Toulouse vs Le Havre – Free Ligue 1 Prediction – September 19, 2026

Toulouse vs Le Havre: two points apiece and still no win after four rounds

Toulouse and Le Havre both sit on two points after four rounds of Ligue 1. Neither side has won this season.

The match takes place at the Stadium de Toulouse on Saturday 19 September at 20:45 Paris time. This fifth round pits 17th against 16th in the table.

Both clubs are already staring at the drop zone. The side in 16th faces the relegation playoff, while the bottom two go straight down.

The lack of punch up front dominates both records. Toulouse have scored 4 goals, Le Havre only 2, the second-lowest total in the division behind Nice.

Toulouse’s split is even more telling than the raw tally. All four of the TFC’s goals have come away from home, in two 2-2 draws.

The Stadium has therefore not seen a goal from its own team since the restart. Two home games, two defeats, zero goals.

Le Havre are going through a similar spell, only with a tighter shape. The Normandy side have played three home matches for one point and one goal.

Both teams have picked up their points the same way, through draws. Two for Toulouse, two for Le Havre, no wins for either.

Goal difference barely separates the pair. Toulouse are on minus three, Le Havre on minus two after four rounds.

Nice prop up the table with two points as well. Three teams are now packed tightly together at the bottom of Ligue 1.

Toulouse: four goals scored, all on the road

Toulouse have taken 2 points from a possible 12 since the season began. The record breaks down into two draws and two defeats.

The two defeats came at the Stadium, against Lyon on 22 August and then Lille on 3 September. Two games without scoring, for a combined 0-3.

The two draws came away from Haute-Garonne. A 2-2 at Brest on 29 August, then another 2-2 at Lorient on 12 September.

That split is the key story of Toulouse’s start. Four away goals in two matches, none at home in two attempts.

The defence has shipped 7 goals, a pretty ordinary total for a team near the foot of the table. The problem is clearly the finishing in front of their own fans.

The draw at Lorient remains the strongest signal this group has sent. Two goals away from home against a side sitting ninth.

The same thing happened at Brest two weeks earlier. Twice 2-2 away, twice the ability to claw their way back.

The two teams that have beaten them at the Stadium are now first and fourth in Ligue 1. That level of opposition explains some of the blockage.

Le Havre are the first home fixture this season that feels genuinely there for the taking. The question is whether Toulouse’s attack will finally wake up in front of their own crowd.

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Le Havre: two goals in four rounds and one home point

Le Havre have scored 2 goals in four rounds of Ligue 1. Only Nice are worse in the division, with just one.

Their season opened with a 0-1 defeat to Monaco on 23 August. The Normandy side drew a blank in that first home outing.

The only away trip so far earned them a point. A 1-1 draw at Lyon on 29 August, which is easily their best result of the season given the opponent.

The visit of Brest on 5 September ended in a 1-2 defeat. Le Havre struck first, then let the game slip.

Last time out they drew 0-0 with Angers on 12 September. Three home games, one goal scored, one point collected.

The defensive record is still the better of the two sides, though. Four goals conceded in four matches, compared with Toulouse’s seven.

Le Havre have also only let in more than one goal once, against Brest. That low ceiling at the back helps cover up the total lack of threat up front.

Still, they are now three matches without a home win. Defeat to Monaco, defeat to Brest, then that goalless draw with Angers.

A combined total of six goals scored and conceded is the lowest in Ligue 1 after four rounds. No other club has been involved in games this tight.

So Le Havre are a locked-down side that offers almost nothing going forward. Two of their four matches have finished with one goal or fewer.

Toulouse’s home record, though, gives them a rare opening. The hosts have not scored at home at all this season, which dulls much of Le Havre’s attacking weakness.

Probable Toulouse line-up: Not available at the time of publication.

Probable Le Havre AC line-up: Not available at the time of publication.

Ligue 1 prediction Toulouse vs Le Havre

Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals in the match

Three of Le Havre’s four games this season have gone under 2.5 goals, including last week’s 0-0. The Normandy side’s four matches have produced just 6 goals in total.

Toulouse’s two home games have produced three goals in all, and none for the TFC. They have failed to score in 180 minutes at the Stadium.

Toulouse’s four goals and Le Havre’s two have all been scored away from the Stadium. So the venue matters as much as the true level of both attacks.

We are backing under 2.5 goals on Saturday night. Two sides with just six goals between them across eight matches have no obvious reason to suddenly open up.

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