- 1 Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich: three home meetings, no Bayern win in Madrid
- 2 Atlético Madrid: six home games this season, three goals conceded
- 3 Bayern Munich: unbeaten all season, but five European goals conceded in two games
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich: three home meetings, no Bayern win in Madrid 
Bayern Munich have played Atlético Madrid three times in the Spanish capital and haven’t won there once. Atlético won 1-0 in the semi-final first leg on 27 April 2016, won 1-0 again in the group stage on 28 September 2016, and the last visit, on 1 December 2020, finished 1-1. Across all six meetings since 2016, Bayern lead 3-2 with one draw, and all three of their wins came in Munich.
The fourth trip comes on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 20:00 UK time at the Metropolitano, in the fourth round of the Champions League league phase. Bayern sit 14th on five points from three games. Atlético are two places lower on four.
Both records look modest for clubs of this size, and the detail behind them matters. Atlético lost 2-1 at Anfield on the opening night, beat Manchester United 2-0 at home on 13 October and drew 1-1 in Stuttgart on 20 October. Bayern beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0, then drew 3-3 with Viking and 2-2 with Arsenal, conceding five goals in their last two European matches.
The domestic picture runs the other way for Diego Simeone’s side. Atlético are second in La Liga with 25 points from ten matches, two behind Barcelona, and they’ve won six league games in a row. The most recent was a 1-0 home win over Deportivo La Coruña on 24 October, settled by Julián Álvarez. They visit Levante on Saturday before Tuesday’s game, and Barcelona come next weekend.
Bayern arrive without their head coach. Vincent Kompany collapsed while watching the reserves train on 23 October and left hospital on 28 October, with sporting director Max Eberl citing meningeal irritation as the cause. No return date has been given. Assistant Aaron Danks has taken charge for a 3-1 win at Freiburg and a 6-1 cup win over Magdeburg, and he’s due to lead the side against Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena on Saturday, three days before the flight to Madrid.
We think the bookmakers have leaned too heavily on the Bundesliga numbers here. Bayern are 1.91 with Betway and Atlético 3.10, a gap that doesn’t account for where this game is being played or who Bayern will be missing.
Atlético Madrid: six home games this season, three goals conceded 
Atlético haven’t lost at the Metropolitano in 2026-27. They opened with a 2-0 win over Málaga, drew 2-2 with Villarreal, then beat Osasuna 4-0, Real Madrid 2-1, Manchester United 2-0 and Deportivo 1-0. That’s five wins and a draw, with three goals conceded in six games.
The only league defeat came on 5 September, a 3-0 loss at Athletic Club. Since then Atlético have won at Real Sociedad 3-0, at Alavés 2-1 and at Espanyol 1-0, so the side that travels well has also stopped leaking goals on the road.
The summer reshaped the squad. Antoine Griezmann left for Orlando City on 30 June. Álex Grimaldo arrived from Bayer Leverkusen the same day, Morten Hjulmand joined from Sporting CP on 11 July, Lee Kang-in came from Paris Saint-Germain on 25 July and Cristian Romero signed from Tottenham on 15 August. Jonathan David joined on loan from Juventus on 1 September.
Álvarez is the man in form. He’s scored in each of his last two matches, including the winner against Deportivo, and he’s expected to lead the line again. Álex Baena was the club’s top scorer in the early weeks of the season, and Giuliano Simeone is pushing Ademola Lookman for a place on the right.
There are absences. Koke, Romero and Johnny Cardoso were all expected to miss Saturday’s trip to Levante, and Cardoso has a muscle injury. Koke is back in training, but his involvement on Tuesday is unconfirmed. Without Romero, Marc Pubill and Dávid Hancko are the likeliest central pairing, with Robin Le Normand in reserve.
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Bayern Munich: unbeaten all season, but five European goals conceded in two games 
Bayern haven’t lost a competitive game since the season began. They won the German Supercup 2-1 against Dortmund, beat Stuttgart 5-1, Union Berlin 7-0 and RB Leipzig 6-1 in the Bundesliga, and have 17 points from seven league games, level with Dortmund.
The cracks show in the draws. Schalke held them 0-0 on 5 September, Augsburg drew 2-2 on 10 October, and the two Champions League draws, 3-3 against Viking on 13 October and 2-2 against Arsenal on 21 October, produced ten goals between them. Bayern have kept one clean sheet in three European games, against Bodø/Glimt.
The injury list is longer than at any point this season. Luis Díaz, who scored a hat-trick against Leipzig, tore a muscle fibre in his left hamstring against Arsenal and is expected to miss around a month. Jamal Musiala has a thigh injury. Manuel Neuer missed the Freiburg game with tendon irritation in his foot, and Jonas Urbig deputised. Joshua Kimmich missed the Arsenal and Freiburg games after a family bereavement, Aleksandar Pavlovic sat out at Freiburg with a calf problem and illness, and Kim Min-jae has a groin issue.
Several of those players could be back by Tuesday, and Bayern’s depth is still the best in Germany. Michael Olise scored twice against Magdeburg, one of them a penalty, and Ismael Saibari, Alphonso Davies and Nathaniel Brown also scored. Harry Kane has four Bundesliga goals and sat on the bench for the whole of the cup tie.
The schedule is the other concern. Bayern face Dortmund on Saturday at 17:30 UK time in the game that could decide the early Bundesliga lead, then travel to a ground where they’ve never won. Danks will have had three matches as a stand-in by then.
Probable lineup Atlético Madrid: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Barrios, Hjulmand, Baena; G. Simeone, Álvarez, Lee Kang-in
Probable lineup Bayern Munich: Neuer (or Urbig); Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Davies; Pavlovic, Kimmich; Gnabry, Saibari, Olise; Kane
Free Champions League Prediction: Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Our prediction: Atlético Madrid to win (3.10)
We’re taking the home side. Atlético have won five and drawn one of their six home games this season, conceding three goals, and Bayern have never won a competitive match at Atlético. The visitors’ last two European games produced 3-3 and 2-2 scorelines, and the absences of Díaz and Musiala take away two of the players who create most of their chances behind Kane.
Bayern’s Bundesliga form is the main argument against us, and 17 points and 25 goals from seven games isn’t something to dismiss. Still, most of those numbers were built with Kompany on the touchline and a full squad. On Tuesday Bayern will have an interim coach, a Klassiker in their legs from Saturday and a defence that’s conceded five goals in its last two Champions League matches.
At 3.10, Atlético’s price assumes Bayern are close to their best. We don’t think they will be, and Simeone’s side have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions, the only blemish a draw in Stuttgart.
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