A promotion the data never believed in
Hull City finished the 2025-26 Championship season on 73 points and went up through the play-offs. Opta’s expected points model, which simulates every match 10,000 times from the expected goals value of each shot, credited them with 53.1. Only Sheffield Wednesday, on 30.0, came out lower. Had the table matched the model, Hull would have been relegated rather than promoted.
That gap of 19.9 points was the largest overperformance in the division, and it shaped the forecasts. Some predictions had them chasing Derby County’s record low Premier League points total before a ball was kicked.
Four matchdays in, Sergej Jakirovic’s side have eight points. Only two promoted teams in Premier League history have had more at this stage: Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 and Bolton Wanderers in 2001-02, both on 10. Neither went down, and neither did the two other promoted sides who opened with eight.
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They never changed what they were
The explanation the numbers offer is continuity. Hull averaged 45.0% possession in the Championship, fifth lowest in the division. They are down to 29.3% in the Premier League, a steep drop, but the shape of their football has not moved. They were the deepest team in the second tier, starting open-play passing sequences 41.2 metres from their own goal, and they are the deepest in the top flight now at 37.7 metres. They averaged 2.7 passes per sequence last season, fifth fewest, and average 2.5 now, the fewest in the league.
Compare that with Coventry City, promoted alongside them. The Sky Blues had 55.1% of the ball last season, fourth most in the Championship, and have 38.6% now. The drop is similar in size but the mental adjustment is not. Coventry have gone from dictating games to reacting to them.
Hull simply do more of what they already did. They rank fourth for duel success at 53.2%, sixth in the air at 52.3%, joint fifth for tackle attempts with 65 and second for long passes with 237.
Jakirovic is not celebrating yet
“Mostly we will be underdogs, but we’re used to it,” the coach said before the opening win over Manchester United. His stated worry now is the international break and the 13 players leaving his squad for it.
History backs the caution. Hull sat third after nine matchdays in 2008-09 and survived by a point. They took 11 points from seven games in 2013-14 and ended up in a relegation fight. In 2014-15 they lost twice in nine and finished 18th.
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