Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury – Free WNBA Prediction – September 17, 2026

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury : the Mercury will look to feed off Portland’s pace

Portland host Phoenix in another regular-season clash. The Fire have dropped four of their last five, but that has not exactly forced them to change how they play. At home, Portland still lean into an attack-first style, with games averaging 177 points.

Phoenix are going through a rough spell too, with four losses in their last five outings. But the Mercury should be able to use Portland’s tempo to create more looks on offense. After two meetings this summer, with one win each, this third showdown could again come down to whether Phoenix can punish the gaps left behind by the Fire.

Portland Fire have a few absences

Portland are not exactly arriving in great shape. The Fire have lost four of their last five and their season has been underwhelming overall. Even so, they have stuck with their ultra-aggressive style, especially in front of their own fans. Home games are producing 177 points on average, which says plenty about Portland’s approach.

The Fire are scoring around 86 points per game across the season and 89.4 on average over their last 10 home outings. Even after a long break from competitive action, it is still hard to picture Portland slowing things down much. They should keep piling up possessions and getting to the rim in a hurry.

That approach naturally opens the door for the opponent. Portland are giving up 90.9 points a game this season, a figure that reflects the defensive issues they have had from the start. With four players sidelined – Bridget Carleton, Megan DiLeo, Carla Leite and Teja Oblak – the rotation will also be worth watching.

Phoenix Mercury are chasing a lift in confidence

Phoenix are not exactly much happier as they get back to work. The Mercury also come in off four defeats in five games and their win rate this season is still below 40 percent. Still, they have a profile that should suit what Portland bring to the table.

Phoenix are averaging 84.79 points per game, rising to 85.8 over their last 10 road trips. The Fire should create plenty of possessions, which could give the Mercury a chance to climb above their usual output. Even without being especially sharp, sheer volume can make the difference in a game played at a high pace.

The first two meetings already showed how tight this matchup is. Phoenix won the opener 78-72 before Portland hit back with an 88-85 victory a few weeks later. This time, the Mercury have a decent chance to swing the series back their way, especially if they can make the most of Portland’s defensive frailties. The big doubt is Copper, who is listed as questionable.

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WNBA prediction : Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix Mercury to win

We are backing Phoenix to win here. Both teams have lost four of their last five, but the game script looks more favourable to the Mercury. Portland should keep playing fast and keep pressing forward, a setup that can hand Phoenix more possessions to work with.

The offensive numbers are pretty close, with Portland averaging 86.1 points and Phoenix 84.7. The bigger issue is Portland’s defensive mess, with the Fire allowing 90.9 points per game. Against a team that is not likely to slow things down, the Mercury should get enough chances to get their offense rolling.

The head-to-head is still finely balanced, with each side winning one of the two meetings played this summer. Phoenix took the first clash 78-72, before Portland answered with an 88-85 win. There is no real historical edge to lean on, but the current setup gives the Mercury another shot to come out on top.

Portland also have several absentees to manage, while Copper remains a doubt for Phoenix. Even with that caveat, the expected pace and the Fire’s defensive issues push us toward the Mercury. Phoenix have the tools to exploit the space Portland leave behind and grab an away win.

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