- 1 Armenia vs Latvia: four goals at one end, three at the other across the last five matches as both attacks point to a tight night in Yerevan
- 2 Armenia: no wins in five, but two draws to end the run
- 3 Latvia: two straight 1-0 wins, and just three goals across five games
- 4 Football prediction Armenia vs Latvia
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Facts can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Armenia vs Latvia: four goals at one end, three at the other across the last five matches as both attacks point to a tight night in Yerevan 
Armenia have scored four goals in their last five games. Latvia have managed three over the same stretch.
Seven goals in 10 matches. That is the number that tells you all you need to know about the attacking level of both sides heading into this opening round. Neither team has scored more than once in any of its last four outings.
The match is at the Vazgen Sargsyan Stadium in Yerevan, kicking off at 18:00 Paris time. It launches Group C2 for the evening, ahead of Montenegro against Cyprus at 20:45.
Group C2 features Montenegro, Armenia, Cyprus and Latvia. The Latvians made it here through the March play-offs, after seeing off Gibraltar over two legs.
The two teams come in on very different runs in terms of results, but they are close enough in performance. Armenia have not won in five matches, while Latvia are riding two straight victories.
The bookmakers lean towards the home side, but only just, and set the goal line at 2.5. That fits the recent pattern from both camps, where narrow scorelines have been the norm.
The league phase runs until 17 November 2026, with promotion to League B for the group winner and relegation to League D for the bottom side. In a section this tight, every point matters from day one.
Armenia: no wins in five, but two draws to end the run 
Armenia have not won in five matches. Three defeats came first, then two draws in June.
The low point of that run came on 16 November 2025 in Portugal. A 9-1 hiding, which throws every defensive average from that spell out of whack.
Take that freak result out, and the picture looks a lot cleaner. They conceded four goals in the other four matches, including just one against Hungary and two against Belarus.
The June response is the key detail for Friday. A 1-1 draw with Kazakhstan on 6 June, then another 1-1 with Moldova on 9 June, giving them back-to-back games without defeat for the first time in more than six months.
The scoring pattern is still limited, but it has been steady. Armenia have scored exactly once in each of their last four matches, never more.
Home advantage matters for a side that does not often find itself in the favourite’s seat. Yerevan now hosts an opponent who has not scored more than once since November.
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Latvia: two straight 1-0 wins, and just three goals across five games 
Latvia arrive on the back of two straight wins, both against Gibraltar in the March Nations League play-offs. A 1-0 away on 26 March, then a 1-0 home win on 31 March.
Those two results kept Latvia in League C. They also tell you how this team gets the job done: by the narrowest of margins.
The rest of the run is far less impressive. A 5-0 loss to England in October 2025, a 0-0 draw with North Macedonia, then a 2-1 defeat in Serbia.
Their attacking return over five matches is just three goals, all of them in the last three outings. There has not been a game with two Latvia goals for more than 11 months.
Defensively, though, things have tightened since the autumn. Three clean sheets in the last five matches, including both legs of the Gibraltar play-off.
The trip to Yerevan is the first proper test of this new cycle. Latvia have not faced a side at their own level since the draw with North Macedonia in November 2025.
Probable Armenia lineup: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable Latvia lineup: Not announced at time of publication.
Football prediction Armenia vs Latvia
Our prediction: under 2.5 goals
The first reason is the last four matches from both sides. Armenia have scored just one goal per game, and Latvia have done the same across their two wins.
The second is the actual totals from those matches. Armenia’s last two games ended 1-1, Latvia’s last two ended 1-0, making it four straight matches under 2.5 goals.
Latvia have also kept three clean sheets in their last five outings, and Armenia have not scored two goals in a game for a very long time. The call is clear: under 2.5 goals in Yerevan.
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