, while Will Still’s players were beaten 5-1 at Strasbourg, a side that had lost four in a row before they arrived.

That defeat ended a good spell for Auxerre. They’d taken ten points from five games after losing their first three, and a win at Strasbourg would have moved them six clear of the relegation play-off place.

The bookmakers make Paris FC clear favourites at 1.75, with the draw at 3.75 and Auxerre at 4.00. The visitors’ away record is the reason to hesitate, and I’ll come to that, but I think the price is about right.

Auxerre: five goals conceded at home, 18 on the road Auxerre

Auxerre’s season divides cleanly by venue, and it’s the part of their record that gives Paris FC something to think about. At the Abbé-Deschamps they’ve played four, won two, drawn one and lost one, with five scored and five conceded.

Those two wins were 1-0 over Nice and 2-1 over Brest, both in September, and the one defeat, 3-1 to Angers, came in the opening weeks. Their last home game was the 1-1 with Le Mans on 25 October, when Cameron Archer scored his fifth league goal of the season.

Away from home they’ve conceded 18 in five, including 5-2 at Lens, 4-1 at Rennes and last Sunday’s 5-1. Their one away win came at Le Havre, 3-1 on 18 October.

Still’s attack has been reasonable given all that. Auxerre have scored in every league game, Archer led the club with five going to Strasbourg and Danny Namaso had three, two of them in the win at Le Havre.

Dioubate is suspended after a red card, and Senaya (hamstring), Fofana (groin), Okoh (knee), Siwe (muscle), Lascary and Dioussé are all listed as out, which removes much of Still’s defensive cover at once.

Okoh’s knee injury could keep him out until the New Year, and Senaya and Siwe weren’t expected back until after the November international break. Still will have to pick a back line from what’s left, against a side sitting fourth.

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Paris FC: three straight home wins, two straight away defeats Paris FC

Paris FC’s league position has been built largely at the Jean-Bouin. They drew 0-0 with Lyon there earlier in the season, and their last three home league games have been wins: 2-1 over Strasbourg, 4-3 over Rennes and 3-1 over Monaco, nine goals in all.

A 1-0 defeat at Lorient on 10 October and a 2-1 defeat at Lens on 24 October are their two most recent league trips, and their last five away games in all competitions have brought one win, one draw and three defeats.

At Lens they led through Luca Koleosho until Thorgen Hazard’s late winner, and that came with Kevin Trapp already missing and three attacking players, Koleosho, Ilan Kebbal and Pablo Pagis, taken off during the match.

Ikoné (thigh), Koleosho (muscle), Sangui (muscle) and Camara (hamstring) are out, while Traoré and Chergui are doubts, and Trapp is listed as doubtful with an illness.

The Monaco result suggests the squad can absorb it, and three goals against a side in the top four came despite that list of doubts. Kebbal and Moses Simon are the players who’ve created most of what Paris FC do in the final third.

If Trapp misses out, Obed Nkambadio is the likely replacement, having made his first start of the season at Lens. He’d sit behind a defence that has conceded ten in nine league games, 13 fewer than Auxerre.

Probable lineup Auxerre: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Paris FC: Not announced at time of publication

Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Auxerre vs Paris FC

Our prediction: Paris FC to win @ 1.75

Paris FC are fourth and have scored ten in their last five league games, and Sinayoko has just scored twice against a top-four side. Auxerre have conceded 23 in nine, lost 5-1 on Sunday and will be without Dioubate, Senaya, Fofana, Okoh and Siwe.

Auxerre are unbeaten in three home league games since the Angers defeat, and Paris FC have lost their last two away. The last two meetings were also level.

A back line this depleted, facing a side with Kebbal, Simon and Sinayoko, is the difference for me. I’d back Paris FC to win at 1.75, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Auxerre score as well.

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Author

  • Louis Boulben

    Ex-NCAA D1 Athlete with a background in B2B/D2C technology, enterprise business development, finance, and management. Currently leading growth and strategy at MathODDS, expanding into broader European and US markets.


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