The eye test and the model disagree
Twenty-one HBCU programmes play FCS football. Four of them get talked about as a tier of their own: South Carolina State out of the MEAC, and Alabama State, Jackson State and Prairie View A&M from the SWAC. Opta’s projection model, updated with Monday’s rankings, only partly agrees.
The metric doing the work is TRACR, or Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster. It measures how well a team performs on every play relative to the strength of whoever is across from them, then splits that into offensive and defensive ratings per 10 drives. Beating a Division II side 87-0 barely moves it.
South Carolina State have done exactly that sort of thing. They are 3-0, they shut out Savannah State 87-0 and Virginia State 66-0, they beat Florida A&M 31-13, and they sit 18th in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25. Chennis Berry’s side carry an 11-game MEAC winning streak and won the Celebration Bowl last year. TRACR puts them 51st nationally, fifth among HBCU teams, behind Delaware State at 49th.
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Prairie View lost twice and rate first
Prairie View A&M are 1-2. They lost 49-30 at Tarleton State and 44-3 at Baylor, and beat Texas Southern 52-14. TRACR has them 31st, the highest-rated HBCU team in the country, with the best offensive rating too.
That is the model rewarding schedule. Baylor are a Power Four opponent and Tremaine Jackson’s transfer-heavy roster spent September being tested rather than padding numbers. Jackson State, by contrast, are 2-0 against Tennessee State and Edward Waters with two Division II games and no FBS opponent on an 11-game slate. They rate 33rd, second among HBCUs, with the model likely to trim that as the sample grows.
Alabama State land 40th after a 34-17 loss at Troy and wins over Southern and Lane. Quarterback Andrew Body has not yet found the form he had before a season-ending injury last November.
Where it gets settled
The schedule does the arguing from here. South Carolina State visit Furman on Saturday and close the regular season against Delaware State, the team currently rated above them. Jackson State travel to Bethune-Cookman and Alabama State, who host them on 14 November before facing Prairie View a week later.
Three SWAC East teams are barred from the postseason on Academic Progress Rate penalties, which thins the field further.
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