- 1 Atalanta vs Cagliari: six points each, two very different ideas
- 2 Atalanta solid at home, less convincing away
- 3 Cagliari, the team playing the tightest games in Italy
- 4 Serie A Prediction Atalanta vs Cagliari
- 5 First, a note on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Atalanta vs Cagliari: six points each, two very different ideas 
Atalanta and Cagliari are level on points after three Serie A rounds. Six apiece, two wins and a defeat on the board.
That is where the similarity ends. Bergamo have scored four and conceded three, while the Sardinians have managed two goals and let in just one.
The game takes place on Saturday, 12 September at 20:45, Italian time, at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. It is the Saturday night feature of round four.
Maurizio Sarri has taken charge of Atalanta this season and is still trying to strike the right balance between the club’s attacking habits and his own demand for defensive discipline. The early signs are encouraging enough.
At the other end, Fabio Pisacane has built a side that does not see much of the ball but gives very little away. Cagliari’s three matches have produced only three goals in total, across both teams.
The bookmakers have backed the hosts, pricing a Dea win at 1.54. The 2.5 goal line suggests nobody is expecting a goal fest.
In the table, Atalanta are eighth and Cagliari ninth, separated only by goal difference. At this stage of the season, one point can shuffle a few places in a hurry.
One thing both clubs have in common is that they have each lost only to a current top-three side. Atalanta went down in Rome, while Cagliari were beaten by Inter.
Beyond that, both teams have taken the six points available against sides around their own level. The winner on Saturday will briefly join the chasing pack.
Atalanta solid at home, less convincing away 
Atalanta have won both of their games in Bergamo since the restart. A 2-1 against Sassuolo, then a 1-0 win over Bologna.
Their only slip came away at Roma, ending in a 2-1 defeat. That was also the match where the Bergamo defence was tested most heavily.
Four goals in three rounds is not the sort of output this club has been used to under previous managers. Sarri has clearly tightened things up.
Three goals conceded, two of them in that one trip to the Olimpico, point to a defence that looks fairly reliable at home. Dea have allowed just one goal in front of their own fans this season.
Gaetano is suspended for this one, while Kamaldeen Sulemana and Isak Hien are unavailable. Even so, Sarri still has more than enough to name a competitive side.
Up front, the trio of De Ketelaere, Scamacca and Rowe or Raspadori should carry the threat. Most of the creative burden will sit on Charles De Ketelaere’s shoulders.
One goal conceded in two home games puts Atalanta among the most dependable sides in front of their own crowd. Both wins were secured without ever really letting the lead slip.
Four goals scored is still modest for a club used to far better numbers. The attack is the main work in progress at the start of the season.
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Cagliari, the team playing the tightest games in Italy 
Cagliari opened with a 1-0 win at Parma, then lost 1-0 at home to Inter. Two matches, two goals in total.
Round three brought the same story again, with a 1-0 win over Lecce at the Unipol Domus. Three games, three one-goal scorelines.
Two goals scored and one conceded: Cagliari have been involved in the fewest goals of any side in the league. That stat stands out after just three rounds.
The downside is obvious. With that kind of attacking output, one defensive lapse is enough to cost you all three points. That is exactly what happened against Inter.
Pisacane only has to deal with the absence of Felici, the lone player ruled out for this trip. The Sardinian squad is almost at full strength.
The 4-3-2-1 shape, with Maldini tucked in behind the striker, says plenty about the plan: crowd the middle and wait for a chance. Against an Atalanta side that usually controls things at home, it makes sense.
One goal conceded in three rounds puts Cagliari alongside Roma, Lazio and Juventus, three of the top six in the table. Not bad company.
The problem is at the other end, where they have scored only twice, level with Bologna, Venezia and Lecce. That leaves very little room for error.
Projected Atalanta XI: Carnesecchi ; Bellanova, Kossounou, Scalvini, Kolasinac ; Samardzic, Kessie, Ederson ; De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Rowe
Projected Cagliari XI: Caprile ; Zè Pedro, Deiola, Rodriguez, Obert ; Romano, Winks, Fazzini ; Adopo, Maldini ; Mendy
Serie A Prediction Atalanta vs Cagliari
Our pick: Atalanta to win
Two home games, two wins and only one goal conceded: Bergamo’s record in front of their own fans is the strongest argument in the case. The New Balance Arena is a tough place to go.
Cagliari have scored only twice in three rounds, and just once away from home. Against a defence that has not cracked in Bergamo, that does not look enough to get anything.
At 1.54, the price still looks fair for backing a side that keeps winning at home. The call is Atalanta to take it.
The 2.5 goal line offered by the bookmakers tells you plenty about the shape of this contest, with Cagliari yet to score more than once in any match this season. A tight scoreline looks the likeliest outcome.
Atalanta are also the only one of these two sides to have scored twice in a game since the restart. That ability to find another gear often makes the difference in low-scoring matches.
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