- 1 AC Milan vs Lecce: nine goals to nil across the last four home meetings
- 2 AC Milan: three games without a win, but the level is still there
- 3 Lecce: four wins from six league games and a shaky opening spell to fix
- 4 Serie A prediction AC Milan vs Lecce
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
AC Milan vs Lecce: nine goals to nil across the last four home meetings 
A spotless home record, yet the form line is starting to creak at exactly the wrong time. On Sunday 20 September at 20:45 at San Siro, AC Milan close out Serie A matchday five with the visit of Lecce. It has the look of a must-answer game for the Rossoneri before the internationals head off for duty.
Key points to watch:
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Lombardy stronghold: Nine goals scored, none conceded across Lecce’s last four trips to San Siro. Milan have not lost at home to the Salentini since the start of the century.
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Doubt is creeping in: Even with that ideal backdrop, Ruben Amorim’s side are three games without a win, capped by a 2-0 beating by Benfica in the Europa League on Wednesday – the Portuguese coach’s first defeat against his old club.
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No room for a crisis: Drop points on Sunday and the Milan club would spend the international break drowning in two weeks of second-guessing. Pride has to kick in in front of the San Siro crowd.
The detail is telling: the Rossoneri have trailed 2-0 twice in four days, against Lazio and then Benfica. They came back in the first one. They did not in the second.
The league return is still decent enough, with two wins and two draws from four matches. But the momentum has clearly slowed since the draw clawed back against Juventus.
Lecce arrive on six points, the same total as Napoli and Atalanta at this stage. Eusebio Di Francesco has won four of his last six Serie A matches, taking in the end of last season as well.
Lecce’s last win over Milan came in April 2006, whether home or away. Across the last five meetings, they have failed to score in four of them.
One stat shapes the read on this fixture: all seven of Milan’s league goals this season have come in the final half-hour, while Lecce have shipped five of their seven goals in the opening 30 minutes.
So the usual script is turned on its head, which makes this one harder to call than the raw gap in quality might suggest.
AC Milan: three games without a win, but the level is still there 
Milan started the season with two wins, 2-1 in Turin and 2-0 against Venezia. Since then it has been a bit more stop-start, with two draws, 1-1 at Juventus and 2-2 at Lazio.
The draw at the Stadio Olimpico deserves a closer look: two goals down, the Rossoneri hauled themselves back into it in the closing stages. That fightback remains the clearest strength in Amorim’s group.
The loss to Benfica ended the unbeaten run, but it was not the sort of collapse that changes the mood entirely. Milan had gone toe to toe with Juventus until the final seconds only a few days earlier.
Amorim rested Luka Modric on Wednesday night. The Croatian should be back in the starting XI on Sunday, alongside Adrien Rabiot and Mario Gila.
Christian Pulisic is available again after playing the entire second half against Benfica. The American has five goals in as many meetings with Lecce, his favourite Serie A opponent.
The issue is rhythm: he has not started a league game since April. The two supporting spots behind Goncalo Ramos are up for grabs, and reputation alone will not hand him one.
Barring the issue that cropped up on Wednesday, Amorim has a full squad for this one. Not a bad luxury after a week with three matches.
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Lecce: four wins from six league games and a shaky opening spell to fix 
Lecce opened with a 2-0 win in Venice before a 4-0 home defeat to Roma. That was followed by a 1-0 loss at Cagliari, then a 3-2 win over Monza.
That latest game sums up the side nicely: Lassana Coulibaly scored twice and Tiago Gabriel headed in for a 3-1 lead by the 21st minute. After that, Lecce were left hanging on.
That explosive start sits oddly with the team’s defensive trend, with five of their seven goals conceded arriving in the first 30 minutes. There is clearly no consistency in those opening exchanges.
Six points is equal to Napoli and Atalanta, which is no small achievement for a club that was scrapping at the wrong end of the table not long ago. Early Coppa Italia exit to Palermo is the blot on the copybook.
Coulibaly has two goals and an assist since the restart, while Ivan Ilic has two assists. Both should anchor the midfield on Sunday night.
They may be needed even more if Medon Berisha and Omri Gandelman, both doubts, fail to make it. Striker Willem Geubbels is already out injured.
Away form remains Lecce’s weak spot, with much less to offer on the road than at Via del Mare. Even so, they go to San Siro with nothing to lose given the history of this match-up.
Probable AC Milan XI: Maignan ; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic ; Chukwueze, Modric, Musah, Moreira ; Rabiot, Cisse ; Ramos
Probable Lecce XI: Falcone ; Veiga, Siebert, Gabriel, Gallo ; Coulibaly, Ilic, Maleh ; Pierotti, Stulic, Monteiro
Serie A prediction AC Milan vs Lecce
Our prediction: AC Milan to win and Lecce to score no
The last four Lecce visits to San Siro have ended in four Milan wins, with not a single goal conceded, for a combined 9-0. No other Serie A opponent has been this one-sided for Milan.
That trend stretches beyond San Siro too: Lecce have failed to score in four of the last five meetings, and their last win over the Rossoneri dates back to April 2006.
With Modric, Rabiot and Pulisic back in the rotation and a full squad available, Milan have every chance to brush off the European setback against an opponent they have controlled for two decades. The Rossoneri should win it without conceding.
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