- 1 Austria vs Kosovo: 24.3 shots per game against a 19-involvement striker
- 2 Austria Analysis
- 3 Kosovo Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Austria vs Kosovo
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Austria vs Kosovo: 24.3 shots per game against a 19-involvement striker 
Two matches, two wins, and a first-ever meeting: Austria and Kosovo arrive in Vienna as the joint leaders of League B Group 3 after matchday one. Kick-off at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion is set for Sunday 27 September at 18h00 Paris time.
The numbers from Thursday frame the context precisely. Austria beat Israel 3-1 in Linz, while Kosovo edged the Republic of Ireland 1-0 in Pristina, so the winner on Sunday takes sole control of the section.
This is the second of four fixtures in ten days for both squads, which makes rotation a measurable factor. Ralf Rangnick has named seven uncapped players for this window, a clear signal that selection will move from game to game.
The structural gap is real but narrower than the reputations suggest. In the previous Nations League edition, only two League B sides scored more than Austria, and Kosovo reached this tier for the first time after winning both legs of a promotion playoff against Iceland.
Rangnick’s mandate is explicit: his contract renewal was agreed before the World Cup, with promotion to League A and a place at Euro 2028 as targets. Two years ago Austria finished second in their group and then lost a promotion playoff to Serbia, so first place is the only acceptable result this time.
Kosovo’s context is the opposite, a side still climbing. They are playing in League B for the first time, and Thursday’s win over Ireland was their first result at this level.
The analytical question is therefore not who controls the ball, but whether Kosovo can convert the few chances they will get. Their captain has already answered that once this week, and that single variable shapes our reading of the scoreline.
Group standing adds weight to every goal. Early signs point to these two sides contesting first place when the group reaches its conclusion in November, which makes head-to-head goal difference relevant from the very first meeting.
Austria Analysis 
Austria’s attacking output is the headline figure. Across Nations League fixtures they average 24.3 shots per game with 54.1% possession, according to the Football Faithful data.
Austria also scored freely in qualifying for this summer’s World Cup, where they went out to eventual champions Spain in the last 32. The attacking identity has survived that exit, even if the personnel is changing.
That volume translated into three goals against Israel on Thursday, but the timing matters. It took two late strikes, from Phillipp Mwene and Sasa Kalajdzic, to break down an opponent reduced to ten men.
The squad is in transition, and the absentee list is long. Marko Arnautovic has retired from international duty, Marcel Sabitzer is taking a break, Konrad Laimer is out with an adductor problem and captain David Alaba was not selected after spending the summer without a club before joining Udinese.
Up front, Michael Gregoritsch left the Israel game with an ankle injury and is a likely absentee. Kalajdzic, Christoph Lang or Junior Adamu are the options to lead the line, with Kalajdzic already on the scoresheet this week.
Defensively, Austria conceded against Israel even while dominating territory. With an 83% both-teams-to-score rate recorded in their Nations League games, the data points to a side that scores freely but rarely keeps the door fully shut.
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Kosovo Analysis 
Kosovo come into Vienna on the back of four wins from their last seven competitive matches. The latest was the 1-0 success over Ireland, sealed in the 83rd minute after sustained pressure on the Irish penalty area.
The scorer was Vedat Muriqi, who also scored four goals for Fenerbahce the previous weekend. His strike took his tally of Nations League goal involvements to 19, a figure bettered only by Erling Haaland in the competition’s history.
Kosovo’s trajectory over the past year is consistent. They finished second in their World Cup qualifying group, won a seven-goal playoff semi-final against Slovakia and fell 1-0 to Turkey one step from the finals.
The weak point is the back line. Amir Rrahmani is no longer available, which removes the former captain and Napoli centre-back from Franco Foda’s setup, and Kosovo average only 41.9% possession in the Nations League.
That profile implies long spells without the ball and a reliance on transitions. With Zhegrova supporting Muriqi, Kosovo have the tools to score on the counter even in a game where Austria dominate the shot count.
Teenage midfielder Erblin Osmani made his international debut with a late cameo against Ireland. He is the second-youngest player to appear for Bayern Munich in a Bundesliga match, at 16 years and 306 days.
Captaincy passed to Muriqi against Ireland, and he responded with the winner. For a side built around one finisher, that dependence is both the strength and the risk.
Probable lineup Austria: A. Schlager; Posch, Lienhart, Danso, Mwene; Seiwald, X. Schlager; Wimmer, Schmid, Wanner; Kalajdzic
Probable lineup Kosovo: Muric; Dellova, Hajdari, I. Krasniqi; Vojvoda, Hoxha, Avdullahu, Gallapeni; Zhegrova, E. Krasniqi; Muriqi
Free Football Prediction: Austria vs Kosovo
Our prediction: Both teams to score: Yes
Austria’s defensive record in the Nations League is the key input: an 83% both-teams-to-score rate, and a goal conceded to Israel on Thursday despite territorial control. Kosovo, for their part, have a striker with 19 Nations League goal involvements who scored the decisive goal three days ago.
Rotation reinforces the reading, with four matches in ten days and seven uncapped players in the Austrian squad. The home side should create the higher volume of chances, but a clean sheet against Muriqi and Zhegrova is not the most likely outcome.
The odds confirm the imbalance at the top of the market, with the home win priced between 1.44 and 1.50 and Kosovo at 6.00. At that price the home win offers little margin, so the goals market is the better reading.
On this basis, the most likely outcome is goals at both ends. Both teams to score is priced at 1.83 with the top bookmakers, and that is our pick.
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