- 1 Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights: +336 to +42, the points differential says it all
- 2 Penrith Panthers: 18 wins, a week off and Cleary calling the shots
- 3 Newcastle Knights: two knockout games in two weeks and Ponga back in the mix
- 4 NRL prediction Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your job
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights: +336 to +42, the points differential says it all 
Penrith finished the regular season with a points differential of +336, the best in the Telstra Premiership. Newcastle ended up at +42, seventh in the table.
That gap of almost 300 points is the biggest number going into this semi-final. It pits the minor premiers against the last team standing from the lower half of the top eight.
Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 September at 08:00, at Accor Stadium in Sydney. The winner goes on to the 2026 Grand Final.
The two routes to this point could hardly look more different. Penrith beat the Sydney Roosters 19-12 in the qualifying final, earning a full week off.
Newcastle came the hard way, through sudden death. The Knights first knocked out South Sydney in week one, then went to Eden Park and beat the Warriors 12-10.
That win in New Zealand carried extra weight. Kalyn Ponga left the field seven minutes from time after entering concussion protocol, and his side held on without him.
For Penrith, this is a seventh straight semi-final, a run without a modern equal in the competition. The club has been here every year since 2020.
For Newcastle, the prize is bigger still: victory would send the club to the Grand Final for the first time in 25 years.
Australian bookmakers have Penrith at 1.28 and the Knights at 3.70, with a handicap line of 10.5 points and a total of 42.5.
The NRL finals format explains part of that gap. The top two sides that win their qualifying finals get a week off and host the semi-finals.
Newcastle, who finished seventh, never had that luxury. The Knights have had to win two knockout matches just to get here.
Penrith Panthers: 18 wins, a week off and Cleary calling the shots 
Eighteen wins and six defeats in 24 rounds: Penrith bossed the regular season from start to finish. Minor premiership was settled on points differential ahead of the Warriors.
The 19-12 win over the Roosters in the qualifying final underlined the club’s ability to grind out tight games. Conceding just 12 in a sudden-death clash is the mark of a proper finals defence.
The week off that followed is the clearest edge in this match-up. The Panthers arrive fresh while their opponents keep going.
Ivan Cleary has stuck with a familiar side, with no real surprises. Dylan Edwards at fullback, Nathan Cleary at halfback and Isaah Yeo at lock form the spine of the side.
Brian To’o and Thomas Jenkins are on the wings, with Blaize Talagi and Casey McLean in the centres. Jack Cole partners Cleary in the halves.
Up front, Moses Leota and Lindsay Smith start at prop, with Mitch Kenny at hooker. Isaiah Papali’i and Liam Martin line up in the second row.
The bench is Jack Cogger, Scott Sorensen, Liam Henry and Billy Phillips. Luke Garner, Billy Scott and Izack Tago are among the reserves.
The key point is the blend of the best defence in the competition, an international halfback, and seven extra days of recovery over the opposition.
The 42.5-point total set by bookmakers reflects that defensive reading. Neither side has been involved in a high-scoring game in this finals series.
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Newcastle Knights: two knockout games in two weeks and Ponga back in the mix 
Fourteen wins and 10 defeats in the regular season saw Newcastle finish seventh, level on points with South Sydney.
The Knights then knocked out those same Rabbitohs in week one of the finals. A clean start for a side plenty had written off.
The trip to Eden Park changed the whole feel of their campaign. Beating the Warriors 12-10 in front of their own crowd was the club’s best result of the season.
It came at a physical cost. Kalyn Ponga left the field seven minutes from the end, in concussion protocol, with Newcastle leading by two.
The fullback is listed again at No 1 in the announced side for this semi-final. His return shifts the balance of the backline.
Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew are on the wings, with Dane Gagai and Bradman Best in the centres. Fletcher Sharpe and Sandon Smith make up the halves.
The pack is built around Tyson Frizell and Cody Hopwood at prop, with Phoenix Crossland at hooker. Francis Manuleleua and Jermaine McEwen are in the second row, while Mat Croker plays at lock.
The big issue here is freshness. This is Newcastle’s third sudden-death match in three weeks, with a trip to Auckland in the legs, and the tank may be running low.
Still, that 12-10 win at Eden Park is a warning. This side knows how to get it done in a tight away game, even without its best player at the finish.
Expected Penrith Panthers line-up: Dylan Edwards, Thomas Jenkins, Blaize Talagi, Casey McLean, Brian To’o, Jack Cole, Nathan Cleary, Moses Leota, Mitch Kenny, Lindsay Smith, Isaiah Papali’i, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo. Interchange: Jack Cogger, Scott Sorensen, Liam Henry, Billy Phillips.
Expected Newcastle Knights line-up: Kalyn Ponga, Dominic Young, Dane Gagai, Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew, Fletcher Sharpe, Sandon Smith, Tyson Frizell, Phoenix Crossland, Cody Hopwood, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua, Mat Croker. Interchange: Harrison Graham, Lachlan Crouch, Pasami Saulo, Dylan Lucas.
NRL prediction Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights
Our prediction: Penrith to win with a -10.5-point handicap
The 1.28 price on a straight Panthers win offers no value, so the play has to be the 10.5-point handicap line.
The points differential makes the case. Penrith finished the regular season at +336, while Newcastle stopped at +42, a gap of almost 300 points across 24 rounds.
The physical factor tips it further. The Knights are playing their third knockout game in three weeks, with the Auckland trip still in their legs, against a Panthers side coming off a full week of rest.
The call is straightforward: Penrith win by more than 10 points and book their place in the Grand Final.
The qualifying final offers one last reference point. Penrith held the Roosters to 12, which is two more than Newcastle conceded in Auckland.
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