- 1 Armenia vs Montenegro: three points each and a depleted back line in Yerevan
- 2 Armenia Analysis
- 3 Montenegro Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Armenia vs Montenegro
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Armenia vs Montenegro: three points each and a depleted back line in Yerevan 
Armenia and Montenegro both have three points after one round of League C, Group 2. Armenia lead only on goal difference, 2-0 against Montenegro’s 2-1.
The two meet on Monday 28 September at 18h00 Paris time at the Hanrapetakan Stadium in Yerevan. They face each other again in Podgorica on 5 October, which gives this first leg of a double-header extra weight in the standings.
Armenia beat Latvia 2-0 on Friday, with defender Georgiy Harutyunyan and 20-year-old Artur Gharibyan scoring their first international goals. Gharibyan, who plays for Rodina Moscow, found the net with his first shot on his Armenia debut.
Montenegro needed a comeback at home to Cyprus. They trailed after 55 minutes before Nikola Krstovic levelled from the penalty spot and then set up Milutin Osmajic for the 86th-minute winner.
The main variable sits in Armenia’s defence. Head coach Yeghishe Melikyan has lost Julio Bueno for the rest of the window, after Styopa Mkrtchyan and Sergey Muradyan had already been ruled out injured.
That leaves four centre-backs for a system built on a back three. Against a Montenegrin attack whose two strikers both contributed a goal on Friday, the balance of this game tilts toward goals at each end.
Armenia also travel to Cyprus on 2 October between the two Montenegro fixtures. Three games in eight days with a thin defensive group is the structural constraint behind every number in this preview.
Armenia Analysis 
Armenia’s 2-0 win over Latvia came with a goal in each half. The scorers were not the usual attacking references: a centre-back and a debutant forward.
Harutyunyan was named player of the match, which underlines his dual role. He is also one of only four fit centre-backs left in the squad.
The other three are Erik Piloyan, Argishti Petrosyan and Erik Simonyan. Petrosyan, 33, and Simonyan both made their senior Armenia debuts against Latvia, Petrosyan replacing Bueno at half-time.
A back three with two players on their second cap is the key weakness heading into Monday. Rotation options are practically nil, and no additional call-up had been announced in the sources consulted.
Melikyan admitted after the Latvia win that he found it hard to celebrate, pointing directly to the loss of Bueno. The coach’s own reaction reflects the real exposure of this defensive unit.
Going forward, the picture is healthier. Two goals, a clean sheet and a debutant scoring with his first shot describe a team in rhythm, and home advantage in Yerevan gives Armenia the platform to score again.
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Montenegro Analysis 
Montenegro created several chances in the first half against Cyprus without breaking through. The opener went the other way, with debutant Marcus Edwards scoring for Cyprus in the 55th minute.
The response came from the striking pair. Krstovic converted a 66th-minute penalty after a foul in the box, then turned provider for Osmajic four minutes from time.
That duo is the core of the analysis. Two strikers who both scored, one of them adding an assist, give Mirko Vucinic a reference point that few League C sides possess.
The defensive side is less convincing. Montenegro conceded at home to a Cyprus side fielding a debutant up front, and needed 31 minutes to overturn the deficit.
The comeback also shows resilience. A team that trails at home and still wins has no reason to abandon its attacking approach on the road.
In Yerevan, Montenegro will face a reshuffled back three with two newcomers. Krstovic and Osmajic are exactly the profiles to test inexperienced central defenders in the box.
Probable lineup Armenia: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Montenegro: Not announced at time of publication.
Free Football Prediction: Armenia vs Montenegro
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Armenia enter this game with four fit centre-backs, two of them on their second cap. Montenegro arrive with two strikers who both delivered on Friday.
At the other end, Montenegro conceded at home to Cyprus, while Armenia scored twice without relying on their usual attacking names. Both sides have shown a route to goal and a defensive flaw.
The stakes of the double-header reinforce it. Neither side can afford a passive approach in the first leg when the return fixture follows a week later.
On this basis, the most likely outcome is a goal for each team in Yerevan. Both teams to score is the selection.
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