- 1 Inter Milan vs Udinese: 2.8 goals a game at home, and a champion that needs waking up
- 2 Inter Milan: perfect in the league, with Lautaro Martinez doing the damage
- 3 Udinese: four wins from their last six away games, but an injury list that keeps growing
- 4 Serie A prediction Inter Milan vs Udinese
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 Nothing on us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Inter Milan vs Udinese: 2.8 goals a game at home, and a champion that needs waking up 
In the 2026 calendar year, Inter are averaging 2.8 goals per Serie A match at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. That is the number that best fits this fourth round fixture, set for Monday 14 September at 20:45 Paris time.
The reigning champions go into Monday night with three wins from three and a combined goal difference of 8-3. The results are there. The polish, not so much.
The week, though, has left a mark. Beaten 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu by Real Madrid in the opening game of the league phase, Inter suffered their first loss of the campaign after a couple of costly defensive mistakes.
Udinese also tasted defeat for the first time this season, losing 1-2 at home to Lazio. Both sides arrive with a fresh setback in common.
The recent head-to-head record is heavily tilted one way. Inter have won 18 of the last 23 league meetings with the Friuli side.
But Udinese have a reason to believe. Last season, they won in Milan and snapped a run of seven straight defeats on this ground. The old barrier is gone.
Cristian Chivu also has to juggle a tight schedule, with a trip to Rome coming up before the international break. Rotation is very much part of the picture.
The table adds another layer to the evening. Inter play after AS Roma, so they will have to answer if the Romans win in Turin.
Both teams also come into this from very different losing patterns. Inter were caught cold at the Santiago Bernabeu. Udinese fell apart in the final 15 minutes against Lazio.
Lautaro Martinez is the man to watch. The Argentina striker has scored seven Serie A goals against the Friuli side, including the winner in Udine last season.
Inter Milan: perfect in the league, with Lautaro Martinez doing the damage 
Three games, three wins: 4-1 against Monza, 1-0 at Cagliari, then 3-2 against Napoli. Eight scored, three conceded.
That last win sums up Inter’s season so far. Down 2-0 to Napoli, the Milan club turned it around thanks to a Lautaro Martinez double, with the captain’s winner coming in stoppage time after Marcus Thuram had levelled it.
The Argentina forward arrives with a habit of hurting this opponent. Lautaro has seven Serie A goals against Udinese, including the decisive strike in Udine last season.
The Madrid defeat, though, exposed a weakness. Inter handed Real a two-goal cushion before Carlos Augusto pulled one back late, but the comeback never really got going.
Chivu used that trip to hand Curtis Jones a start, a week after the English midfielder made an impact against Napoli. He should have a strong chance of keeping his place on Monday.
Federico Dimarco, missing at the Bernabeu because of a minor fitness issue, is expected to return on the left. The best player in last season’s Serie A comes back at the right time.
Djed Spence remains out, having only returned to training on Thursday. That is the only real doubt in what is otherwise close to a full squad.
The schedule is relentless for Inter. After Monday, they head to Rome before the international break, which could lead Chivu to shuffle his pack.
Even so, the raw numbers still point to control. Three wins from three and a total of 8-3 leave the Nerazzurri in a strong position.
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Udinese: four wins from their last six away games, but an injury list that keeps growing 
Udinese’s record so far reads like this: a 1-1 draw with Como, a 3-2 win at Monza, then a 1-2 home defeat to Lazio. Seven scored and seven conceded in three games. Open stuff.
That loss to Lazio stopped a decent run in its tracks. Kosta Runjaic’s side led through captain Jesper Karlstrom before shipping two goals in the last quarter of an hour.
But the away form still has bite. Including the end of last season, Udinese have won four of their last six away matches, with this campaign’s first road trip ending in victory at Monza.
Keinan Davis is the danger man. He provided the assist for Karlstrom’s goal, and he also scored and set one up on Udinese’s last trip to Milan.
The problem is elsewhere: the squad is thinning out fast. Jakub Piotrowski and Oumar Solet picked up injuries against Lazio, adding to Nicolò Zaniolo, Matteo Palma, Juan Arizala and Alessandro Zanoli.
Runjaic, who guided the club to 10th place last season, will have to reshuffle. Their Coppa Italia run and unbeaten start show this group can adapt, though.
The warning sign, though, is at the back. Udinese have conceded two goals in each of their last two league matches.
Even so, last season’s win in Milan gives them something to hang on to. That result ended seven straight defeats on this pitch.
Runjaic will have to rebuild his midfield without Piotrowski and Zaniolo. A lot will rest on Jesper Karlstrom, already on the scoresheet against Lazio.
Probable Inter Milan XI: J. Martinez ; Akanji, Stones, Bastoni ; Diouf, Zielinski, Calhanoglu, Jones, Dimarco ; L. Martinez, Esposito
Probable Udinese XI: Okoye ; Abankwah, Kabasele, Ebosse ; Vojvoda, Karlstrom, Miller, Kamara ; Ekkelenkamp, Gomez ; Davis
Serie A prediction Inter Milan vs Udinese
Our prediction: Inter Milan to win and over 2.5 goals in the match
Inter are averaging 2.8 Serie A goals a game at the Meazza in the 2026 calendar year, and Udinese have conceded two goals in each of their last two league outings. Both numbers point the same way.
The historical edge backs the first half of the bet: 18 Inter wins from the last 23 league meetings. Lautaro Martinez alone has scored seven of those goals.
With six absentees on the Udinese side and Dimarco back on the left, Inter have the tools to get the job done while still leaving room for goals. Back the Milan side to win with more than 2.5 goals in the game.
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