- 1 Argentina vs Uruguay: 14 goals scored, none conceded, and the first squad without Messi
- 2 Argentina: Nico Paz has scored in every game since the final, with Lautaro, Romero and Dibu all missing
- 3 Uruguay: 10 goals in two games in Asia, after a two-point World Cup
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Argentina vs Uruguay
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Argentina vs Uruguay: 14 goals scored, none conceded, and the first squad without Messi
Argentina have scored 14 goals and conceded none in three matches since losing the World Cup final. Bolivia were beaten 4-0 in Córdoba on 30 September, Burkina Faso 7-0 at the Monumental on 3 October and Benin 3-0 three nights later.
The last of those was Lionel Messi’s final international. He signed off with a penalty, his 126th goal in 208 caps, and Otamendi, who opened the scoring that night, has also stepped away from the national team. Friday’s friendly with Uruguay is the first game for the squad Lionel Scaloni named on 3 November.
The match is at La Bombonera on Friday 13 November, kick-off 20:00 local time, 23:00 UK time. It’s the first of two home friendlies that close Argentina’s year, with Costa Rica to follow in Córdoba on 17 November.
Uruguay arrive under Diego Forlán, who took charge on an interim basis after Marcelo Bielsa left in August. Uruguay went out of the World Cup in the group stage, third with two points, and Forlán’s three friendlies since have produced a 3-1 defeat in Japan and wins over South Korea and India.
The venue carries a memory for the visitors. Uruguay won 2-0 at La Bombonera in a World Cup qualifier on 17 November 2023, their only win in the last eight meetings. Argentina have won five of those eight and the other two were drawn.
Bookmakers have Argentina at 1.69, the draw at 3.84 and Uruguay at 6.10. We think the home price is fair, and most of our reasoning sits in the Argentina defence rather than the attack.
Argentina: Nico Paz has scored in every game since the final, with Lautaro, Romero and Dibu all missing 
Nico Paz scored against Bolivia, Burkina Faso and Benin, one goal in each. With Lautaro Martínez injured, he’s the most productive attacker Scaloni has available this week. Lautaro had two goals across those three friendlies.
The list of absentees is long. Lautaro, Cristian Romero and Nicolás González are injured. Nahuel Molina and Leandro Paredes are serving FIFA suspensions after incidents at the World Cup, and Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso were left out by the coach, Lo Celso after only four appearances for Betis this season.
Emiliano Martínez was called up despite a jaw fracture suffered against Everton, and he hasn’t played since 17 October. Both probable line-ups published in Argentina on 9 November start Rulli in goal. We expect the same.
The back four has changed with Romero and Otamendi gone. Balerdi and Lisandro Martínez are the likely centre-back pair, and Gonzalo Montiel is back on the right after missing the September and October games. Chelsea’s Aarón Anselmino, 21, and Parma’s Mariano Troilo have their first senior call-ups.
Further forward, Giuliano Simeone, Julián Álvarez and Almada are expected to start, with Paz alongside Enzo Fernández and Mac Allister. Almada scored the only goal when these sides last met, 1-0 in Montevideo in March 2025.
We’d put more weight on the clean sheets than the goals. Bolivia, Burkina Faso and Benin aren’t Uruguay, but Argentina haven’t conceded since the final against Spain on 19 July, which they lost 1-0 after extra time.
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Uruguay: 10 goals in two games in Asia, after a two-point World Cup 
Uruguay scored 10 times in their last two matches. They won 4-1 in Seoul on 28 September, with Darwin Núñez scoring twice, and 6-1 in Kolkata on 6 October, where Maxi Araújo got two and Núñez converted a penalty.
Forlán’s first game in charge went the other way. Japan won 3-1 in Miyagi on 24 September. Maxi Araújo cancelled out an 11th-minute opener on 42 minutes, and Japan then scored twice in the first six minutes of the second half.
This squad is stronger than the one that toured Asia. Valverde is back from injury, De la Cruz returns after being left out, and Canobbio is available again after serving the suspension from his red card against Spain at the World Cup. Torreira is recalled for the first time in four years.
There are still gaps. Nahitan Nández and Brian Rodríguez are injured, and Miguel Merentiel stays with Boca for the Copa Sudamericana final. Bruno Damiani, with 12 goals in 19 games over the last four months, is one of the surprise names.
The expected XI has Mele, of Independiente, in goal behind G. Varela, R. Araújo, J.M. Giménez and Piquerez. Valverde, Bentancur and De Arrascaeta would make up the midfield, with Pellistri, Núñez and Maxi Araújo in attack.
The record on the road in this fixture works against them. Uruguay have failed to score in five of their last seven visits to Argentina, and five of the last eight meetings in Argentina ended with two goals or fewer. The 2023 win at this ground is the exception in that run.
Probable lineup Argentina: Rulli; Montiel, Balerdi, Lisandro Martínez, Tagliafico; Enzo Fernández, Mac Allister, Nico Paz; G. Simeone, J. Álvarez, Almada
Probable lineup Uruguay: Mele; G. Varela, R. Araújo, J.M. Giménez, Piquerez; Valverde, Bentancur, De Arrascaeta; Pellistri, Núñez, Maxi Araújo
Free Football Prediction: Argentina vs Uruguay
Our prediction: Argentina to win (1.69)
We’re backing Argentina at 1.69. They’ve kept three straight clean sheets, Uruguay have failed to score on five of their last seven trips to Argentina, and Forlán’s big wins came against South Korea and India rather than a side at this level.
We accept the case against: no Lautaro, no Romero, a reshaped back line and a first-choice goalkeeper who may not be fit. Uruguay also won on this ground three years ago. We still give more weight to Argentina’s home record in the fixture and to Paz’s form than to one result from 2023.
For a second angle, both teams to score “No” is priced at 1.65. A 1-0 or 2-0 home win would land both selections, and it fits the five of the last eight meetings in Argentina that finished with two goals or fewer.
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