- 1 Augsburg vs Union Berlin: a home side that always scores twice against visitors yet to score away
- 2 Augsburg: 16 goals in six league games and one home clean sheet in seven
- 3 Union Berlin: no away goals and 17 conceded in six games
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: a home side that always scores twice against visitors yet to score away 
Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Augsburg, with two wins and a draw. It’s the one number in this fixture that points their way, and I don’t think it survives Saturday.
Union have played two Bundesliga away games this season and lost both, without scoring and with seven goals conceded. They also lost three of their final four away league games last season.
Augsburg have scored at least twice in all seven of their games this season across all competitions. They’re unbeaten at home, and they drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich there on 10 October.
The table has Augsburg tenth on eight points and Union 17th on five, inside the bottom three. Kick-off at the WWK Arena is 2:30pm UK time.
Union have won one, drawn two and lost three of their six league games, and they’ve averaged fewer than a goal a game. Augsburg have averaged 2.67, more than three times Union’s rate.
Mauro Lustrinelli’s side have picked up four points from their last two, a 1-0 win over Elversberg and a goalless draw with Borussia Dortmund, both in Berlin. It’s progress after a start that brought one point from four games.
Augsburg are 1.83 to win. For a team that has scored twice in every game, hosting one that hasn’t scored away, I’ll take that.
Augsburg: 16 goals in six league games and one home clean sheet in seven 
Manuel Baum’s side won their opening two league games and have taken two points from the four since. The goals haven’t dried up: Augsburg have scored 16 times in six Bundesliga games.
Defending is a different matter. They’ve conceded 12, two a game, and they’ve kept one clean sheet in their last seven home fixtures.
Last weekend’s trip to Elversberg showed both halves of the side. Augsburg were two down inside seven minutes and 3-0 down after 28, pulled it back to 3-2, then lost 4-3 after an 89th-minute goal from Frederik Schmahl. Two of Augsburg’s three came from the penalty spot.
At home they’ve been harder to beat. The 2-2 with Bayern was the second of two straight home draws, and nobody has left the WWK Arena with three points this season.
The squad is short. Baum could be without up to six players, Alexis Claude-Maurice isn’t expected back until early November and Noahkai Banks, close to a return from a knee injury, misses out again.
Michael Gregoritsch leads the line, with 97 career goals behind him, and Kade and Ibrahimovic are expected to play off him. Finn Dahmen keeps his place in goal behind a back three of Matsima, Gouweleeuw and Brackelmann, with Fellhauer and Behrens as wing-backs.
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Union Berlin: no away goals and 17 conceded in six games 
Union have scored five Bundesliga goals in six games and conceded 17, the second-worst defensive record in the division. Only two clean sheets, both at the Alten Forsterei, have kept the numbers from looking worse.
Both of those came in the last fortnight. The 1-0 win over Elversberg on 10 October was Lustrinelli’s first league win, and the 0-0 with Dortmund a week later took a point off the league leaders.
Away from Berlin, Union have nothing to build on yet. Two games, two defeats, no goals, and over their last five matches in all competitions Union have scored two and conceded 14.
Andrej Ilic is a fitness doubt. If he misses out, Woo-Yeong Jeong and Tim Skarke are expected to start together up front, a partnership that hasn’t scored away from home this season.
Frederik Ronnow will be busy. He’s faced 39 shots on target in six league games and saved 22 of them, a save percentage of 56.4.
Aebischer, Schafer, Khedira and Imeri are expected to make up the midfield four. They’ll have to cope with an Augsburg side that has averaged 2.67 league goals a game, and Union have only kept a clean sheet when playing at home.
Probable lineup Augsburg: Dahmen; Matsima, Gouweleeuw, Brackelmann; Fellhauer, Massengo, Rieder, Behrens; Kade, Ibrahimovic; Gregoritsch
Probable lineup Union Berlin: Ronnow; Haberer, Van den Bosch, Uduokhai, Rothe; Aebischer, Schafer, Khedira, Imeri; Jeong, Skarke
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Our prediction: Augsburg to win at 1.83
Augsburg will concede chances, and the last three head-to-heads went Union’s way or ended level. But Union haven’t scored in two away games, have let in 14 in their last five matches and might be without Ilic.
Augsburg have scored at least twice in every game this season, Bayern included. Against a goalkeeper saving barely more than half the shots he faces, two goals should be the minimum again.
I’d back Augsburg to win at 1.83. The draw is 3.90 and Union are 4.10, and I can’t make a case for either based on what Union have shown on the road. Union’s two home results this month were real progress, but they came in Berlin, and this is a side that hasn’t scored a league goal away from home this season.
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