A first-timer leads the simulations
The Opta supercomputer ran the 2026-27 Europa League 10,000 times ahead of the league phase, which opens on Wednesday. Bournemouth lifted the trophy in 14.3% of those runs, more than any other side, and finished top of the 36-team league phase in 15.1% of them.
Bournemouth have never played in Europe before. They lost Andoni Iraola to Liverpool over the summer and let centre-back Marcos Senesi leave on a free to Tottenham, yet Marco Rose has started well enough for the model to back the Cherries across a full season of split domestic and continental duty.
Benfica push them close on 14.0%. Marco Silva took over from José Mourinho and has won five and drawn one of six league games, scoring 21 goals. Across Europe’s top 10 leagues only Slavia Prague and PSV have scored more.
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Who else the model rates
Bayer Leverkusen sit third on 10.2% despite a messy recent past. They finished sixth in the Bundesliga last season and now work under Carles Martínez Novell, whose opening day brought a defeat to promoted Elversberg.
Union Saint-Gilloise come next at 8.6%, which reads high until you remember Bodø/Glimt only just edged them out of Champions League qualifying. Sunderland follow on 8.3%, with an 82.3% chance of reaching the last 16. This is their second European campaign in history, after the 1973-74 Cup Winners’ Cup, and the first in which they will juggle eight continental fixtures alongside the Premier League.
Juventus won 7.8% of simulations and Crystal Palace 7.3%, the latter arriving with genuine recent pedigree after winning the Conference League. Milan took 5.3%, Rennes 3.9%, Lyon 3.2% and Hoffenheim 2.3%.
The teams with no path at all
Two clubs failed to win a single one of the 10,000 simulations: Torreense of Portugal and OFI Crete of Greece. Ararat-Armenia managed exactly one. Celje took two, Lillestrøm and Hapoel Be’er Sheva six apiece, NEC seven.
Aston Villa cannot defend the trophy after their win sent them into the Champions League, so the competition gets a new name on it for the third year running. The final goes to Frankfurt’s Waldstadion on 26 May 2027.
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