- 1 Atalanta vs Frosinone: Sarri’s side sit four points behind a promoted club
- 2 Atalanta: four centre-backs missing and five defeats in seven
- 3 Frosinone: four wins from seven and Serie A’s top scorer up front
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Atalanta vs Frosinone
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atalanta vs Frosinone: Sarri’s side sit four points behind a promoted club 
Antonio Raimondo has scored seven Serie A goals in seven games, and three of them came in one afternoon against Sassuolo. Nobody in the division has more, and the league named him its Rising Star for September.
His Frosinone side go to Bergamo on Sunday (2pm UK time) sixth in the table on 13 points. Atalanta are 11th on nine, with three wins and four defeats from their seven league games. It’s matchday eight, and Atalanta’s third game in eight days after the trip to San Siro and the Thursday night in Amsterdam.
Few people had that order in mind in August. Frosinone came up from Serie B and have won four of their first seven matches back in the top flight, a start that only Juventus and Hellas Verona have matched after promotion in the last 20 years.
History is firmly on Atalanta’s side. They’ve won all three previous Serie A meetings, and Frosinone have failed to score in seven of their eight games against them across Italy’s top two divisions.
I’m siding with the present. Atalanta have lost five of their last seven in all competitions, and after Thursday’s 2-0 defeat to Ajax, Maurizio Sarri said he was without four central defenders.
The home side are 1.75 to win. That price leans on the name on the shirt rather than on anything they’ve done since September.
Atalanta: four centre-backs missing and five defeats in seven 
Giorgio Scalvini, Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou and Sead Kolasinac are all out. Sarri is expected to put Kristensen and Obric in the middle, with Zappacosta and Bernasconi either side of them, a back four that has never been the plan.
The midfield isn’t in much better shape. Franck Kessie is a major doubt with a calf strain, and Kamaldeen Sulemana and Giacomo Raspadori are both unavailable, which leaves Ederson and Gaetano to hold the centre.
The league run has gone sour since a 1-0 win over Bologna. Defeats to Roma (2-1), Cagliari (2-1 in Bergamo) and Juventus (2-0) followed, then a 3-1 win over Venezia, then a 3-2 defeat at AC Milan last weekend.
Europe hasn’t offered any relief. A 3-1 home win over Pafos in the Conference League was followed by Thursday’s 2-0 loss in Amsterdam, where Atalanta didn’t manage a single shot on target.
Bergamo has been kinder, with four wins from six home games across all competitions. Krstovic should lead the line again, with De Ketelaere, Elmas and Rowe behind him.
Across their last five matches Atalanta have scored nine, but they’ve also conceded nine, and that was before the defensive injuries piled up.
Both teams have scored in four of those five games, and four of them went over 2.5 goals. With Scalvini, Hien and Kossounou all missing, it’s hard to see that changing on Sunday.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Frosinone: four wins from seven and Serie A’s top scorer up front 
Frosinone lost 3-0 at Napoli on 10 October. Their response, last weekend, was a 4-2 win over Sassuolo with Raimondo scoring a hat-trick.
That defeat in Naples is the only blemish in a run that includes a 3-0 win at Fiorentina, a 3-2 home win over Venezia, a 2-0 win over Como and a 1-1 draw at Genoa. Massimiliano Alvini’s side have scored in every one of those games.
Raimondo is the finisher, but he isn’t working alone. Kvernadze has been a threat from the left, Schmid supplies from the right, and Calo and Masini give the midfield a bit of bite.
Alvini’s team news is simple. Florian Grillitsch is still recovering from hernia surgery and everyone else should be available, which is the opposite of what Sarri is dealing with.
The season started badly, with a 1-0 home defeat to Juventus on the opening weekend. Since then they’ve taken 13 points from six league games, and the only defeat in that stretch came at the Maradona.
They aren’t watertight. Frosinone have conceded seven in their last five, and Napoli showed what a side with real quality can do to them.
The head-to-head blanks also belong to other Frosinone squads in other seasons. This one has scored three or more three times already in Serie A.
Probable lineup Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Kristensen, Obric, Bernasconi; Gaetano, Ederson; Elmas, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Krstovic
Probable lineup Frosinone: Palmisani; Oyono, Calvani, Cittadini, Bracaglia; Calo, Masini; Ghedjemis, Schmid, Kvernadze; Raimondo
Free Serie A Prediction: Atalanta vs Frosinone
Our prediction: Frosinone or draw (double chance X2) at 2.00
Atalanta have the better players, and I accept they won’t often be priced at 1.75 at home to a promoted side. But they’ve lost five of seven, they’re missing four centre-backs and possibly Kessie, and they didn’t hit the target in Amsterdam three days before this game. The head-to-head is the strongest argument against me, and three Serie A wins from three meetings isn’t nothing, but none of those meetings came with Atalanta’s defence in this state.
Frosinone arrive with four points more than their hosts, a full squad bar Grillitsch and the league’s top scorer. Raimondo against a reshuffled back four is the matchup I’d want to be on the right side of.
I’d back Frosinone or the draw at 2.00. Frosinone have scored in five of their last six league games, and Atalanta have conceded in four of their last five, so I’d expect the visitors to get at least one. A point would be a fair return for them, and a win wouldn’t shock me.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Atalanta and Frosinone on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply