- 1 Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alavés: nine of Alavés’ 11 goals have come in Vitoria
- 2 Athletic Bilbao: San Mames has been hit and miss, but it can still throw up a statement result
- 3 Deportivo Alavés: sixth in the table, but only two away goals
- 4 La Liga prediction Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alavés
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alavés: nine of Alavés’ 11 goals have come in Vitoria 
Deportivo Alavés sit sixth in La Liga with 10 points after six rounds. Nine of their 11 goals have come in their four home matches.
The Basque derby takes place at San Mames on Saturday, 19 September, at 16:15 Paris time. Matchday 7 pits sixth against eighth, with only two points between them.
Athletic Bilbao have 8 points from two wins, two draws and two defeats. The record is nothing special, but the results need a closer look.
Both of Athletic’s defeats came against Sevilla and Barcelona, two sides currently in the top six. The two wins arrived away at Vigo and then at home to Atletico Madrid.
That 3-0 win over the Colchoneros on 5 September is the benchmark for the Basque side’s season. No other team has beaten Atletico by that margin this year.
Alavés, meanwhile, have been a tale of two teams: ruthless at home, flat on the road. Three wins from three home games before Valencia turned them over at Mendizorroza, then just one point from two trips.
Both clubs also come into this one off midweek action. Alavés lost 0-1 at home to Valencia on 15 September. Athletic came back from Levante with a goalless draw on 16. That quick turnaround could bite on Saturday afternoon.
Alavés’ attacking output, 11 goals, is better than Atletico Madrid and Sevilla. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid have scored more in La Liga after six matches.
Athletic’s numbers are the most uneven in the middle pack. Two matches without conceding, two more with two goals shipped in each.
Athletic Bilbao: San Mames has been hit and miss, but it can still throw up a statement result 
Athletic have scored 7 goals and conceded 6 in six matches. The +1 goal difference is a fair reflection of a start that has gone nowhere fast.
At San Mames, the home form tells three very different stories. A 1-3 defeat to Sevilla, a 3-0 win over Atletico, then a 1-1 draw against Elche on 12 September.
That draw against the side sitting 19th was the real stumble. Elche had picked up only two points from five games and left Bilbao with a third.
The performance against Atletico still shows what this team can do when the opponent gives them room. Three goals scored, none conceded, against a side built for a top-three finish.
The 2-0 win at Celta Vigo on 30 August also underlines that Athletic can do the job away from home. Bilbao have scored in four of their six games.
The issue is more about consistency than quality. Two goals conceded per game against Sevilla and Barcelona, none against Atletico and Celta — the swing is huge.
Against a side that has failed to win either of its two away games, San Mames becomes a major factor again. Athletic’s only home defeat came against a top-six side.
The opening run has not been kind to the Basques. Sevilla, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid were all among their first four opponents of the season.
Eight points from that sort of schedule is a decent base. The real test of consistency starts now, against teams closer to them in the table.
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Deportivo Alavés: sixth in the table, but only two away goals 
Alavés have scored 11 and conceded 6, giving them a +5 goal difference and sixth place in the table.
The location data changes the picture completely. At Mendizorroza, Alavés beat Getafe 3-0, Villarreal 1-0 and Osasuna 5-2 before losing 0-1 to Valencia, for nine goals scored and three conceded across four home games.
Away from home, the output drops sharply. A 1-1 draw at Vallecas on 20 August, then a 1-2 defeat at Racing Santander on 12 September.
Those two games brought two goals scored and three conceded, miles off their home pace. They are still waiting for their first away win.
The 5-2 thumping of Osasuna on 6 September remains the standout scoreline of the opening weeks for any side outside the top three. It came in Vitoria.
The loss in Santander also ended a four-match unbeaten run. At the time, the fixture was against a promoted side, on paper a softer task than Athletic.
So the question on Saturday is simple: can this team take the edge it shows at Mendizorroza and bring it to a packed San Mames? Nothing from the first six rounds suggests it can.
Defensively, the two sides are now level. Six goals conceded in six matches apiece.
Three of Alavés’ six goals against have come in their only two away matches. Their shape falls apart much more quickly once they leave Vitoria.
Expected Athletic Bilbao line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Expected Deportivo Alavés line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
La Liga prediction Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alavés
Our prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win
Alavés have not won either of their two away games and have scored only two goals on the road, compared with nine across their four home matches. That split is too sharp to ignore in a game of this level.
Athletic, meanwhile, beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 at San Mames and have only been beaten at home by Sevilla, who are sixth in the standings. Today’s opponent does not fit that profile.
The geographical split points the same way as the table. Nine of Alavés’ 11 goals have been scored at Mendizorroza, where all three of their wins were picked up.
We are backing Athletic Bilbao to win. The gap between Alavés’ away form and the demands of a derby at San Mames makes the difference here.
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