- 1 South Korea vs Ecuador: visitors concede 0.75 goals per game, the stat shaping this one
- 2 South Korea: three World Cup games, one goal scored
- 3 Ecuador: one goal conceded in three group-stage games
- 4 Football prediction South Korea vs Ecuador
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
South Korea vs Ecuador: visitors concede 0.75 goals per game, the stat shaping this one 
Ecuador gave up 0.75 goals per game across their latest international run. That is the best defensive record of the two sides meeting on Thursday at 13:00 Paris time at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
South Korea, by contrast, average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded on the same statistical base. So both teams are chipping in at roughly the same rate, but one is far better at keeping the door shut.
Their summer runs explain the gap. Ecuador made it through the 2026 World Cup group stage before going down 2-0 to Mexico on 1 July, while South Korea were out after the first round.
The Korean numbers are ugly. A 2-1 win over Czechia on 12 June, then back-to-back 1-0 defeats to Mexico and South Africa: two blanks, and an exit from a group that was there for the taking.
There is also boardroom baggage for the hosts. Robert Moreno was appointed interim head coach on 1 September 2026 after Hong Myung-bo left, with the deal running until 27 November.
Ecuador, on the other hand, arrive with continuity. Their 2-1 win over Germany on 25 June still stands as the strongest result posted by a South American side outside Brazil and Argentina this summer.
This Suwon meeting carries no points at stake, which changes the picture. Both coaches will use it to look at players, and the recent history of both teams points to a tight game rather than a goal fest.
South Korea: three World Cup games, one goal scored 
South Korea scored in only one of their three 2026 World Cup matches. That 2-1 win over Czechia on 12 June is their only listed game in the tournament.
The next two outings sealed the exit. Beaten 1-0 by Mexico on 19 June and 1-0 by South Africa on 25 June, they went out without finding the net in either match.
The build-up had looked more encouraging. Five goals against Trinidad and Tobago on 31 May, then a 1-0 win over El Salvador on 4 June: two straight wins before departure.
Spring was less reassuring. On 28 March they were thumped 4-0 at home by Ivory Coast, then lost 1-0 in Austria three days later.
Even so, the defensive base is decent over the longer run. Two clean sheets in the sequence and an average of 1.25 goals conceded put South Korea in line with Asia’s top sides.
Son Heung-Min and Cho Gue-Sung share the best scoring return in the squad over that spell, with two each. That tells its own story: no forward has managed to push beyond that.
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Ecuador: one goal conceded in three group-stage games 
Ecuador conceded just one goal across their three group games at the 2026 World Cup. That solidity was enough to carry a side that scored only twice in the same run.
The sequence is worth spelling out. A 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast on 14 June, a 0-0 draw with Curacao on 21 June, then a 2-1 win over Germany on 25 June: three different outcomes, same discipline at the back.
The loss to Mexico ended the run for Ecuador. That 2-0 defeat on 1 July remains the only game in the tournament in which they conceded twice.
Their warm-up friendlies had already shown the same shape. 1-1 draws in Morocco on 27 March and in the Netherlands on 31 March, and Ecuador rarely get blown away, even against stronger sides on paper.
Their attack caught fire late in the build-up. A 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia on 30 May, then 3-0 against Guatemala on 7 June, lifted the side’s average to 1.75 goals per game.
Yeboah stands out as the key man in that spell, with one goal and two assists. Estupinan and Valencia round out the scorers, which points to an attack spread around rather than relying on one player.
Probable South Korea lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Probable Ecuador lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Football prediction South Korea vs Ecuador
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals
Three of South Korea’s last five matches have finished with two goals or fewer. Ecuador’s recent record is similar, with a 0-0 against Curacao and a 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast among the key figures.
Ecuador’s defensive numbers carry real weight here. One goal conceded in three World Cup group games, 0.75 on the full run: this is a side that does not let matches open up.
The friendly setting only strengthens that angle. Controlled tempo, plenty of rotation, nothing at stake: Suwon should stay below three goals, and that is the play on Thursday.
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