- 1 USA vs Mexico: eight goals in two games against two draws, the rivalry returns in Glendale
- 2 USA Analysis
- 3 Mexico Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: USA vs Mexico
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
USA vs Mexico: eight goals in two games against two draws, the rivalry returns in Glendale 
Eight goals in two matches. That is what the United States have produced in this international window, and four of them came from teenagers.
The USA host Mexico at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on the night of Saturday 3 October local time. Kick-off is at 10:00 p.m. ET, which means 04:00 Paris time on Sunday 4 October.
The form lines are clear. Mauricio Pochettino’s side beat Peru 4-1 and Chile 4-2, while Mexico have opened the Rafael Marquez era with two 1-1 draws, against Colombia and Peru.
This is the first meeting since the 2025 Gold Cup final, which Mexico won 2-1. Pochettino has not beaten El Tri since taking charge in 2024, with two defeats on his record.
The stadium is indoors, so weather will play no part. The market has priced this close to a coin toss, with the USA a slight favourite at around 2.50.
That price is too generous for the side in form. Mexico are without a win under their new coach, and their key creator is carrying an ankle problem.
USA Analysis 
Pochettino has leaned on youth in this window and it has paid off. The USMNT have seen three or more goals in seven of their last nine matches.
Six of the eight goals in this window came after half-time. This group keeps pushing to the final whistle, which suits a rivalry game that rarely calms down.
Cavan Sullivan, 17, is the name to watch. He started against Peru, came off the bench late against Chile and arrives fresh for this one.
Julian Hall is expected to lead the line after scoring in both games. Sebastian Berhalter has two goals and two assists in the last two outings and anchors the double pivot, likely alongside Tyler Adams.
The weak spot is in goal. All four goalkeepers have shown concerns in this window, and Chris Brady is the likely pick ahead of out-of-form Matt Freese.
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Mexico Analysis 
Mexico started the Marquez era with a promising display against Colombia. The follow-up against Peru was flat, with a heavily rotated lineup.
That rotation was deliberate. Marquez rested his first-choice XI for this match, and expects to field a side close to the one that started Mexico’s World Cup knockout games.
The big question is Gilberto Mora. The 17-year-old creator injured his ankle in training, returned to training afterwards, and is expected to start if fit.
The defense loses Cesar Montes, so Israel Reyes should partner Johan Vasquez in the centre. Raul Rangel starts in goal behind them.
Up front, Armando Gonzalez and German Berterame have struggled in this window. Santiago Gimenez could get the nod, with Roberto Alvarado and Hirving Lozano on the flanks.
Probable lineup USA (4-2-3-1): Brady; Freeman, Richards, Trusty, Robinson; Adams, Berhalter; Dest, Tillman, Sullivan; Hall
Probable lineup Mexico (4-3-3): Rangel; Sanchez, Reyes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Romo, Lira, Mora; Alvarado, Gimenez, Lozano
Free Football Prediction: USA vs Mexico
Our prediction: USA to win (odds around 2.50)
The USA are the side in form, with eight goals in two games and a squad playing with energy right up to the last minute. Mexico have not won under Marquez yet.
Mora’s ankle is a real question mark for El Tri’s main creative outlet. Even if he plays, he will not be at full sharpness against a pressing, youthful American midfield.
The goalkeeping doubt on the US side is the main risk, and Mexico can score. We still back the hosts to win a lively game, something in the 3-1 or 2-1 range.
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Information changes
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