- 1 Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: a perfectly balanced head-to-head and a 0-0 last time out
- 2 Lithuania Analysis
- 3 Azerbaijan Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: a perfectly balanced head-to-head and a 0-0 last time out 
Lithuania lost all six of their matches in the 2024-25 Nations League. On Thursday they opened the new edition with a 2-0 win over Liechtenstein, and on Sunday 27 September they host Azerbaijan at 15h00 Paris time at the Darius and Girenas Stadium.
The competitive context is unusual. League D is being removed for the 2028-29 edition, so every team in this tier will move up to League C regardless of results.
That does not make the group meaningless. Finishing first still brings momentum and a better standing for the next cycle, and both coaches have treated this window seriously.
The two nations meet twice in eight days. After this game Lithuania play a friendly against Andorra on 30 September, then travel to Azerbaijan for the return fixture on 4 October.
Lithuania’s win on Thursday also gives them a head start, with three points already on the board. Azerbaijan, playing their first group game, cannot afford to fall behind before hosting the return fixture.
The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: one win each and one draw in three meetings. The most recent of them, a friendly in March 2019, finished 0-0.
Form lines point the same way. Lithuania read LWLWLW across all competitions and Azerbaijan LWWLWW, two records that show sides able to win but not yet able to build a long run.
Bookmakers struggle to separate the sides, with the home win at 2.38 and the away win at 2.88. When the market sees a match this tight, the total goals line becomes the more readable angle.
Lithuania Analysis 
Lithuania’s 2-0 win in Vaduz was built on efficiency rather than volume. Lukas Michelbrink and Artur Dolzikov scored the goals, and the defence kept a clean sheet.
That alternating form line reflects a team capable of results but not yet of a run. Thursday’s win was still a clear step forward for a squad that had not won a Nations League game in the previous edition.
Lithuania’s record in that campaign, six defeats from six, shows how fragile the base was. One clean-sheet win does not erase it, but it changes the mood in the camp.
Edgaras Jankauskas has reported no new injury problems. Given the performance in Liechtenstein, the same starting eleven is the most likely option.
Utkas and Tutyskinas are expected to keep their places in a back four that did not concede on Thursday. Goalkeeper Bartkus completes a defensive unit that Jankauskas has no reason to change.
Armandas Kucys is expected to lead the attack again, with Michelbrink retaining his place in midfield. Michelbrink’s goal on Thursday showed that the threat can come from midfield as well as from the front line.
The decisive point for Lithuania is control rather than firepower. A second clean sheet in four days would put them in a strong position before the return leg away from home.
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Azerbaijan Analysis 
Azerbaijan play their first game in the group on Sunday, and they arrive with two consecutive wins. They beat Tajikistan 1-0 in a friendly on Wednesday, after a victory over San Marino on 9 June.
Their form across all competitions reads LWWLWW. Aykhan Abbasov’s side are chasing a third straight win, something that would confirm a recovery after a difficult period.
Azerbaijan were relegated from League C in the 2024-25 edition, and this is their first League D campaign since 2018-19. The squad still carries experience at the back, with Badavi Guseynov and Anton Kryvotsyuk in line to start.
The key player is Emin Mahmudov, who has 16 goals for the national side from midfield. Mahir Emreli and Renat Dadasov are expected to form the front two.
The concern is fatigue. The Tajikistan friendly was only four days before this trip, and Azerbaijan face three Nations League games during this window, which limits how aggressively they can play.
Mahmudov’s goal threat from deep is the main danger for Lithuania’s midfield. If Michelbrink and Vorobjovas limit his time on the ball, Azerbaijan lose their main creative source.
Abbasov’s squad will then host Liechtenstein on 1 October before welcoming Lithuania three days later. That schedule makes a point away from home a perfectly acceptable result for the visitors.
Probable lineup Lithuania: Bartkus; Sirvys, Kazukolovas, Utkas, Tutyskinas; Gineitis, Vorobjovas, Michelbrink; Jankauskas, Kucys, Lasickas
Probable lineup Azerbaijan: Balayev; Guseynov, Bayramov, Mammadov, Badalov; Mahmudov, Khaybulayev, Isayev, Sadykhov; Emreli, Dadasov
Free Football Prediction: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals
The key data point is the head-to-head profile: three meetings, one win each, one draw, and a 0-0 in the most recent game. Lithuania’s win on Thursday came with a clean sheet, and both goals came from Michelbrink and Dolzikov.
Azerbaijan’s latest win was a narrow 1-0 against Tajikistan, and their legs will carry a short turnaround. Two cautious sides with a return fixture a week later rarely produce an open match.
Sports Mole’s preview also leans towards a tight contest with little separating the sides. Both teams are building towards the return leg, and neither will want to open the game up early.
Both teams to score is priced at 2.00 or above, a sign that bookmakers also doubt both attacks will deliver. The under line at 1.50 is the market that matches the data most closely.
On this basis, the most likely outcome is a low total. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.50 with the top bookmakers, and that is our pick.
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