- 1 South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks: a 4-for-41 hangover meets a 0-3 start
- 2 South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis
- 3 Illawarra Hawks Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks: a 4-for-41 hangover meets a 0-3 start 
South East Melbourne Phoenix host the Illawarra Hawks at John Cain Arena on Sunday 4 October, with tip-off at 6h00 Paris time. One side shot 4-for-41 from three last time out, and the other has not won a game yet.
This is a Round 3 fixture in NBL27, and both clubs arrive with something to prove. Phoenix want to bury a night they will never forget, while Illawarra want to stop a slide that already has people calling the season a long one.
Phoenix opened the campaign with a 100-79 win in Perth, then ran into Melbourne United and lost 86-61. The Hawks sit on 0-3 after road defeats to the Breakers, the Bullets and the Kings.
Both teams play on a short turnaround here. Phoenix travel back from Perth after their Friday game, and Illawarra head south after hosting Adelaide.
That fatigue cuts both ways, but it hurts the side with the thinner rotation more. Right now that side is the Hawks, who are missing Todd Blanchfield and Mason Peatling.
The crossed results tell the story. Phoenix lost by 25 on an ice-cold shooting night, while Illawarra lost by 21 to the defending champions and gave up 46 rebounds to 25.
One of those losses is a freak, and the other is a pattern. That is where this prediction starts.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis 
Phoenix are 1-1, and their two games could not look more different. They won the fourth quarter 35-17 in Perth, then scored just four points in the final period against United.
The United game was a shooting accident more than a structural failure. Phoenix missed their first 13 threes and finished 4-for-41, which is 9.8 per cent from deep and 27 per cent overall.
Teams that build their offence around spacing do not stay that cold for long. Phoenix came agonisingly close to a Grand Final last season, and shooting is what normally defines them.
Tanner Krebs hit five threes on the way to 25 points in the opener, and Dash Daniels put up 24 points and 12 rebounds in his debut. Skylar Mays runs the show with 16 points and six assists in the first game and 10 points and five assists in the second.
Daniels is only 18, and he already looks like a rotation piece rather than a prospect. That gives Josh King a young wing who finishes plays on both ends.
The one injury to watch is Daniel Foster, who is listed with a back problem and no return date. He is the only Phoenix name on the league injury list.
Home court matters in this one. John Cain Arena is where Phoenix get their rhythm back, and the rebound from a historic miss rate usually arrives in the very next game.
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Illawarra Hawks Analysis 
Illawarra are 0-3, and every one of those games was away from home. They lost 95-81 in New Zealand, 103-95 in Brisbane and 121-100 in Sydney.
The offence is not the problem. Sam Froling averages 24.3 points and Milton Doyle averages 23.7, and the team scores more than 92 points a game.
The defence is where the games leak away. Sydney outrebounded the Hawks 46-25 and got to the line 32 times against 17, which is a team being bullied on both ends.
The roster is also in flux. The club parted with import Darius Days after one game and is still hunting a replacement, with Kelan Martin and Doyle as the current imports.
Tyler Harvey, now an Australian citizen, and William Hickey give the Hawks real shot-making around Froling. Hickey scored 18 points with nine rebounds in the opener, and Froling hit 9 of 13 against the Kings.
Coach Justin Tatum has promised a different conversation in a month. That is a long way off, and Sunday arrives much sooner.
Injuries make it worse, with Blanchfield out with a hand problem and Peatling out with a foot injury. Without a backup centre, one foul trouble spell for Froling can sink a quarter.
Probable lineup South East Melbourne Phoenix: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Illawarra Hawks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks
Our prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix win
Phoenix have the better roster, the home floor and a shooting night that will not repeat. Bookmakers lean the same way, with the Phoenix laying 4.5 points on the spread.
The Hawks have conceded 95, 103 and 121 in three games, and Phoenix scored 100 in their one good night. A team with that much shooting talent facing a defence in that shape is a clear mismatch.
The rebounding gap from Sydney is the second warning sign for Illawarra. A Phoenix frontcourt with Akech Aliir, Jordan Hunter and Tanner Krebs, who each grabbed at least six boards against United, can own the glass even on a bad shooting night.
Mays is the other swing factor, because he creates open looks for everyone around him. Once the first few threes drop, the crowd takes over and the Hawks have to chase the game.
The only way this goes wrong for Phoenix is another cold night combined with tired legs after Perth. Even then, the Hawks need a perfect defensive effort they have not shown in three tries.
Take Phoenix to bounce back and make a statement at home.
in your pocket.
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