- 1 Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans : four games, four losses, and the AFC South’s worst start
- 2 Indianapolis Colts, the league’s worst defense needs fixing fast
- 3 Houston Texans, all pass and not enough points to show for it
- 4 NFL Prediction Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your job
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans : four games, four losses, and the AFC South’s worst start 
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans head into Week 3 with identical records: two defeats, no wins. It’s the only Sunday matchup to bring together two teams still chasing their first victory.
This is an AFC South battle, and Houston have held the upper hand in the division in recent seasons. The Texans have won their last five meetings with the Colts, each by eight points or fewer.
On the numbers, the AFC South has belonged to Houston and Jacksonville in recent years, while Indianapolis remain stuck in a rebuild that still hasn’t started paying off on defense. That division backdrop shapes the read on this game.
The close run of this series tells you one thing: these teams know each other well, and these games usually come down to the small stuff. It doesn’t exactly scream a comfy afternoon for Houston on Sunday.
Even so, the two sides have taken very different paths to start the year. The Indianapolis Colts are giving up an average of 37 points per game, the worst mark in the league, while Houston are leaning almost entirely on the pass without turning drives into touchdowns in the red zone.
That gap on defense drives the whole forecast. It matters more than the Texans’ offensive doubts, and it’s why the pick points toward Houston at 19:00 Paris time at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis Colts, the league’s worst defense needs fixing fast 
The numbers are brutal: the Indianapolis Colts have the NFL’s worst defense across three combined categories after two weeks. 37,0 points allowed per game, 514,5 total yards allowed, 337,5 passing yards allowed.
No other team in the league is that far behind in all three areas. The Colts defense has also forced just one turnover in two games, a paltry return for a unit meant to at least limit the damage.
That turnover split has gone badly against the Indianapolis Colts. One takeaway versus several giveaways on offense, and that ratio explains a big chunk of the gap on the scoreboard through the first two games.
Their first loss came in Baltimore, where the Ravens piled up more than 500 yards against this same defense. The second came in Kansas City, where the Colts eventually cracked in overtime after staying in it for most of the night.
Daniel Jones is running the offense with Jonathan Taylor behind him at running back and Josh Downs as the main receiving option. The group are without Alec Pierce, sidelined for several weeks, while Micheal Clemons and Charvarius Ward are both carrying defensive doubts.
A defense this leaky almost hands the ball to opposing attacks, even one like Houston’s that has been clumsy in the key moments. That’s what makes this game easy to read despite the mess on both offense and defense.
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Houston Texans, all pass and not enough points to show for it 
Houston have built their offense almost entirely around the pass. 67 % of their offensive snaps have gone through C.J. Stroud’s arm since the start of the season, the highest rate in the NFL.
That dependence has an obvious downside: finishing drives. The Texans reached the red zone four times in their second game and came away with zero touchdowns.
The schedule hasn’t been kind either. Houston first fell in a wild one against Buffalo, then came up empty in their home loss to Cincinnati last week.
Even so, they still have a clear identity: control the clock and trust Stroud to keep things tidy in the short game rather than chase big plays. That keeps the margin for error thin, but it hasn’t produced a win yet this season.
Around Stroud, Dalton Schultz remains the safety valve at tight end and David Montgomery carries the load on the ground. Nico Collins, the group’s top receiver, is listed as doubtful for this trip to Indianapolis, which only weakens the passing game further.
Still, the recent record leans strongly Houston’s way in this specific matchup. Five straight wins over the Colts, all by eight points or less, point to a team that knows how to get it done in tight finishes, even when the offense is stuck in first gear.
NFL Prediction Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Our pick: Houston Texans to win
The Colts defense is allowing an average of 514,5 yards per game, the worst figure in the league through the first two weeks. A Texans offense built on the pass, even if it’s been blunt in the red zone, should have more than enough yardage to get the job done over the full 60 minutes.
The recent head-to-head record backs that up: five straight Houston wins against Indianapolis, each by less than a full score. That’s the sort of pattern that fits the way these teams are playing right now.
This pick is built more on a clear defensive edge than on any huge offensive confidence in Houston. Worth keeping in mind if you’re looking for a different angle on the game, maybe a small handicap rather than the straight moneyline.
The call is simple for Sunday in Indianapolis: Houston should leave with the win, with the Colts’ defense likely to matter more than the Texans’ issues in the red zone.
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